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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›CLT @ UAB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CHARLOTTE
UAB
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|PROTECTIVE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
128FPI
CLTAACCHARLOTTE
0-2
25
7
34
41%
54
45
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
125FPI
UABAACUAB
1-1
34
52
10
80%
84
42
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CLT55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
66
PROE
44
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE66p
66
PROE44p
44
TEMPO54p
54
UAB58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
64
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE64p
64
TEMPO84p
84
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CLTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-22.0
CHARLOTTE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UABRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
UAB won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCHARLOTTEUAB2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL83%Mo Clipper Jr.OL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDallas ShirleyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason BowersOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB78%Ja'Qurious ConleyDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDwight Bootle IIPORTAL · ARIZONA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCary GrantPORTAL · APP STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE77%Javen NicholasWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE. Jai MasonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean BrownWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB76%Rod Gainey Jr.RB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameren SmithRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ StokesPORTAL · FURMAN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL63%Braden MullenDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYamil TalibDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion ShockleyDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Shay TaylorLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReid WillifordLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB14%Zach WilckePORTAL · NORTHWESTERN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJ'ven Williams · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATELuke Sandy · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGMathias Nielsen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA UNION4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJameel Croft Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASJosh Hines · SIGNEE ★3Alchino Blakely · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEJaden Barnes · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATETank Boston · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATELane Wadle · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLDevin Ancrum · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAD'Nas White · PORTAL ★3 · CATAWBAColin Bussey · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLa'Trell Sellers · SIGNEE ★3Mikey Domanik · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBJaylen White · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CHARLOTTE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.821 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.424 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.826 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB303045051 OF 5 GRADED
RB272747773 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE4747481721CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL292936020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL24243852219 OF 21 GRADED
LB33332578104 OF 10 GRADED
DB46464370227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE25th25
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%20
RECRUITING CLASS#103 · 0/19 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND-29 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UABALEX MORTENSENFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLTTIM ALBIN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
1919
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
88
HAVOC
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLT OFFENSEUAB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCHARLOTTE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
132OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
30
RET
0
NATIONAL
133OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEUAB DEFENSE
CLT QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNER HARRELLQBRET
524TH YR—45★3+22 2025
COLE GONZALESQBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
494TH YR2745★3-5
JAYLEN WHITEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—69★3—
GRAYSON LOFTISQBRET
423RD YR—45★3-38 2025
LUKE MCNULTYQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS85% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3910%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
330%0%
SECONDARYDB
3623%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCHARLOTTE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
134OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
29
RET
0
DL
109OF 138
DL RET
10
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7UAB DEFENSE
CLT OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
J'VEN WILLIAMSOLPORTAL · PENN STATE
523RD YR—64★3—
ROD GREENOLRET
514TH YR—45★3+27 2025
DOM SILVIAOLRET
502ND YR—22★3—
ISAIAH BULLERDICKOLRET
454TH YR——UNR+31 2024
LUKE SANDYOLPORTAL · WYOMING
444TH YR—45★3-48 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS94% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM CUNNINGHAMDLTRUE FR
524TH YR2628★3—
STERLING SANDERSDLPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
521ST YR2245★3—
RAYMOND MACIASDLTRUE FR
482ND YR219★3—
BLANCHE GOLDLBTRUE FR
484TH YR2828★3—
MUAAZ BYARDLBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
474TH YR7428★3-65
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCHARLOTTE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
134OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
27
RET
7
DL
109OF 138
DL RET
10
LB
121OF 138
LB RET
0
FRONT-7UAB DEFENSE
CLT RUNNING BACKSn=793% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HENRY RUTLEDGERBRET
544TH YR47—UNR+36
KHAMANI ALEXANDERRBPORTAL · APP STATE
512ND YR2659★3+34
CHANCE WILLIAMSRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
494TH YR4132★3-49
JARIEL COBBRBRET
402ND YR—17★3-50 2025
D'MARIUN PERTEETRBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
373RD YR—2★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS95% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553910%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45330%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECHARLOTTE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
83OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
47
RET
17
DB
131OF 138
DB RET
23
SECONDARYUAB DEFENSE
CLT PASS CATCHERSn=2183% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN BARNESWRPORTAL · APP STATE
604TH YR7664★3+18
BRADY RHOADSTERET
522ND YR——UNR—
TANK BOSTONWRPORTAL · NC STATE
472ND YR—45★3—
JAYLEN HAMPTONWRRET
462ND YR2717★3+25
GUS MCGEETERET
444TH YR6637★3-35
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UAB SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTA'VEON MCKENZIEDBPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
523RD YR3017★3—
DIEZEL WILKINSONDBTRUE FR
483RD YR2464★3—
JEREMIAH JORDANDBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
474TH YR6745★3+24
QUE BILLINGSLEYDBPORTAL · GARDNER-WEBB
463RD YR61—UNR+14
DARRELL SWEETINGDBPORTAL · MARSHALL
453RD YR7841★3-22
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UAB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.6
39.4
— OFFENSE
50.3
44.3
— DEFENSE
46.9
34.5
SP+ OVERALL
-25.2
-17.3
FPI
-16.5
-15.4
ELO
1168
1403
TALENT
577
606
PRODUCTION
4
10
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+21
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UAB
OFF EFFICIENCY
6
58
DEF EFFICIENCY
0
3
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
47
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
99
37
FINISHING DRIVES
6
64
FIELD POSITION
81
55
TURNOVER MARGIN
11
6
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UAB
PASS RATE
51.9%
34.0%
PACE
27.1s
25.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.2%
71.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.2%
47.5%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
72.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLT, ORANGE = UAB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE