SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›MIA @ ND›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIAMI
NOTRE DAME
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#5AP
6FPI
MIAACCMIAMI
3-0
92
79
91
37%
75
55
0.0
—
—
HOME
#3AP
4FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
3-0
96
87
88
51%
41
53
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MIA72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
75
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE75p
75
TEMPO75p
75
ND36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
47
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE47p
47
TEMPO41p
41
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+20.3
MIAMI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMINOTRE DAME2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Carson BeckDRAFTED · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Markel BellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrancis MauigoaDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames BrockermeyerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Alex BaumanTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeelan MarionWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ DanielsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Rueben Bain Jr.DRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAkheem MesidorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid Blay Jr.DL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Wesley BissaintheLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPopo AguirrePORTAL · NC STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB33%Jakobe ThomasDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeionte ScottDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDarian Mensah · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEDereon Coleman · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLJackson Cantwell · SIGNEE ★5Ben Congdon · SIGNEE ★4Joel Ervin · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECooper Barkate · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEVandrevius Jacobs · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINACam Vaughn · PORTAL ★4 · WEST VIRGINIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamon Wilson II · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIKeona Davis · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKAAsharri Charles · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBOmar Thornton · PORTAL ★4 · BOSTON COLLEGEJJ Dunnigan · SIGNEE ★4Jaelen Waters · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.283 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.161 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.687 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464981462 OF 6 GRADED
RB7474878984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE767692602512 OF 25 GRADED
OL90908779199 OF 19 GRADED
DL818194721811 OF 18 GRADED
LB626281100116 OF 11 GRADED
DB727293702212 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE92nd92
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%92
RECRUITING CLASS#9 · 22/30 BC94
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+7 · 13 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
6464
PASS RATE
7171
EXPLOSIVENESS
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HAVOC
9494
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIA OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
64
RET
14
NATIONAL
5OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE
MIA QUARTERBACKSn=686% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DARIAN MENSAHQBPORTAL · DUKE
733RD YR9399★4—
LUKE NICKELQBRET
491ST YR1192★4—
DEREON COLEMANQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—90★4—
JUDD ANDERSONQBRET
352ND YR—77★3—
JOE BORCHERSQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7059%50%
LINEBACKERSLB
62100%55%
SECONDARYDB
6376%61%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
90
RET
79
DL
12OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
MIA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1921% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATTHEW MCCOYOLRET
664TH YR9073★3+35
SAMSON OKUNLOLAOLRET
573RD YR7399★5+26 2025
SEUSEU ALOFAITULIOLRET
512ND YR5295★4—
JACKSON CANTWELLOLTRUE FR
511ST YR23100★5—
BEN CONGDONOLTRUE FR
501ST YR1293★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BOUBACAR TRAOREDLRET
863RD YR7892★4+35
FRANCIS BREWUDLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
793RD YR8299★4+10
JASON ONYEDLRET
664TH YR7874★3+19
ELIJAH HUGHESDLRET
554TH YR—28★3-2 2025
BRYCE YOUNGDLRET
543RD YR8197★4+30
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
74
RET
89
DL
12OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
MIA RUNNING BACKSn=811% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARK FLETCHER JR.RBRET
734TH YR9995★4+10
GIRARD PRINGLE JR.RBRET
682ND YR5494★4+23
CHARMAR BROWNRBRET
673RD YR7578★3+8
JORDAN LYLERBRET
573RD YR—95★4+20 2025
JAVIAN MALLORYRBTRUE FR
521ST YR986★4—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557059%50%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4562100%55%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
76
RET
60
DB
16OF 138
DB RET
76
SECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE
MIA PASS CATCHERSn=2540% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALACHI TONEYWRRET
892ND YR8987★4+28
COOPER BARKATEWRPORTAL · DUKE
874TH YR8999★4+32
VANDREVIUS JACOBSWRPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
643RD YR8597★4+9
ELIJA LOFTONTERET
633RD YR6990★4+18
GAVIN MUELLERTETRUE FR
521ST YR897★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADON SHULERSRET
843RD YR9888★4+17
BRAUNTAE JOHNSONSRET
822ND YR7792★4+55
LEONARD MOORECBRET
643RD YR9686★4+3
LUKE TALICHSRET
584TH YR6071★3+39
DJ MCKINNEYCBPORTAL · COLORADO
574TH YR—95★4-9 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
51.4
50.5
— OFFENSE
67.3
47.5
— DEFENSE
35.4
53.5
SP+ OVERALL
25.6
29.0
FPI
23.9
26.8
ELO
1895
2061
TALENT
886
953
PRODUCTION
96
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.56
0.69
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
OFF EFFICIENCY
86
83
DEF EFFICIENCY
91
90
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
12
100
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
54
FINISHING DRIVES
86
87
FIELD POSITION
32
7
TURNOVER MARGIN
92
98
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
PASS RATE
46.9%
45.6%
PACE
26.1s
28.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.4%
57.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.1%
55.8%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
63.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
8.2%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIA, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE