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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›VT @ SMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VIRGINIA TECH
SMU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 19:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
29FPI
VTACCVIRGINIA TECH
3-0
81
74
50
37%
97
74
0.0
—
—
HOME
#16AP
26FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-1
78
76
71
57%
56
58
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
VT56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
55
PROE
16
TEMPO
97
EXPLOSIVE55p
55
PROE16p
16
TEMPO97p
97
SMU76CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
93
TEMPO
56
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE93p
93
TEMPO56p
56
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
VTRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
VIRGINIA TECH won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIA TECHSMU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Kyron DronesQB · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB54%Jaden KellerLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WoodsonPORTAL · ALABAMA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael ShortPORTAL · TCU · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Ben BellDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKody HuismanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKelvin Gilliam Jr.DL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Terion StewartRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONP.J. PrioleauRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE35%Donavon GreeneWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah SpencerWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron SeldonPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Tomas RimacOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB18%Isaiah CashS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEthan Grunkemeyer · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEBryce Baker · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINATroy Huhn · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBKeon Wylie · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETerry Wiggins · SIGNEE ★4Mathieu Lamah · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLDaniel Jennings · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETyson Harley · SIGNEE ★4T-Ron Richardson Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBMessiah Mickens · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TELuke Reynolds · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEQue'Sean Brown · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEJeff Exinor Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLThomas Wilder · SIGNEE ★4Benjamin Eziuka · SIGNEE ★3Marlen Bright · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBZaevion Cleveland · SIGNEE ★4Amauri Polydor · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
61.797 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.992 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.793 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565690042 OF 4 GRADED
RB8282728186 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE5252804125CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL474774022CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL525266452415 OF 24 GRADED
LB47477352108 OF 10 GRADED
DB727275742112 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE81st81
BLUE-CHIP RATIO30%80
RECRUITING CLASS#30 · 8/23 BC78
CLASS RANK TREND+15 · 3 CYCLES80
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 27 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VTJAMES FRANKLINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5555
PACE
5252
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2323
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HAVOC
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVT OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
56
RET
0
NATIONAL
16OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE
VT QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN GRUNKEMEYERQBPORTAL · PENN STATE
562ND YR5898★4+30
BRYCE BAKERQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
501ST YR—78★3—
TROY HUHNQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—88★4—
KELDEN RYANQBRET
351ST YR—67★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
6069%10%
SECONDARYDB
5043%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
30OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
VT OFFENSIVE LINEn=22100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LOGAN HOWLANDOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
643RD YR—64★3-24 2025
MONTAVIOUS CUNNINGHAMOLRET
524TH YR—78★3-15 2025
JUSTIN TERRYOLPORTAL · OHIO STATE
502ND YR—64★3—
KYLE ALTUNEROLRET
492ND YR—85★3+27 2025
LAYTH GHANNAMOLRET
473RD YR—86★4-15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM ALCORN-CROWDERDLPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
544TH YR6264★3+28
TREY WILSONDERET
514TH YR—78★3+21 2025
KEVIN ALLENDLRET
503RD YR—61★3-33 2025
BRANDON MIYAZONOLBRET
504TH YR—44★3-47 2025
XAVIER WRIGHTLBRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
82
RET
81
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
30OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
VT RUNNING BACKSn=819% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCELLOUS HAWKINSRBRET
684TH YR6945★3+25
TYLER MASONRBRET
512ND YR2779★3-27
DARIUS TAYLORRBRET
503RD YR—87★4—
MESSIAH MICKENSRBTRUE FR
501ST YR—91★4—
JEFFREY OVERTON JR.RBRET
491ST YR3885★4+38
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456069%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
52
RET
41
DB
79OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYSMU DEFENSE
VT PASS CATCHERSn=2559% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUE'SEAN BROWNWRPORTAL · DUKE
713RD YR9498★4+29
KEYLEN ADAMSWRRET
522ND YR1192★4—
AYDEN GREENEWRRET
514TH YR9480★3+11
TYSEER DENMARKWRPORTAL · PENN STATE
502ND YR2964★3—
CHANZ WIGGINSWRRET
502ND YR886★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARVIS LEESPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
864TH YR—45★3-1 2025
JAYVON THOMASCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
544TH YR—64★3-37 2025
LA'MODRICK SPENCERSRET
534TH YR—54★3—
MARCELLUS BARNES JR.CBRET
523RD YR—89★3-2 2025
JAVION HOLIDAYCBRET
502ND YR—75★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
61.5
61.2
— OFFENSE 2025
64.7
64.2
— DEFENSE 2025
58.2
58.1
SP+ OVERALL
12.7
15.3
FPI
11.6
12.2
ELO
1489
1706
TALENT
769
765
PRODUCTION
74
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.30
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
43
61
DEF EFFICIENCY
17
67
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
54
93
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
67
FINISHING DRIVES
71
85
FIELD POSITION
92
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
17
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
PASS RATE
51.1%
53.0%
PACE
23.4s
27.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.1%
55.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.0%
76.9%
PLAYS / GAME
77.0
66.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.3%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VT, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE