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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›TEX @ MIZ›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS
MISSOURI
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#1AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
3-0
99
62
81
72%
96
88
0.0
—
—
HOME
#20AP
32FPI
MIZSECMISSOURI
3-0
87
82
99
42%
43
93
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TEX65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
74
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE74p
74
TEMPO96p
96
MIZ44CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
66
PROE
23
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE66p
66
PROE23p
23
TEMPO43p
43
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
TEXRECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.8-0.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+25.7
TEXAS won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIZRECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.3
MISSOURI won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXASMISSOURI2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB89%Anthony Hill Jr.DRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey MooreDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLiona LefauPORTAL · COLORADO · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB89%Quintrevion WisnerPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BaxterPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian ClarkPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Jack EndriesDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker LivingstonePORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre Moore Jr.PORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%Michael TaaffeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik MuhammadDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon GuilbeauDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL34%DJ CampbellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor StrohOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick BrooksOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL19%Cole BrevardDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis ShawDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Matthew CaldwellQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRasheem Biles · PORTAL ★4 · PITTSBURGHTyler Atkinson · SIGNEE ★5Rocky Cummings · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBHollywood Smothers · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATERaleek Brown · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONA STATEDerrek Cooper · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TECam Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · AUBURNSterling Berkhalter · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTKohen Brown · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBBo Mascoe · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSJohn Meredith III · SIGNEE ★5Samari Matthews · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLMelvin Siani · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTJohn Turntine III · SIGNEE ★4Nicolas Robertson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLIan Geffrard · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASRichard Wesley · SIGNEE ★5Jamarion Carlton · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBDia Bell · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.280 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.361 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.581 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666610010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454971686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE707089722011 OF 20 GRADED
OL606084541912 OF 19 GRADED
DL626294831816 OF 18 GRADED
LB73738326118 OF 11 GRADED
DB646494822210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO61%94
RECRUITING CLASS#7 · 17/26 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIZELI DRINKWITZ7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7878
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
6464
EXPLOSIVENESS
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HAVOC
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEX OFFENSEMIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
66
RET
100
NATIONAL
3OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSEMISSOURI DEFENSE
TEX QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ARCH MANNINGQBRET
813RD YR85100★5+1
KARLE LACEY JR.QBRET
471ST YR—94★4—
DIA BELLQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—99★5—
MJ MORRISQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
464TH YR—45★3-27 2025
LUKE DUNHAMQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7853%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
7478%55%
SECONDARYDB
6142%38%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
60
RET
54
DL
5OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
8OF 138
LB RET
78
FRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE
TEX OFFENSIVE LINEn=1946% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVOR GOOSBYOLRET
883RD YR8785★4+13
MELVIN SIANIOLPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
874TH YR9398★4+3
BRANDON BAKEROLRET
833RD YR8199★5+20 2025
LAURENCE SEYMORE IIIOLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
644TH YR9078★3+43
PARIS PATTERSONOLPORTAL · SMU
523RD YR2164★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARQUIS GRACIALDTRET
584TH YR7295★4-47
STERLING WEBBDTRET
584TH YR9889★3+2
DAEDEN HOPKINSEDGERET
522ND YR4492★4—
ROBERT WOODYARD JR.LBPORTAL · AUBURN
524TH YR7989★3-13
DARRIS SMITHEDGERET
514TH YR7292★4+46
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
54
RET
16
DL
5OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
8OF 138
LB RET
78
FRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE
TEX RUNNING BACKSn=884% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RALEEK BROWNRBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
724TH YR9297★4+12
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRBPORTAL · NC STATE
713RD YR9499★4+14
MICHAEL TERRY IIIRBRET
511ST YR1598★4-27
JAMES SIMONRBRET
491ST YR4894★4-42
RYAN NIBLETTRBRET
493RD YR3798★4-15
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557853%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457478%55%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
70
RET
72
DB
23OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYMISSOURI DEFENSE
TEX PASS CATCHERSn=2028% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMMETT MOSLEY VWRRET
613RD YR9285★3+23
RYAN WINGOWRRET
553RD YR9699★4+21
CAM COLEMANWRPORTAL · AUBURN
553RD YR98100★5-4
SPENCER SHANNONTERET
533RD YR3774★3—
EMAREE WINSTONTERET
522ND YR3380★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIONE LAULEACBPORTAL · OREGON
554TH YR5685★3-4
ELIJAH DOTSONSPORTAL · MICHIGAN
532ND YR5092★4—
CJ BASS IIISRET
522ND YR4188★3—
JAYDEN MCGREGORYSTRUE FR
501ST YR3184★3—
JACKSON HANCOCKSRET
503RD YR3474★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.6
44.4
— OFFENSE
54.6
45.6
— DEFENSE
38.6
43.3
SP+ OVERALL
25.0
15.1
FPI
28.1
10.5
ELO
1935
1690
TALENT
985
808
PRODUCTION
96
85
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.61
0.35
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
OFF EFFICIENCY
70
42
DEF EFFICIENCY
59
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
24
66
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
78
3
FINISHING DRIVES
77
50
FIELD POSITION
31
1
TURNOVER MARGIN
65
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
PASS RATE
47.6%
43.2%
PACE
23.6s
28.1s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
42%
14%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.9%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.8%
63.5%
PLAYS / GAME
76.3
64.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.8%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEX, ORANGE = MIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE