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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›COLO @ ASU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COLORADO
ARIZONA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
50FPI
COLOB12COLORADO
2-0
72
46
62
14%
84
66
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
47FPI
ASUB12ARIZONA STATE
1-1
68
61
86
16%
39
62
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
COLO65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
81
PROE
31
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE81p
81
PROE31p
31
TEMPO84p
84
ASU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
91
PROE
37
TEMPO
39
EXPLOSIVE91p
91
PROE37p
37
TEMPO39p
39
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
COLORECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.6
COLORADO won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOLORADOARIZONA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB100%Reginald HughesLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah BrownLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMartavius FrenchLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL94%Arden WalkerDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeaten WadeDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnquin Barnes Jr.DT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION12 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB85%Preston HodgeCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ McKinneyPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTawfiq ByardS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL78%Zarian McGillOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZylon CrislerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HillOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB74%Kaidon SalterQB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan StaubPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE48%Sincere BrownWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmarion MillerPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDre'lon MillerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB43%Dallan HaydenPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSimeon PriceRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBLiona Lefau · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASCarson Crawford · SIGNEE ★4Rodney Colton Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLToby Anene · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATESedrick Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDSantana Hopper · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEPARTIAL
DBBoo Carter · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEECree Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMERandon Fontenette · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILT3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLLeon Bell · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIABo Hughley · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJayven Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBKaneal Sweetwyne · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDeAndre Moore Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASDanny Scudero · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEErnest Campbell · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COLORADO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
16.86 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
30.733 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
8.74 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB58589810041 OF 4 GRADED
RB38386353105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE525274192110 OF 21 GRADED
OL49497721177 OF 17 GRADED
DL474768131710 OF 17 GRADED
LB444456093 OF 9 GRADED
DB5050708206 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO35%84
RECRUITING CLASS#67 · 2/14 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 42 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
6868
PASS RATE
5050
EXPLOSIVENESS
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
COLODEION SANDERS4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
PACE
4444
PASS RATE
9696
EXPLOSIVENESS
8888
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HAVOC
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCOLO OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOLORADO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
58
RET
100
NATIONAL
23OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
COLO QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JULIAN LEWISQBRET
432ND YR5498★4-51
ISAAC WILSONQBPORTAL · UTAH
433RD YR—64★3-22 2025
KANEAL SWEETWYNEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
DOMINIQ PONDERQBRET
404TH YR—17★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5950%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
6741%0%
SECONDARYDB
5645%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOLORADO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
77
PERF
49
RET
21
DL
36OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
COLO OFFENSIVE LINEn=1779% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAUNCEY GOODENOLRET
522ND YR4785★4—
BO HUGHLEYOLPORTAL · GEORGIA
584TH YR6485★3+21 2025
JAYVEN RICHARDSONOLPORTAL · MISSOURI
554TH YR—78★3—
DEMETRIUS HUNTEROLPORTAL · HOUSTON
534TH YR9464★3+36
JAYVON MCFADDENOLPORTAL · OHIO STATE
522ND YR4964★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN LONGLBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
803RD YR9095★4-24
JALEN THOMPSONDLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
594TH YR9489★3+25
ZAC SWANSONDLRET
584TH YR6145★3-47
C.J. FITEDLRET
564TH YR9754★3-30
CLAYTON SMITHDLRET
524TH YR9889★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOLORADO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
124OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
38
RET
53
DL
36OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
13OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
COLO RUNNING BACKSn=1047% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEKALON TAYLORRBRET
594TH YR3664★3-30
RICHARD YOUNGRBPORTAL · ALABAMA
524TH YR5264★3+11
DAMIAN HENDERSON IIRBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
514TH YR4264★3+20
JAQUAIL SMITHRBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
492ND YR2245★3+26
MICAH WELCHRBRET
433RD YR7875★3-43
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555950%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456741%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOLORADO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
52
RET
19
DB
45OF 138
DB RET
45
SECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE
COLO PASS CATCHERSn=2181% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DANNY SCUDEROWRPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
704TH YR9278★3+30
KAM PERRYWRPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
704TH YR9464★3+33
DEANDRE MOORE JR.WRPORTAL · TEXAS
644TH YR9499★4+3
JOSEPH WILLIAMSWRRET
613RD YR9378★3+23
CHARLIE WILLIAMSTERET
524TH YR16—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYRIK RAWLSDBPORTAL · KANSAS
764TH YR9464★3+25
RODNEY BIMAGE JR.DBRET
583RD YR5379★3+12
MONTANA WARRENDBRET
514TH YR7165★3-13
KYAN MCDONALDDBRET
503RD YR4776★3—
ASHTON STAMPSDBPORTAL · LSU
504TH YR9264★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
COLO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.6
53.5
— OFFENSE
51.6
61.1
— DEFENSE
41.6
45.9
SP+ OVERALL
3.7
7.8
FPI
4.5
4.9
ELO
1404
1531
TALENT
732
722
PRODUCTION
53
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+24
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.35
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
COLO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
OFF EFFICIENCY
5
24
DEF EFFICIENCY
41
58
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
64
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
18
61
FINISHING DRIVES
58
24
FIELD POSITION
57
78
TURNOVER MARGIN
44
21
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
COLO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
PASS RATE
45.1%
53.5%
PACE
25.0s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.7%
48.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
44.9%
57.1%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
63.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.5%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = COLO, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE