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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›BOIS @ CSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOISE STATE
COLORADO STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 18:00 ET|CANVAS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
36FPI
BOISPACBOISE STATE
1-1
47
39
59
66%
77
47
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
90FPI
CSUPACCOLORADO STATE
2-0
46
36
20
40%
65
42
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BOIS58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
40
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE40p
40
TEMPO77p
77
CSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
95
PROE
63
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE95p
95
PROE63p
63
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.3
COLORADO STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOISE STATECOLORADO STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB68%Ty BenefieldPORTAL · LSU · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah EarbyDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion WashingtonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE61%Matt LauterTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatrell CaplesWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris MarshallPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Braxton FelyDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion WashingtonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalakai WilliamsEDGE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL50%Kage CaseyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason RandolphOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach HolmesOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB29%Malik SherrodRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB22%Marco NotarainniLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCam Jamerson · PORTAL ★3 · TCURoman Tillmon · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTADavin Hill · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERasean Jones · SIGNEE ★3Keawe Browne · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Brekke · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCorey Webb Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Gustaf Henriks Ras · SIGNEE ★3Paz St. John · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLKole Cronin · SIGNEE ★3Hakeim Smalls · SIGNEE ★3Connor LaGrow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJuelz Goff · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHKeilan Chavies · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBRocky Dunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOISE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.082 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.677 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.871 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB45453710041 OF 4 GRADED
RB57577310072 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE454550592411 OF 24 GRADED
OL59593980206 OF 20 GRADED
DL50503947115 OF 11 GRADED
LB43433586209 OF 20 GRADED
DB51515364218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%21
RECRUITING CLASS#51 · 1/28 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 11 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CSUJIM MORAFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
3838
PASS RATE
3535
EXPLOSIVENESS
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1111
HAVOC
4141
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBOIS OFFENSECSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
97OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
45
RET
100
NATIONAL
116OF 136
RET
39
FULL DEFENSECOLORADO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MADDUX MADSENQBRET
644TH YR9437★3+9
MAX CUTFORTHQBRET
403RD YR—9★2—
JACKSON TAYLORQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
CASH HERRERAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—70★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS61% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
1225%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
1843%0%
SECONDARYDB
3844%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
46OF 138
TAL
39
PERF
59
RET
80
DL
138OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
137OF 138
LB RET
43
FRONT-7COLORADO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROGER CARREONOLRET
604TH YR—44★3+46 2025
TYLER ETHRIDGEOLPORTAL · CSU-PUEBLO
524TH YR—17★3—
JASON STEELEOLRET
493RD YR—48★3+1 2025
STEWART TAUFAOLRET
491ST YR—56★3—
CARSON RASMUSSENOLRET
483RD YR—37★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS68% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OUMAR DIOMANDELBPORTAL · UCONN
784TH YR8845★3+12
ROBBY HARRISONDLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
554TH YR5528★3—
BRANDON KELLEYDLPORTAL · UCONN
514TH YR4528★3—
JASEIM MITCHELLLBRET
494TH YR57—UNR—
MUKENDI WA-KALONJIDLRET
494TH YR9328★3-16
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
57
RET
100
DL
138OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
137OF 138
LB RET
43
FRONT-7COLORADO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIRE GAINESRBRET
732ND YR8474★3+10
DYLAN RILEYRBRET
603RD YR8873★3+12
JUELZ GOFFRBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
552ND YR—64★3-17 2025
HARRY STEWART IIIRBPORTAL · KANSAS
512ND YR—78★3-35 2025
KEILAN CHAVIESRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—77★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS67% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.551225%7%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.451843%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOISE STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
45
RET
59
DB
130OF 138
DB RET
44
SECONDARYCOLORADO STATE DEFENSE
BOIS PASS CATCHERSn=2441% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN FORDWRRET
584TH YR6021★3+36
AUSTIN TERRYTERET
564TH YR—66★3-40 2025
RASEAN JONESWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—77★3—
MATT WAGNERTERET
483RD YR7234★3+6
AKEEM WRIGHTWRTRUE FR
474TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ BLOCKERCBRET
724TH YR6445★3+0
DYLAN PHELPSSRET
674TH YR75—UNR-2
CALEB PRESLEYCBPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
603RD YR5264★3—
D'ANGELO HAGANS JR.CBRET
552ND YR—28★3—
ELIJAH BROWNCBRET
493RD YR289★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
34.7
51.1
— OFFENSE
40.6
59.6
— DEFENSE
28.8
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
6.9
-6.7
FPI
8.2
-5.4
ELO
1609
1327
TALENT
641
640
PRODUCTION
64
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
36
25
DEF EFFICIENCY
94
12
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
74
37
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
2
33
FINISHING DRIVES
52
32
FIELD POSITION
24
95
TURNOVER MARGIN
78
43
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
PASS RATE
42.5%
52.9%
PACE
25.5s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
68.0%
54.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.3%
72.2%
PLAYS / GAME
70.5
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BOIS, ORANGE = CSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE