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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›TCU @ ARIZ›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TCU
ARIZONA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 22:15 ET|ARIZONA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
1-1
72
84
64
22%
65
95
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
43FPI
ARIZB12ARIZONA
1-1
61
68
90
65%
42
86
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TCU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
43
PROE
81
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE43p
43
PROE81p
81
TEMPO65p
65
ARIZ41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
3
PROE
76
TEMPO
42
EXPLOSIVE3p
3
PROE76p
76
TEMPO42p
42
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTCUARIZONA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Josh HooverPORTAL · INDIANA · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKen SealsQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB86%Kaleb Elarms-OrrDRAFTED · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNamdi ObiazorDRAFTED · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Eric McAlisterWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ RogersTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase CurtisTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Coltin DeeryOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarson BrunoOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRemington StricklandOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Bud ClarkDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChanning CanadaCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin JordanS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB53%Kevorian BarnesRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent BattleRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate PalmerPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL31%Devean DealEDGE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor LingrenDT · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJaden Craig · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDJack Daulton · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBMichael Short · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHNoriel Dominguez · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJames Scott · SIGNEE ★3Khamill Pruitt · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Reid · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLNoah McKinney · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEVincent Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Devan Robison · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBTeon Parks · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJason Bradford · SIGNEE ★4Zach Taylor · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBLandon Walker · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINESAce Martin · SIGNEE ★3G'Ivori Graham · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLCheta Ofili · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHCarter Buck · SIGNEE ★4Jesse Ford · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TCU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.956 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.938 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.267 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545478051 OF 5 GRADED
RB63638110082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE666671562110 OF 21 GRADED
OL53537250207 OF 20 GRADED
DL41416774218 OF 21 GRADED
LB46467464125 OF 12 GRADED
DB53536988219 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO22%72
RECRUITING CLASS#47 · 4/22 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
8585
EXPLOSIVENESS
8484
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTCU OFFENSEARIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
19OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA DEFENSE
TCU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN CRAIGQBPORTAL · HARVARD
474TH YR3278★3+1
ADAM SCHOBELQBRET
472ND YR—92★4—
JACK DAULTONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—73★3—
JAYDEN MAPLESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—31★3—
DAVID POTTERQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4462%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4564%6%
SECONDARYDB
5742%14%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
53
RET
50
DL
92OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
80OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE
TCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2050% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN TAYLOR-WHITFIELDOLRET
834TH YR9570★30
JAHEIM BUCHANONOLPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
734TH YR9445★3+50
CADE BENNETTOLRET
654TH YR9685★3+41
RYAN HUGHESOLRET
533RD YR—65★3-22 2025
COOPER POWERSOLRET
524TH YR6867★3+44
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DOMINIC LOLESIODLRET
654TH YR—45★3-17 2025
TAYE BROWNLBRET
604TH YR9852★3+2
TRE SMITHDLRET
574TH YR9789★3+21
JULIAN SAVAIINAEADLRET
554TH YR5577★3—
KAISI LAFITAGADLTRUE FR
521ST YR—47★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
63
RET
100
DL
92OF 138
DL RET
62
LB
80OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE
TCU RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMY PAYNERBRET
593RD YR8386★4+1
JON DENMANRBRET
492ND YR5165★3-49
LANDON WALKERRBPORTAL · COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES
374TH YR—45★3—
AMANTE MARTINRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—84★3—
G'IVORI GRAHAMRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—77★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554462%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454564%6%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETCU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
66
RET
56
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYARIZONA DEFENSE
TCU PASS CATCHERSn=2144% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ED SMALLWRRET
552ND YR5184★4+22
KARI ASHLEYTETRUE FR
524TH YR2455★3—
JEREMY SCOTTWRPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
523RD YR6745★3+26
JACOBE HAYESWRRET
492ND YR2451★3—
KA'MORREUN PIMPTONTERET
464TH YR4094★4+9
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAY'VION COLECBRET
594TH YR9345★3-11
DWIGHT BOOTLE IICBPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
574TH YR7145★3-33
MALCOLM HARTZOG JR.STRUE FR
544TH YR9964★3-27
JOHNO PRICESRET
514TH YR449★2—
CAM CHAPASPORTAL · NORTHERN COLORADO
503RD YR—78★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.2
50.5
— OFFENSE
42.3
60.0
— DEFENSE
42.2
41.0
SP+ OVERALL
11.3
10.3
FPI
6.3
6.0
ELO
1598
1608
TALENT
731
700
PRODUCTION
77
78
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.22
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
OFF EFFICIENCY
68
52
DEF EFFICIENCY
63
81
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
63
62
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
35
71
FINISHING DRIVES
69
36
FIELD POSITION
35
3
TURNOVER MARGIN
28
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
PASS RATE
49.3%
54.3%
PACE
26.5s
27.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.6%
48.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.2%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
64.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TCU, ORANGE = ARIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE