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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›ISU @ BAY›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
IOWA STATE
BAYLOR
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
64FPI
ISUB12IOWA STATE
1-1
51
63
67
2%
1
70
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
35FPI
BAYB12BAYLOR
1-1
69
80
74
60%
100
94
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ISU40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
89
PROE
30
TEMPO
1
EXPLOSIVE89p
89
PROE30p
30
TEMPO1p
1
BAY82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
54
PROE
93
TEMPO
100
EXPLOSIVE54p
54
PROE93p
93
TEMPO100p
100
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ISURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.3
IOWA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
BAYLOR won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERIOWA STATEBAYLOR2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Rocco BechtPORTAL · PENN STATE · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL98%Jim BonifasOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Neal IIIOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MillerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB96%Carson HansenPORTAL · PENN STATE · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbu Sama IIIPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan LeeRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE92%Benjamin BrahmerPORTAL · PENN STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabe BurkleTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MooreTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB87%Marcus Neal Jr.PORTAL · PENN STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre BellPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamison PattonPORTAL · PENN STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB86%Kooper EbelPORTAL · PENN STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb BaconPORTAL · PENN STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCael BrezinaPORTAL · PENN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Ikenna EzeoguPORTAL · PENN STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDomonique OrangeDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTamatoa McDonoughDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHudson Kurland · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLMaasai King · PORTAL ★3 · AKRONCaden Maas · PORTAL ★3 · SIOUX FALLSJake Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBSalahadin Allah · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATECaleb Francois · SIGNEE ★3Gabriel Wilson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETyler Fortenberry · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEJeffrey Roberts · SIGNEE ★4Jamal Polite Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBSeth Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEMicah Harper · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANAJaheim Singletary · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLIsaac Terrell · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEJack Janikowski · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATECaden Crawford · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · IOWA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
10.83 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
3.60 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
15.78 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB303046552 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949474395 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE515157529CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL424255020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL303050262114 OF 21 GRADED
LB52525230118 OF 11 GRADED
DB585848352211 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE51st51
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%36
RECRUITING CLASS#54 · 1/25 BC60
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-7 · 48 IN / 55 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
8989
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HAVOC
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ISUJIMMY ROGERSFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
PACE
1515
PASS RATE
5959
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HAVOC
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESISU OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBIOWA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
30
RET
5
NATIONAL
49OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE
ISU QUARTERBACKSn=595% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLEN RAYNORQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
524TH YR10045★3+3
CONNOR MOBERLYQBRET
492ND YR2067★3—
ZANE FLORESQBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
422ND YR—45★3-18 2025
HUDSON KURLANDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—69★3—
WYATT BOHMQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4026%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
2782%10%
SECONDARYDB
5646%24%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLIOWA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
104OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
42
RET
0
DL
103OF 138
DL RET
26
LB
132OF 138
LB RET
82
FRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE
ISU OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEANDRE CARTEROLPORTAL · AUBURN
522ND YR—45★3—
GABRIEL GREENLEEOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
GARRET RUTLEDGEOLRET
522ND YR—57★3—
GAVIN BROSCIOUSOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
513RD YR—45★3+4 2025
AUSTIN BARRETTOLRET
493RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS52% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TRAEVON MITCHELLDLTRUE FR
864TH YR——★3+22 2025
TRAVION BARNESLBRET
794TH YR8564★3-18
JAMAAL WHYCE JR.DLPORTAL · MARSHALL
624TH YR6964★3-14
HOSEA WHEELERDLPORTAL · INDIANA
604TH YR9897★4-20
JORDAN MACKDEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
504TH YR5264★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBIOWA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
82OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
49
RET
43
DL
103OF 138
DL RET
26
LB
132OF 138
LB RET
82
FRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE
ISU RUNNING BACKSn=957% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ARNOLD BARNES IIIRBTRUE FR
534TH YR7945★3-9
AIDEN FLORARBRET
522ND YR30—UNR+31
CAMERON PETTAWAYRBPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
472ND YR5645★3+22
CALEB FRANCOISRBTRUE FR
381ST YR—75★3—
EASTON MILLERRBRET
353RD YR16—UNR—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554026%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452782%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEIOWA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
62OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
51
RET
5
DB
47OF 138
DB RET
46
SECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE
ISU PASS CATCHERSn=2995% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OMARI HAYESWRPORTAL · TULANE
724TH YR8345★3+35
TYLER FORTENBERRYTEPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
674TH YR7664★3-19
VINCE BENETTITERET
523RD YR——UNR—
EVAN BOYDWRPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
503RD YR—45★3+6 2025
CARTER PABSTWRPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
502ND YR—45★3+15 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM54% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEVIN TURNERSRET
704TH YR9878★3+16
COLBY MCCALISTERSPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
644TH YR7364★3+39
STILTON MCKELVEYCBPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
624TH YR——UNR-13 2025
LEVAR THORNTON JR.CBRET
534TH YR8386★4-37
MICAH GIFFORDSRET
524TH YR4481★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ISU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.6
42.6
— OFFENSE
40.2
43.5
— DEFENSE
57.0
41.8
SP+ OVERALL
3.5
7.4
FPI
0.8
8.2
ELO
1588
1509
TALENT
670
723
PRODUCTION
50
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+16
+12
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.24
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ISU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
OFF EFFICIENCY
72
70
DEF EFFICIENCY
69
28
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
35
69
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
67
86
FINISHING DRIVES
27
30
FIELD POSITION
36
61
TURNOVER MARGIN
90
26
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ISU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
PASS RATE
36.6%
53.4%
PACE
35.6s
20.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.4%
57.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
80.4%
PLAYS / GAME
50.5
88.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ISU, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE