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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›RICE @ UNT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
RICE
NORTH TEXAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DATCU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
124FPI
RICEAACRICE
1-1
28
4
40
39%
28
46
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
63FPI
UNTAACNORTH TEXAS
1-1
31
93
9
3%
54
35
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
RICE14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
1
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE1p
1
TEMPO28p
28
UNT75CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
87
PROE
84
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE87p
87
PROE84p
84
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNTRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.8
NORTH TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRICENORTH TEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB96%Ty MorrisPORTAL · RUTGERS · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew AweLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaise TitaLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB86%Chase JenkinsQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew DevillierPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB77%Omari PorterCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus WilliamsPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeyton StevensonS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE76%Micah BarnettTE · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron TurnerWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrayden DickmannPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%Sean SullivanOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid StickleOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn LongOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL44%Tony AnyanwuDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake BoenischDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB18%Daelen AlexanderPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAustin Harnetiaux · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAJesus Machado · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONJayden Cupitt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAyden Wilhelm · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCaden VerMaas · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAJamir Benjamin · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAKoa Akui · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMax Mosey · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSBen Grice · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTBarry Jackson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMarcus Page Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Leyonte Chandler · SIGNEE ★3Clay Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLPreston Zinter · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEChris Knauls · SIGNEE ★3Seth Clarke · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDionne Sims · SIGNEE ★3Fisher Leftwich · SIGNEE ★3Justin Powell · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RICE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.137 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.654 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.127 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB565666052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454399665 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4242271225CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL363630017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL363641591913 OF 19 GRADED
LB5454294774 OF 7 GRADED
DB333337251910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%8
RECRUITING CLASS#104 · 0/23 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND+18 · 3 CYCLES86
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNTNEAL BROWNFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
PACE
8484
PASS RATE
1919
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
88
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRICE OFFENSEUNT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
56
RET
0
NATIONAL
97OF 136
RET
5
FULL DEFENSENORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
RICE QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACURRI BROWNQBPORTAL · UCF
514TH YR5691★4-51
GAEL OCHOAQBPORTAL · UNLV
502ND YR—41★3—
PATRICK CRAYTON JR.QBRET
411ST YR2334★3—
LUCAS SCHEERHORNQBRET
472ND YR—2★3—
AYDEN WILHELMQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—65★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS80% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3516%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
3513%11%
SECONDARYDB
4723%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
117OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
36
RET
0
DL
119OF 138
DL RET
16
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
13
FRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
RICE OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE BLEDSOEOLRET
513RD YR—35★3—
COLE PRINCIPEOLRET
502ND YR—22★3—
LUKE NEEDHAMOLRET
503RD YR—32★3—
PEYTON FARMEROLRET
493RD YR—40★3—
PATRICK VALENTOLRET
483RD YR—19★2+48 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS85% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZAKYE BARKERLBPORTAL · SMU
674TH YR8945★3+5
AARON ALEXANDERLBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
564TH YR7928★3+11
DAVION RHODESDLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
534TH YR—28★3+1 2025
BRAYDEN KNOXDLRET
522ND YR—50★3—
NOLAN CLARKDLTRUE FR
524TH YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
39
PERF
54
RET
96
DL
119OF 138
DL RET
16
LB
113OF 138
LB RET
13
FRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
RICE RUNNING BACKSn=64% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYVONN BYARSRBRET
552ND YR4467★3+28
CARSON MORGANRBRET
513RD YR141★2+21
QUINTON JACKSONRBRET
484TH YR8922★3+12
D'ANDRE HARDEMAN JR.RBRET
452ND YR5837★3+36
JUSTIN POWELLRBTRUE FR
411ST YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS85% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553516%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453513%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERICE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
42
RET
12
DB
101OF 138
DB RET
23
SECONDARYNORTH TEXAS DEFENSE
RICE PASS CATCHERSn=2588% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BARRY JACKSON JR.WRPORTAL · CINCINNATI
493RD YR—17★3—
DAVIS LANEWRTRUE FR
474TH YR917★3—
PAYTON MATTHEWSWRRET
452ND YR—32★3-23 2025
BRAYLEN WALKERWRRET
444TH YR—12★2+8 2025
BEN GRICEWRPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
372ND YR128★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON TAYLORCBPORTAL · EMPORIA STATE
504TH YR664★3—
CJ COOMBESSTRUE FR
504TH YR17—UNR—
BRANDON JONESSPORTAL · MCNEESE
502ND YR1527★3—
CAMEREN JENKINSSPORTAL · BAYLOR
504TH YR6745★3-1
JADEN ALLENCBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
483RD YR1528★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.7
40.9
— OFFENSE
64.5
53.6
— DEFENSE
50.9
28.3
SP+ OVERALL
-15.1
-8.1
FPI
-14.7
0.8
ELO
1147
1699
TALENT
590
602
PRODUCTION
13
23
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.01
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
OFF EFFICIENCY
6
99
DEF EFFICIENCY
52
44
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
34
75
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
0
60
FINISHING DRIVES
28
93
FIELD POSITION
90
2
TURNOVER MARGIN
26
91
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RICE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
PASS RATE
19.2%
44.4%
PACE
30.0s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
88.0%
62.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
35.1%
57.8%
PLAYS / GAME
60.0
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
9.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RICE, ORANGE = UNT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE