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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›TXST @ ORST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS STATE
OREGON STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:30 ET|RESER STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
86FPI
TXSTPACTEXAS STATE
1-2
41
75
14
76%
82
42
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
78FPI
ORSTPACOREGON STATE
1-2
45
54
45
58%
81
49
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TXST45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
34
PROE
20
TEMPO
82
EXPLOSIVE34p
34
PROE20p
20
TEMPO82p
82
ORST79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
98
PROE
57
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE98p
98
PROE57p
57
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS STATEOREGON STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB88%Lincoln PareRB · 62% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreg BurrellPORTAL · CONCORD · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL68%Emeka ObigboOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorion StrawnOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock RikerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL63%Kalil AlexanderDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamren WashingtonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenard SnyderDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Bobby CrosbyS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhamari TerrellPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden RiosCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE25%Titus LyonsTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMavin AndersonWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB17%Michael Boudoin IIILB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChantz JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Keldric LusterPORTAL · BALL STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJuntavious Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRasheed Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · TCUWilliam Boone · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJaylen Early · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLPhillip Bradford · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESEJason Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS SOUTHERNChancellor Owens · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMichael Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · STEPHEN F. AUSTINDexter Ricks Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYJayden Flournoy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDavian Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEZechariah Sample · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEXavier Warren · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJavante Mackey · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEDarius Davis · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBShaker Reisig · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEEaston Webb · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.175 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.758 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.074 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252307652 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353525166 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE464634791911 OF 19 GRADED
OL595945402012 OF 20 GRADED
DL464651542514 OF 25 GRADED
LB38384971108 OF 10 GRADED
DB484835651713 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE41st41
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%23
RECRUITING CLASS#74 · 0/16 BC45
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTJAMARCUS SHEPHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TXSTG.J. KINNE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
9393
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTXST OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
52
RET
76
NATIONAL
102OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE
TXST QUARTERBACKSn=524% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAD JACKSONQBRET
772ND YR7627★3+33
GAVIN PARKHURSTQBRET
501ST YR1439★3—
SHAKER REISIGQBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
471ST YR—45★3—
EASTON WEBBQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
STONE WALKERQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4853%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4354%5%
SECONDARYDB
5042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
45OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
59
RET
40
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE
TXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SULLY BURNSOLRET
734TH YR8223★2-16
JUSTIN DELEONOLRET
743RD YR—73★3+43 2025
WILLIAM BOONEOLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
503RD YR—45★3—
MIKEL UDENGWUOLTRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
BAMIDELE BADUSIOLRET
503RD YR—47★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAKARI HICKLELBRET
594TH YR7255★3-14
AIDEN SULLIVANLBRET
574TH YR79—UNR-7
TYREE BLAKELBRET
534TH YR—22★3—
DANIEL MATAGIDTTRUE FR
524TH YR264★3—
TYLER BAILEYDTTRUE FR
523RD YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
53
RET
51
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
53
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
54
FRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE
TXST RUNNING BACKSn=649% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAJI ATKINSRBRET
532ND YR3840★3+26
DAVIAN JACKSONRBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
521ST YR1864★3—
TORRANCE BURGESS JR.RBRET
503RD YR8745★3+36
JUNTAVIOUS HARRISRBTRUE FR
501ST YR1459★3—
JAYLEN JENKINSRBRET
464TH YR7450★3+4
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554853%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454354%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
46
RET
79
DB
81OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE
TXST PASS CATCHERSn=1921% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAU SPARKSWRRET
834TH YR939★3+34
CHRIS DAWN JR.WRRET
774TH YR9551★3+32
BLAKE SMITHTERET
564TH YR5928★3-7
TUCKER CUSANOWRRET
521ST YR—42★3—
JAKE SIMPSONTERET
503RD YR—35★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAHEIM PATTERSONDBRET
603RD YR85—UNR+39
TJ CRANDALLDBRET
513RD YR6845★3-17
BLAKE THOMPSONDBRET
501ST YR2267★3—
XANDER CHISOLMDBTRUE FR
503RD YR9—UNR—
DRAKE VICKERSDBRET
504TH YR16—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.1
41.3
— OFFENSE
54.2
54.4
— DEFENSE
36.0
28.2
SP+ OVERALL
-6.5
-4.6
FPI
-4.9
-2.2
ELO
1491
1259
TALENT
625
636
PRODUCTION
45
36
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
+27
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
OFF EFFICIENCY
79
50
DEF EFFICIENCY
56
71
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
87
1
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
26
4
FINISHING DRIVES
73
3
FIELD POSITION
85
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
37
5
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
PASS RATE
37.1%
66.8%
PACE
25.4s
25.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
70.5%
44.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.8%
89.0%
PLAYS / GAME
71.0
70.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.8%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TXST, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE