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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›AF @ ARMY›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
AIR FORCE
ARMY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|MICHIE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
91FPI
AFMWCAIR FORCE
1-1
1
76
0
57%
81
32
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
78FPI
ARMYAACARMY
1-1
1
20
30
80%
49
34
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
AF29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
6
PROE
1
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE6p
6
PROE1p
1
TEMPO81p
81
ARMY20CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
9
PROE
0
TEMPO
49
EXPLOSIVE9p
9
PROE0p
0
TEMPO49p
49
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.3
ARMY won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAIR FORCEARMY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE90%Bruin FleischmannTE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker MenefeeTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade HarrisWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL84%Payton ZdroikDL · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan SwartzDT · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel GrobeDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Kade FrewRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan CarsonRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL54%Costen CooleyG · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack BurnettC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor TateOT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB15%Jackson AdamsLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB11%Levi BrownCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEMerrik Bloomgren · SIGNEE ★3Kobe Dooley · SIGNEE ★3Aidan Stewart · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLBlaze Jones · SIGNEE ★3Xander Shaw · SIGNEE ★3Brody Sieck · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBBen Bucher · SIGNEEPARTIAL
OLJacob Beatty · SIGNEECaleb Rye · SIGNEELucas Hillsten · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBHenry Newton · SIGNEEBrady Kuhn · SIGNEERyder Skanson · SIGNEEINTACT
DBKnight Wilson · SIGNEE ★3Damian Horace · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AIR FORCE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
57.893 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.444 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
70.798 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3030—7162 OF 6 GRADED
RB3939984118 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE353538620CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL545416021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL2828786176 OF 17 GRADED
LB28282796167 OF 16 GRADED
DB30301842228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#141 · 0/49 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+31 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 4 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARMYJEFF MONKEN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
2020
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
11
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HAVOC
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AFTROY CALHOUN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
3232
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAF OFFENSEARMY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
30
RET
71
NATIONAL
79OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSEARMY DEFENSE
AF QUARTERBACKSn=629% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LIAM SZARKAQBRET
733RD YR52—UNR+46
EVAN MEDDERSQBRET
522ND YR——UNR—
KEMPER HODGESQBRET
524TH YR2231★3—
JOSH JOHNSONQBRET
514TH YR——UNR+40 2025
CADE SPRADLINGQBTRUE FR
352ND YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 84 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2197%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
317%0%
SECONDARYDB
4879%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
16
PERF
54
RET
0
DL
136OF 138
DL RET
97
LB
126OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE
AF OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEC FALKOLRET
804TH YR—22★3-14 2025
JON ASHFORDOLRET
593RD YR——UNR—
NATHAN ELWOODOLRET
584TH YR——UNR+33 2025
LUKE VONDERHAAROTRET
564TH YR—6★2—
TJ TARASCIOOLRET
544TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-7n=49 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KODY HARRIS-MILLERDLRET
794TH YR77—UNR-26
BRYSON BANKSLBRET
522ND YR2030★3—
NICK BUCHYSDLRET
503RD YR32—UNR—
ELIJAH WALTONLBRET
503RD YR22—UNR—
KAI WOOLFOLKLBRET
502ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
39
RET
84
DL
136OF 138
DL RET
97
LB
126OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE
AF RUNNING BACKSn=1116% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN ALLENRBRET
544TH YR86—UNR-5
ROCCO CONTIRBRET
494TH YR26—UNR+29
GAGE LADUEFBRET
493RD YR14—UNR—
OMARI ELIASFBRET
373RD YR—9★2—
LUKE RAUHFBRET
353RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552197%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45317%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAIR FORCE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
131OF 138
TAL
38
PERF
35
RET
6
DB
91OF 138
DB RET
79
SECONDARYARMY DEFENSE
AF PASS CATCHERSn=2094% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SIMON KIBBEETERET
514TH YR——UNR—
MATT LONGWRRET
483RD YR2022★3—
ADAM HRYNCIWWRRET
454TH YR——UNR—
MASON HAYESWRRET
353RD YR—17★3—
KEEGAN SACKWRTRUE FR
352ND YR—27★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY SECONDARYn=35 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLE SEARIGHTDBRET
543RD YR47—UNR—
JAYLEN JONESSRET
522ND YR24—UNR—
JAYDAN MAYESCBRET
504TH YR—64★3-14 2025
ZANE TALLMANDBRET
502ND YR——UNR—
CHRISTOPHER WILLIAMSSRET
504TH YR2152★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
58.9
47.4
— OFFENSE
63.4
55.7
— DEFENSE
54.3
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
-0.1
1.1
FPI
-5.8
-2.8
ELO
1423
1530
TALENT
272
304
PRODUCTION
39
42
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−39
−41
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
OFF EFFICIENCY
90
48
DEF EFFICIENCY
2
14
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
28
8
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
96
FINISHING DRIVES
82
38
FIELD POSITION
69
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
54
69
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
PASS RATE
15.4%
18.3%
PACE
25.2s
27.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
88.2%
84.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
27.3%
32.0%
PLAYS / GAME
71.5
65.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.3%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AF, ORANGE = ARMY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE