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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›MD @ PUR›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MARYLAND
PURDUE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ROSS-ADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
48FPI
MDB1GMARYLAND
2-1
67
25
70
54%
91
84
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
75FPI
PURB1GPURDUE
1-2
61
70
56
48%
81
82
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MD83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
100
TEMPO
91
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE100p
100
TEMPO91p
91
PUR67CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
56
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE56p
56
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MDRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.0
MARYLAND won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARYLANDPURDUE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE58%Octavian Smith Jr.WR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaleak KnottsWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalil FarooqWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Jalen HuskeyDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLa'khi RolandPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevyn HumesPORTAL · RUTGERS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL33%Alan HerronOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAliou BahOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL31%Cam RiceDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillan FontusPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB25%Nolan RayPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB20%Keyshawn FlowersLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNeeo AveryLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB4%Khristian MartinPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TENa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONPreston Howard · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJavonte Williams · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAmari Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEDarrell Carey · SIGNEE ★4Sean Johnson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTellek Lockette · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEDay'Jon Moore · SIGNEE ★3Jesse Moody · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLavon Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASArmon Parker · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONDerrick LeBlanc · PORTAL ★3 · UCF4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBHarry Dalton III · PORTAL ★3 · USCINTACT
LBKaden Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNathan Bernhard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARYLAND
CARRIED COMPOSITE
66.598 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
65.095 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
67.597 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7474898363 OF 6 GRADED
RB5757735274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE545462412117 OF 21 GRADED
OL696972902014 OF 20 GRADED
DL565670581812 OF 18 GRADED
LB48486362116 OF 11 GRADED
DB545472481913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE67th67
BLUE-CHIP RATIO17%67
RECRUITING CLASS#43 · 2/19 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MDMIKE LOCKSLEY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
PACE
7070
PASS RATE
9494
EXPLOSIVENESS
6363
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HAVOC
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMD OFFENSEPUR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
74
RET
83
NATIONAL
86OF 136
RET
35
FULL DEFENSEPURDUE DEFENSE
MD QUARTERBACKSn=617% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK WASHINGTONQBRET
562ND YR7896★4-42
CARDELL WILLIAMSQBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
494TH YR5545★3+29
JACK CAPALDIQBTRUE FR
344TH YR——UNR—
JACKSON HAMILTONQBRET
351ST YR—41★3—
NATHAN BERNHARDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS71% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5840%9%
LINEBACKERSLB
7245%10%
SECONDARYDB
5519%8%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
18OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
69
RET
90
DL
37OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
11OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE
MD OFFENSIVE LINEn=2010% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL HERSHEYOLRET
593RD YR—57★3+49 2025
RYAN HOWERTONOLRET
532ND YR—81★3+43 2025
AMORY HILLSOLRET
512ND YR—59★3—
DAVON WATKINSOLRET
512ND YR—71★3—
TELLEK LOCKETTEOLPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
504TH YR—64★3+40 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CURT NEALDLPORTAL · ILLINOIS
594TH YR9164★3-14
CHARLES CORREALBRET
593RD YR8945★3+5
BREEON ISHMAILDERET
563RD YR6364★3+19
RODNEY LORADLPORTAL · UCF
553RD YR6164★3-32
TJ LINDSEYDLRET
542ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
57
RET
52
DL
37OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
11OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE
MD RUNNING BACKSn=748% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LIAM WILLSONRBTRUE FR
523RD YR——UNR—
HARRY DALTON IIIRBPORTAL · USC
501ST YR2064★3+11
DEJUAN WILLIAMSRBRET
452ND YR73—UNR+6
IVERSON HOWARDRBRET
452ND YR4582★3-28
TERREZ WORTHYRBPORTAL · TEMPLE
564TH YR—45★3-4 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555840%9%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457245%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARYLAND OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
62
PERF
54
RET
41
DB
49OF 138
DB RET
19
SECONDARYPURDUE DEFENSE
MD PASS CATCHERSn=2159% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NA'EEM ABDUL-RAHIM GLADDINGWRTRUE FR
623RD YR82—UNR+28
CHRIS DURR JR.WRPORTAL · WYOMING
513RD YR8245★3+25
RYAN MANNINGWRRET
483RD YR3860★3-19
JORDAN SCOTTWRRET
484TH YR1964★3—
KALEB WEBBWRRET
484TH YR8464★3-13
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM81% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DON SAUNDERSDBPORTAL · UTAH
584TH YR5164★3+0
JUSTIN DENSONDBTRUE FR
582ND YR5245★3+62
JADEN MANGHAMDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
494TH YR9478★3+2
DEE NEWSOMEDBPORTAL · SAMFORD
483RD YR—45★3—
MISTER CLARKDBPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
473RD YR8528★3+5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.4
48.1
— OFFENSE
60.1
54.5
— DEFENSE
44.7
41.7
SP+ OVERALL
8.7
-1.2
FPI
5.5
-1.6
ELO
1474
1311
TALENT
720
698
PRODUCTION
66
44
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+12
+22
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.17
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
OFF EFFICIENCY
17
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
33
6
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
70
44
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
64
55
FINISHING DRIVES
15
17
FIELD POSITION
41
83
TURNOVER MARGIN
75
15
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MD
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
PASS RATE
57.3%
53.1%
PACE
24.6s
25.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.6%
54.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.1%
74.1%
PLAYS / GAME
73.3
70.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MD, ORANGE = PUR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE