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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›FRES @ USU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FRESNO STATE
UTAH STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 21:30 ET|MAVERIK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
69FPI
FRESPACFRESNO STATE
2-1
37
17
64
38%
11
36
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
108FPI
USUPACUTAH STATE
0-3
11
42
51
65%
51
47
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FRES42CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
86
PROE
28
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE86p
86
PROE28p
28
TEMPO11p
11
USU65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
76
PROE
69
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE76p
76
PROE69p
69
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTAH STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFRESNO STATEUTAH STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%E.J. WarnerQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarson ConklinPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB57%Al'zillion HamiltonDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakari EmbryDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCamryn BrachaDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Richie Anderson IIIPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake TarwaterTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamron BeachemTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB50%Jadon PearsonLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim ThomasPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Jacob SpomerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulian PolendoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL35%Finn ClaypoolDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKorey ForemanDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius GandyDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB21%Elijah GilliamRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnathan ArceneauxRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKhristian Martin · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDDeagan Rose · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Chambers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBCroix Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAIsaiah Lucero · SIGNEE ★3Truly Bell III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEXavier Owens · SIGNEE ★3Franklin Lockard · SIGNEE ★3Bryce McDaniel · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaydon Sutko · SIGNEE ★3Zephaniah Sesay · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLOscar Weigel · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGOAlex Rivera · SIGNEE ★3Efren Siuloa · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMaverick Noonan · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAJake Plummer · SIGNEE ★3Solomon Baker · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBTariq Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLJhadis Luckey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FRESNO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.271 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.653 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.775 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB343445051 OF 5 GRADED
RB48483286105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE35352350269 OF 26 GRADED
OL46464440186 OF 18 GRADED
DL494932751911 OF 19 GRADED
LB494932100106 OF 10 GRADED
DB565643822314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%8
RECRUITING CLASS#70 · 0/22 BC48
CLASS RANK TREND+16 · 3 CYCLES82
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 13 IN / 10 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USUBRONCO MENDENHALL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
4242
PASS RATE
5858
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HAVOC
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FRESMATT ENTZ2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
3030
EXPLOSIVENESS
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFRES OFFENSEUSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
34
RET
0
NATIONAL
98OF 136
RET
47
FULL DEFENSEUTAH STATE DEFENSE
FRES QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KHRISTIAN MARTINQBPORTAL · MARYLAND
482ND YR2345★3—
JAYDEN MANDALQBRET
463RD YR3046★3—
DEAGAN ROSEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
JONATHAN CRAFTQBRET
351ST YR—39★3—
JACOB CHAMBERSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—59★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 70 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
26100%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4234%3%
SECONDARYDB
4339%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
46
RET
40
DL
131OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
90OF 138
LB RET
34
FRONT-7UTAH STATE DEFENSE
FRES OFFENSIVE LINEn=1860% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GINO QUINONESOLRET
564TH YR—48★3+43 2024
PAT BARNETTOLTRUE FR
524TH YR—9★3—
BRAYLAN HENDERSONOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
BEN BAKEROLRET
502ND YR——UNR—
JONAH LEAUPEPETELEOLRET
491ST YR—44★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU FRONT-7n=45 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRONSON OLEVAO JR.LBRET
623RD YR92—UNR+15
CARSON TUJAGUEDTRET
531ST YR821★2-30
JAMES JENNETTELBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
524TH YR4264★3—
HARRISON TAGGARTLBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
504TH YR8864★3+21
TYREE MORRISDTRET
483RD YR8028★3-12
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
48
RET
86
DL
131OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
90OF 138
LB RET
34
FRONT-7UTAH STATE DEFENSE
FRES RUNNING BACKSn=1014% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAYSHON LUKERBRET
754TH YR8028★3+19
TARIQ THOMASRBPORTAL · BUCKNELL
493RD YR145★3—
JULIUS GILLICKRBRET
471ST YR1462★3—
BRYSON DONELSONRBRET
433RD YR8724★3-24
ANDREW CHAVEZRBTRUE FR
333RD YR1—UNR—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5526100%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454234%3%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
132OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
35
RET
50
DB
117OF 138
DB RET
39
SECONDARYUTAH STATE DEFENSE
FRES PASS CATCHERSn=2650% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HAROLD DUVALLWRRET
522ND YR2978★3—
JOSIAH FREEMANWRRET
514TH YR——★3+15 2025
GAVIN CORREIATERET
502ND YR—2★2—
JAYON FARRARWRRET
494TH YR47—UNR-16
EZEKIEL AVITWRRET
453RD YR6417★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USU SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BREVIN HAMBLINSRET
703RD YR9017★3-18
D'ANGELO MAYESCBRET
593RD YR64—UNR-33
MARKIE GRANTCBPORTAL · WYOMING
562ND YR6028★3-4
BOBBY ARNOLDSRET
543RD YR65—UNR-27
KYE STOKESCBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
494TH YR——★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
31.0
40.8
— OFFENSE
29.0
37.4
— DEFENSE
33.0
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
-0.8
-7.1
FPI
-0.6
-8.8
ELO
1611
1348
TALENT
610
544
PRODUCTION
47
31
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.01
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
OFF EFFICIENCY
23
38
DEF EFFICIENCY
78
35
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
88
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
83
43
FINISHING DRIVES
19
77
FIELD POSITION
3
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
65
67
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USU
PASS RATE
45.0%
54.6%
PACE
31.6s
27.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.2%
47.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.1%
58.6%
PLAYS / GAME
57.0
65.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FRES, ORANGE = USU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE