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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›NIU @ SJSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SAN JOSÉ STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CEFCU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
132FPI
NIUMWCNORTHERN ILLINOIS
0-2
9
3
26
44%
24
34
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
116FPI
SJSUMWCSAN JOSÉ STATE
2-1
20
53
16
4%
69
50
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NIU10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
2
PROE
3
TEMPO
24
EXPLOSIVE2p
2
PROE3p
3
TEMPO24p
24
SJSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
57
PROE
97
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE57p
57
PROE97p
97
TEMPO69p
69
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHERN ILLINOISSAN JOSÉ STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB93%Quinn UrwilerLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFilip MaciorowskiPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarc PrettoPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB89%Jasper BeelerPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob FinleyPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMuhammed JammehS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Mark HensleyPORTAL · MISSOURI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoy WilliamsDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalonnie WilliamsDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Evan MalcoreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbiathar CurryOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan TweedyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Chavon WrightRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLazaro RogersPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB57%Josh HolstPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE49%Jake ApplegetPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Givens IIIPORTAL · NEVADA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRoss Ogden · SIGNEE ★3Jack Murray · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSE COLLEGETyrese Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · MOREHOUSEAvery Jones · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJvon Hatcher · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Hassett · SIGNEE ★3Terry Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrendan Alexander · SIGNEE ★3Cian Mahoney · SIGNEE ★3Brendan Grabot · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJaiduan Cranford · SIGNEE ★3Da'sean Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTaron Dickens · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINABryshawn Brown · SIGNEE ★3Asa Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEBraylon Agee · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Green · SIGNEE ★3Zaire McKinney · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.78 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.857 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.86 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444374672 OF 7 GRADED
RB6161267774 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE222235802210 OF 22 GRADED
OL36362440206 OF 20 GRADED
DL222227612313 OF 23 GRADED
LB3939—7105 OF 10 GRADED
DB494931281912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#82 · 0/27 BC39
CLASS RANK TREND+17 · 3 CYCLES84
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
PACE
4848
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HAVOC
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NIUROB HARLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNIU OFFENSESJSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
44
RET
46
NATIONAL
118OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSESAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
NIU QUARTERBACKSn=754% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN MACONQBRET
534TH YR4128★3-50
TARON DICKENSQBPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
483RD YR2345★3—
BRADY DAVIDSONQBRET
402ND YR—32★3-56 2025
BRYSHAWN BROWNQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
ASA JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3863%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3683%0%
SECONDARYDB
401%6%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
36
RET
40
DL
113OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
111OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
NIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LOGAN GROSSOLRET
502ND YR—17★3—
TYLER CHAMBERSOLRET
501ST YR—18★3—
LUKE SKARTVEDTOLRET
493RD YR—18★3—
BEN GUSTAFSONOLRET
492ND YR—53★3—
LANDON HRONOLRET
493RD YR—17★3+41 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTIN STEARNSDLRET
614TH YR7745★3+19
NASERI DANIELSONLBRET
573RD YR5252★3—
DYLAN LEELBRET
553RD YR4825★3—
JEREMIAH TUIILEILADLTRUE FR
521ST YR3143★3—
IAN SHEWELLDLPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
524TH YR—9★3-29 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
26
PERF
61
RET
77
DL
113OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
111OF 138
LB RET
83
FRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
NIU RUNNING BACKSn=723% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PORTERRBRET
522ND YR309★2+30 2025
TELLY JOHNSON JR.RBRET
503RD YR8925★3-11
TRISTON WHITERBRET
501ST YR532★3—
JAIDAUN CRANFORDRBTRUE FR
411ST YR559★3—
DA'SEAN HOWARDRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—41★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553863%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453683%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
22
RET
80
DB
124OF 138
DB RET
1
SECONDARYSAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE
NIU PASS CATCHERSn=2220% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM THOMPSONWRTRUE FR
574TH YR7764★3+16
DEAREE ROGERSWRRET
564TH YR7364★3+12
KELAN MCINERNEYWRTRUE FR
522ND YR—1★2—
GLEN WEBERTETRUE FR
513RD YR——UNR—
JASON FOWLERTERET
482ND YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM99% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH BUXTONCBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
572ND YR5264★3—
CALEB WOMACKCBRET
544TH YR372★2—
GRECO CARRILLOCBRET
522ND YR2616★3—
RUNYE NORTONCBRET
504TH YR32—UNR—
TULI TAGOVAILOA-AMOSASRET
502ND YR3919★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.5
43.0
— OFFENSE
42.6
45.5
— DEFENSE
44.5
40.4
SP+ OVERALL
-16.9
-12.5
FPI
-17.9
-11.0
ELO
1245
1407
TALENT
537
569
PRODUCTION
11
12
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
4
58
DEF EFFICIENCY
20
39
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
51
55
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
82
36
FINISHING DRIVES
18
6
FIELD POSITION
87
88
TURNOVER MARGIN
44
7
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
PASS RATE
51.7%
51.7%
PACE
30.5s
26.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.7%
51.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
81.1%
58.3%
PLAYS / GAME
59.0
69.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NIU, ORANGE = SJSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE