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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›PSU @ WASH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
PENN STATE
WASHINGTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUSKY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#16AP
14FPI
PSUB1GPENN STATE
2-0
82
78
79
8%
65
51
0.0
—
—
HOME
#19AP
44FPI
WASHB1GWASHINGTON
2-0
83
91
76
54%
65
91
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
PSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
56
PROE
27
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE56p
56
PROE27p
27
TEMPO65p
65
WASH41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
53
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE53p
53
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.3
PENN STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPENN STATEWASHINGTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Ethan GrunkemeyerPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew AllarDRAFTED · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB93%Kaytron AllenDRAFTED · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNicholas SingletonDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL85%Dani Dennis-SuttonDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZane DurantDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZuriah FisherPORTAL · USC · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB84%Amare CampbellPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominic DeLucaLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeon WyliePORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE81%Khalil DinkinsTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke ReynoldsPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrebor PenaWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL76%Drew SheltonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick DawkinsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNolan RucciOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB65%Zakee WheatleyDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. HarrisDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKing MackPORTAL · NC STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBRocco Becht · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEPeyton Falzone · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBJames Peoples · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATECarson Hansen · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEREFILLED
DLIkenna Ezeogu · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATESiale Taupaki · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAElijah Reeder · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBCaleb Bacon · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATECael Brezina · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEPARTIAL
WR/TEBenjamin Brahmer · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEChase Sowell · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEBrett Eskildsen · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTrevor Buhr · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEMason Bandhauer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarcus Neal Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEJeremiah Cooper · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJamison Patton · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PENN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
24.013 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.423 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
23.814 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB555586064 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858844474 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE666687391910 OF 19 GRADED
OL707080312012 OF 20 GRADED
DL636378402012 OF 20 GRADED
LB61618440126 OF 12 GRADED
DB606082392114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE82nd82
BLUE-CHIP RATIO37%86
RECRUITING CLASS#65 · 4/15 BC52
CLASS RANK TREND-50 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 38 IN / 48 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PSUMATT CAMPBELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
PACE
5555
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HAVOC
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPSU OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPENN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
62OF 138
TAL
86
PERF
55
RET
0
NATIONAL
20OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE
PSU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROCCO BECHTQBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
544TH YR9999★4+13
ALEX MANSKEQBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
501ST YR2164★3—
CONNOR BARRYQBPORTAL · CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT
404TH YR228★3—
PEYTON FALZONEQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—85★4—
KASE EVANSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—69★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4828%16%
LINEBACKERSLB
47100%14%
SECONDARYDB
6863%31%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPENN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
15OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
70
RET
31
DL
81OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE
PSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2069% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BROCK RIKEROLPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
662ND YR—64★3+42 2025
ANTHONY DONKOHOLRET
613RD YR—85★4-9 2025
COOPER COUSINSOLRET
553RD YR—98★4—
OWEN ALICIENEOLRET
521ST YR—86★4—
DOMINIC RULLIOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACOB MANULBRET
624TH YR10064★3+25
ELINNEUS DAVISDLRET
553RD YR7668★3-34
RUSSELL DAVIS IIEDGERET
554TH YR7278★3+35
TAARIQ AL-UQDAHLBRET
524TH YR9545★3+18
LOGAN GEORGEEDGEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPENN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
58
RET
44
DL
81OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE
PSU RUNNING BACKSn=756% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES PEOPLESRBPORTAL · OHIO STATE
513RD YR6985★3-19
CARSON HANSENRBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
504TH YR9885★3+0
QUINTON MARTIN JR.RBRET
492ND YR4796★4-44
CAM WALLACERBRET
493RD YR4469★3-41
D'ANTAE SHEFFEYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554828%16%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4547100%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPENN STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
66
RET
39
DB
9OF 138
DB RET
63
SECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE
PSU PASS CATCHERSn=1961% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW RAPPLEYEATERET
623RD YR5195★4+14
CHASE SOWELLWRPORTAL · IOWA STATE
554TH YR9998★4+28
BRETT ESKILDSENWRPORTAL · IOWA STATE
553RD YR7489★3+18
BENJAMIN BRAHMERTEPORTAL · IOWA STATE
544TH YR9599★4+28
KOBY HOWARDWRRET
502ND YR4184★4+31
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEX MCLAUGHLINSRET
894TH YR8678★3+16
RYLON DILLARD-ALLENSRET
682ND YR6593★4+45
DYLAN ROBINSONCBRET
622ND YR6494★4-11
RAHSHAWN CLARKSRET
492ND YR6582★3+23
JERON JONESCBTRUE FR
481ST YR—85★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.7
56.3
— OFFENSE
57.9
62.1
— DEFENSE
47.5
50.5
SP+ OVERALL
17.7
11.1
FPI
16.4
5.9
ELO
1880
1757
TALENT
774
778
PRODUCTION
88
88
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+7
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.37
0.30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
OFF EFFICIENCY
82
93
DEF EFFICIENCY
57
79
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
26
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
77
65
FINISHING DRIVES
88
92
FIELD POSITION
10
55
TURNOVER MARGIN
47
61
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
PASS RATE
40.4%
57.4%
PACE
26.5s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.3%
47.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.0%
70.3%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.2%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PSU, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE