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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›UCLA @ MINN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UCLA
MINNESOTA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
38FPI
UCLAB1GUCLA
2-0
82
56
55
57%
21
88
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
74FPI
MINNB1GMINNESOTA
1-1
71
39
57
65%
54
69
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UCLA37CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
39
PROE
51
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE39p
39
PROE51p
51
TEMPO21p
21
MINN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
8
PROE
87
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE8p
8
PROE87p
87
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UCLARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UCLA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MINNRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
MINNESOTA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCLAMINNESOTA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL91%Gary Smith IIIDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Jones Jr.PORTAL · NEBRASKA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeanu WilliamsPORTAL · PENN STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Kwazi GilmerPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHudson HabermehlTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTitus Mokiao-AtimalalaWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB62%JonJon VaughnsLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah ChisomPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL52%Garrett DiGiorgioOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReuben UnijeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCourtland FordOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Jalen BergerRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Frias IIRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB42%Key LawrenceDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre Jordan Jr.PORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKanye ClarkPORTAL · FLORIDA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB8%Luke DuncanPORTAL · NEVADA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLSahir West · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONAiden Gobaira · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONAmier Washington · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEAidan Mizell · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJosh Phifer · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONBrian Rowe Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBSammy Omosigho · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAMalaki Soliai-Tui · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Muasau · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRiley Robell · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONSean Na'a · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEQuinn Buckey · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBWayne Knight · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONJayden Fox · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBTao Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHLogan Hirou · SIGNEE ★3CJ Lavender · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBDJ Bordeaux · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCLA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.960 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.778 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.742 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666610010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757755763 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE373768142310 OF 23 GRADED
OL55556024236 OF 23 GRADED
DL262673191710 OF 17 GRADED
LB32328059156 OF 15 GRADED
DB585866372313 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE82nd82
BLUE-CHIP RATIO24%74
RECRUITING CLASS#62 · 2/18 BC54
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 42 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MINNP.J. FLECK10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCLABOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
PACE
7878
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCLA OFFENSEMINN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCLA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
24OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
66
RET
100
NATIONAL
73OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEMINNESOTA DEFENSE
UCLA QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICO IAMALEAVAQBRET
643RD YR92100★5+5 2025
TY DIEFFENBACHQBPORTAL · CAL POLY
373RD YR—45★3—
MADDEN IAMALEAVAQBRET
371ST YR—78★3—
DJ BORDEAUXQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
COLTON GUMINOQBRET
351ST YR—59★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6751%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
6993%10%
SECONDARYDB
4968%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCLA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
55
RET
24
DL
14OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
12OF 138
LB RET
93
FRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE
UCLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2376% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RILEY ROBELLOLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
733RD YR—85★3+39 2025
EUGENE BROOKSOLRET
652ND YR—89★3+29 2025
CARTER SWEAZIEOLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
594TH YR—45★3+15 2025
MACK INDESTADOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
574TH YR—45★3-17 2025
JULIAN ARMELLAOLRET
574TH YR—45★3+51 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAVERICK BARANOWSKILBRET
754TH YR9740★3+17
SID KABADLPORTAL · MARSHALL
674TH YR4989★3—
NAQUAN CROWDERDLPORTAL · MARSHALL
634TH YR6064★3-3
XION CHAPMANDLPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
594TH YR—97★4+18 2025
KARTER MENZDLRET
584TH YR6772★3+50
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCLA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
48OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
57
RET
57
DL
14OF 138
DL RET
51
LB
12OF 138
LB RET
93
FRONT-7MINNESOTA DEFENSE
UCLA RUNNING BACKSn=643% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WAYNE KNIGHTRBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
824TH YR9578★3+26
JAIVIAN THOMASRBRET
554TH YR8389★3-1
ANTHONY WOODSRBRET
554TH YR5664★3+22
DYLAN LEERBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
552ND YR—64★3-34 2025
TROY LEIGBERRBRET
513RD YR—52★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556751%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456993%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCLA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
124OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
37
RET
14
DB
85OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYMINNESOTA DEFENSE
UCLA PASS CATCHERSn=2386% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDON ELLISWRPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
704TH YR7264★3+34
BRAYDEN LOFTINTEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
524TH YR—64★3+0 2025
HARRY LODGETEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
524TH YR5645★3-33
MIKEY MATTHEWSWRRET
464TH YR9778★3-29
SEMAJ MORGANWRPORTAL · MICHIGAN
454TH YR8345★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MINN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHN NESTORDBRET
854TH YR8385★3-27
KERRY BROWNDBRET
694TH YR9568★3+25
RHYLAND KELLYDBRET
524TH YR2359★3—
AYDAN WESTDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
492ND YR6578★3-15
ZACK HARDENDBRET
492ND YR2069★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.5
51.1
— OFFENSE
61.6
60.0
— DEFENSE
37.4
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
9.1
4.7
FPI
7.0
-1.3
ELO
1487
1452
TALENT
774
729
PRODUCTION
67
71
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.24
0.18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
OFF EFFICIENCY
40
32
DEF EFFICIENCY
1
27
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
8
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
90
49
FINISHING DRIVES
11
54
FIELD POSITION
94
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
19
64
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MINN
PASS RATE
40.5%
61.7%
PACE
31.0s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
70.5%
44.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.0%
78.8%
PLAYS / GAME
58.0
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
6.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCLA, ORANGE = MINN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE