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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›CLEM @ SYR›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CLEMSON
SYRACUSE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|JMA WIRELESS DOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
46FPI
CLEMACCCLEMSON
1-1
89
58
78
41%
27
65
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
60FPI
SYRACCSYRACUSE
1-1
75
50
75
35%
98
69
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CLEM40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
5
PROE
87
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE5p
5
PROE87p
87
TEMPO27p
27
SYR71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
78
PROE
38
TEMPO
98
EXPLOSIVE78p
78
PROE38p
38
TEMPO98p
98
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CLEMRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.3
CLEMSON won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SYRRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.8
SYRACUSE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCLEMSONSYRACUSE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB83%Cade KlubnikDRAFTED · 83% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB73%Adam RandallDRAFTED · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL64%Peter WoodsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. ParkerDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMonte CapehartDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Blake MillerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan LinthicumC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan LeighOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Ricardo JonesPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvieon TerrellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil BarnesS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Wade WoodazDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Antonio WilliamsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh SappTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTait Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Brock Bradley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChris Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SMUREFILLED
DLMarkus Strong · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMALondon Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADODevarrick Woods · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChance Barclay · SIGNEE ★4Leo Delaney · SIGNEE ★4Grant Wise · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBDonovan Starr · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNElliot Washington II · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEPolo Anderson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Reilly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TENaeem Burroughs · SIGNEE ★4Gordon Sellars III · SIGNEE ★4Connor Salmin · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CLEMSON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.781 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.486 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.365 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171916162 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353897274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE62629398268 OF 26 GRADED
OL61618980216 OF 21 GRADED
DL575788562212 OF 22 GRADED
LB585879100125 OF 12 GRADED
DB565672562011 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO52%89
RECRUITING CLASS#20 · 10/22 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 11 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SYRFRAN BROWN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
9090
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLEM OFFENSESYR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
71
RET
61
NATIONAL
83OF 136
RET
40
FULL DEFENSESYRACUSE DEFENSE
CLEM QUARTERBACKSn=639% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTOPHER VIZZINAQBRET
504TH YR5297★4-23
TAIT REYNOLDSQBTRUE FR
481ST YR1882★3—
CHRIS DENSONQBRET
522ND YR—79★3—
TRENT PEARMANQBRET
384TH YR——UNR—
BROCK BRADLEYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4841%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
5354%8%
SECONDARYDB
6288%23%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
61
RET
80
DL
78OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
48OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7SYRACUSE DEFENSE
CLEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EASTON WAREOLRET
522ND YR—86★4—
ELYJAH THURMONOLRET
523RD YR—92★4—
CHAPMAN PENDERGRASSOLRET
514TH YR——UNR—
HARRIS SEWELLOLRET
504TH YR—94★4+5 2025
MASON WADEOLRET
503RD YR—76★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARTAVIUS FLOUNOYDLPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
642ND YR5864★3-8
TUNMISE ADELEYEDLPORTAL · UNLV
594TH YR9064★3+31
DILLAN FONTUSDLPORTAL · MARYLAND
574TH YR8378★3-27
RASHARD PERRYDLRET
564TH YR6652★3-7
NISSI OGBEBORDLRET
552ND YR4157★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
53
RET
72
DL
78OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
48OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7SYRACUSE DEFENSE
CLEM RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JOHNSON JR.RBPORTAL · SMU
584TH YR6078★3+33
JARVIS GREENRBRET
514TH YR3167★3-19
DAVID EZIOMUMERBRET
473RD YR4088★4+31
GIDEON DAVIDSONRBRET
472ND YR5497★4+5
JAY HAYNESRBRET
584TH YR—64★3+33 2024
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554841%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455354%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
62
RET
98
DB
21OF 138
DB RET
88
SECONDARYSYRACUSE DEFENSE
CLEM PASS CATCHERSn=262% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYANT WESCO JR.WRRET
743RD YR9198★4+25
T.J. MOOREWRRET
653RD YR9799★4+4
OLSEN PATT-HENRYTERET
544TH YR6585★4+2
GORDON SELLARS IIIWRTRUE FR
481ST YR—94★4—
CHRISTIAN BENTANCURTERET
473RD YR—97★4-29
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SYR SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS PEALDBRET
663RD YR8164★3-4
DEMETRES SAMUEL JR.DBRET
532ND YR8091★4-23
BRAHEEM LONG JR.DBRET
533RD YR7544★3+36
CORNELL PERRYDBRET
514TH YR7152★3+62
JAI EUGENE JR.DBPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
503RD YR6464★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SYR
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.7
50.7
— OFFENSE
39.1
53.1
— DEFENSE
32.3
48.3
SP+ OVERALL
8.1
1.7
FPI
5.3
1.2
ELO
1558
1287
TALENT
863
746
PRODUCTION
84
45
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
+25
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.52
0.21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SYR
OFF EFFICIENCY
53
19
DEF EFFICIENCY
86
13
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
20
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
24
FINISHING DRIVES
68
25
FIELD POSITION
30
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
40
12
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SYR
PASS RATE
52.1%
55.6%
PACE
30.3s
22.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.9%
53.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
66.0%
72.7%
PLAYS / GAME
59.5
81.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLEM, ORANGE = SYR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE