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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›TA&M @ SC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS A&M
SOUTH CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#10AP
8FPI
TA&MSECTEXAS A&M
2-0
96
92
96
73%
81
99
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
21FPI
SCSECSOUTH CAROLINA
2-0
90
36
79
69%
61
75
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TA&M45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
12
PROE
41
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE12p
12
PROE41p
41
TEMPO81p
81
SC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
48
PROE
47
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE48p
48
PROE47p
47
TEMPO61p
61
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TA&MRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.4
TEXAS A&M won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SCRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
SOUTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS A&MSOUTH CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL75%Chase BisontisDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDametrious CrownoverDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey Zuhn IIIDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL67%Cashius HowellDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler OnyedimDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlbert RegisDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE55%Theo Melin OhrstromPORTAL · SMU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKC ConcepcionDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate BoerkircherDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Taurean YorkLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONScooby WilliamsLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Le'Veon MossRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ SmithRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmari DanielsRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Will Lee IIIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyreek ChappellCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB5%Miles O'NeillPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLWilkin Formby · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMASam Roseborough · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLAnto Saka · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNBryce Perry-Wright · SIGNEE ★4Tristian Givens · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEIsaiah Horton · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAAaron Gregory · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Warren · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTamarion Watkins · SIGNEE ★4Qui Beck · SIGNEE ★4Tank King · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBKJ Edwards · SIGNEE ★4Carsyn Baker · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBRickey Gibson III · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEBrandon Arrington · SIGNEE ★5Vic Singleton · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBHelaman Casuga · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS A&M
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.372 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.964 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.969 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB59599010052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858967274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE646487582313 OF 23 GRADED
OL747480481713 OF 17 GRADED
DL757589462016 OF 20 GRADED
LB81818454126 OF 12 GRADED
DB606093702513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO76%99
RECRUITING CLASS#10 · 22/27 BC93
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SCSHANE BEAMER6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TA&MMIKE ELKO3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
4040
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTA&M OFFENSESC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
59
RET
100
NATIONAL
12OF 136
RET
41
FULL DEFENSESOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
TA&M QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCEL REEDQBRET
624TH YR8989★4+12
BRADY HARTQBRET
492ND YR2393★4—
HELAMAN CASUGAQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
ELI MORCOSQBRET
352ND YR—59★3—
PAXTON LANDQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6032%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
4888%44%
SECONDARYDB
6366%35%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
74
RET
48
DL
32OF 138
DL RET
32
LB
67OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
TA&M OFFENSIVE LINEn=1752% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARK NABOU JR.OLRET
704TH YR—81★3+26 2025
WILKIN FORMBYOLPORTAL · ALABAMA
554TH YR—98★4-5 2025
TYREE ADAMSOLPORTAL · LSU
554TH YR—78★3-4 2025
ROBERT BOURDONOLRET
543RD YR—86★4—
ASHTON FUNKOLRET
503RD YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KELBY COLLINSDLPORTAL · ALABAMA
604TH YR7185★3+8
TROY PIKESDTRET
563RD YR7445★3-12
GABRIEL BROWNLOW-DINDYDLRET
544TH YR6489★3-42
TOMIWA DUROJAIYEDLPORTAL · ILLINOIS
534TH YR8298★4-3
NOAH CLARKDLTRUE FR
521ST YR289★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
96
PERF
58
RET
72
DL
32OF 138
DL RET
32
LB
67OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
TA&M RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RUEBEN OWENS IIRBRET
574TH YR9199★5-49 2023
KJ EDWARDSRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1498★4—
CARSYN BAKERRBTRUE FR
511ST YR1892★4—
JAMARION MORROWRBRET
452ND YR4988★4-42
TIGER RIDEN JR.RBRET
502ND YR—85★4+8 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556032%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454888%44%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS A&M OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
64
RET
58
DB
18OF 138
DB RET
66
SECONDARYSOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
TA&M PASS CATCHERSn=2342% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARIO CRAVERWRRET
833RD YR9097★4+27
ISAIAH HORTONWRPORTAL · ALABAMA
554TH YR97100★4+1
ASHTON BETHEL-ROMANWRRET
543RD YR7891★4+31
AARON GREGORYWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—97★4—
KELSHAUN JOHNSONWRRET
502ND YR2293★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VICARI SWAINDBRET
823RD YR8693★4-9
PEYTON WILLIAMSDBRET
634TH YR8481★3+47
JUDGE COLLIERDBRET
514TH YR9463★3-20
J'ZAVIEN CURRENCEDBTRUE FR
501ST YR698★4—
KOSCI BARNESDBTRUE FR
491ST YR291★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.9
54.0
— OFFENSE
47.1
65.0
— DEFENSE
44.6
43.0
SP+ OVERALL
24.2
16.9
FPI
23.1
14.7
ELO
1890
1763
TALENT
933
863
PRODUCTION
94
83
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
0
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.76
0.53
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
OFF EFFICIENCY
77
16
DEF EFFICIENCY
97
48
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
49
80
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
1
83
FINISHING DRIVES
83
5
FIELD POSITION
7
94
TURNOVER MARGIN
11
63
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
PASS RATE
46.2%
44.4%
PACE
25.2s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.9%
59.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.0%
61.5%
PLAYS / GAME
71.5
67.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
5.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TA&M, ORANGE = SC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE