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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›BYU @ UTAH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BYU
UTAH
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RICE-ECCLES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#11AP
19FPI
BYUB12BYU
3-0
58
86
84
79%
20
59
0.0
—
—
HOME
#17AP
15FPI
UTAHB12UTAH
3-0
58
95
53
68%
77
66
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BYU23CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
22
TEMPO
20
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE22p
22
TEMPO20p
20
UTAH63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
87
PROE
26
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE87p
87
PROE26p
26
TEMPO77p
77
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTAHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.4
UTAH won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBYUUTAH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE73%Carsen RyanDRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker KingstonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase RobertsWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Tanner WallS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMory BambaCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTayvion BeasleyPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Jack KellyDRAFTED · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax AlfordPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL33%Isaiah JattaOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin LeausaG · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWeylin LapuahoG · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL32%Logan LutuiDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn TaumoepeauDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB11%Enoch NawahineRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB1%McCae HillsteadPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TERoger Saleapaga II · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONWalker Lyons · PORTAL ★4 · USCKyler Kasper · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMatthew Mason · SIGNEE ★3Antonio Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBCade Uluave · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAAdam Bywater · SIGNEE ★3Braxton Lindsey · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLPaki Finau · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONZak Yamauchi · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDBott Mulitalo · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLLopeti Moala · SIGNEE ★4Nehemiah Kolone · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
QBRyder Lyons · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BYU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.897 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.587 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.197 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB76764810052 OF 5 GRADED
RB80805266107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE727268412317 OF 23 GRADED
OL676749731911 OF 19 GRADED
DL575752862016 OF 20 GRADED
LB626255411310 OF 13 GRADED
DB636349512114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%59
RECRUITING CLASS#21 · 7/21 BC85
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 9 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTAHMORGAN SCALLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BYUKALANI SITAKE11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HAVOC
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBYU OFFENSEUTAH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
76
RET
100
NATIONAL
18OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSEUTAH DEFENSE
BYU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR BACHMEIERQBRET
652ND YR7445★3+18
TREYSON BOURGUETQBRET
444TH YR6378★3-44
ENOCH WATSONQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
JOHN SANDERSQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
OWEN GEILMANQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5767%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
6297%10%
SECONDARYDB
5457%12%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
67
RET
73
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
21OF 138
LB RET
97
FRONT-7UTAH DEFENSE
BYU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1927% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYLE SFARCIOCOLRET
714TH YR—64★3+50 2025
BRUCE MITCHELLOLRET
644TH YR—18★3+27 2025
SONNY MAKASINIOLRET
634TH YR—22★3+37 2025
ANDREW GENTRYOLRET
614TH YR—64★3-7 2025
SIOSIUA LATU-FINAUOLRET
511ST YR—65★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JIREH MOEDTPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
722ND YR—64★3—
PUPU SEPULONADTRET
622ND YR4673★3—
LANCE HOLTZCLAWDERET
564TH YR7464★3+36
KASH DILLONDERET
563RD YR6371★3+1
JOHNATHAN HALLLBRET
524TH YR9275★3+3
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
80
RET
66
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
67
LB
21OF 138
LB RET
97
FRONT-7UTAH DEFENSE
BYU RUNNING BACKSn=1034% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LJ MARTINRBRET
854TH YR9983★3+6
SIONE MOARBRET
562ND YR485★3+14
DEVAUGHN EKARBTRUE FR
521ST YR——★3—
LOGAN PAYNERBRET
521ST YR——UNR—
PRESTON REXRBRET
474TH YR2732★3+9
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS20% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555767%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456297%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBYU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
72
RET
41
DB
57OF 138
DB RET
57
SECONDARYUTAH DEFENSE
BYU PASS CATCHERSn=2359% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WALKER LYONSTEPORTAL · USC
633RD YR6492★4-3
LEGEND GLASKERWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
REGGIE FRISCHKNECHTWRRET
492ND YR21—UNR—
KYLER KASPERWRPORTAL · OREGON
473RD YR4864★3-56
KEAYEN NEADTERET
464TH YR—5★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTAH SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON BENNEESRET
823RD YR81—UNR-11
ELIJAH DAVISCBRET
724TH YR—70★3-11 2025
RABBIT EVANSSRET
704TH YR56—UNR+42
ELIJAH REEDCBPORTAL · AKRON
684TH YR9045★3-5
ROCK CALDWELLCBRET
534TH YR5185★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTAH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
56.4
48.5
— OFFENSE
64.6
60.8
— DEFENSE
48.1
36.3
SP+ OVERALL
16.8
14.8
FPI
15.2
16.5
ELO
1692
1907
TALENT
689
696
PRODUCTION
85
79
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−34
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTAH
OFF EFFICIENCY
81
96
DEF EFFICIENCY
76
77
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
56
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
69
14
FINISHING DRIVES
57
95
FIELD POSITION
56
57
TURNOVER MARGIN
86
66
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTAH
PASS RATE
36.1%
44.2%
PACE
30.0s
26.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.8%
58.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
51.4%
51.0%
PLAYS / GAME
60.0
69.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.4%
9.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BYU, ORANGE = UTAH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE