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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 10›WYO @ UNLV›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BUF @ M-OH0
OHIO @ AKR0
TOL @ SAC0
CMU @ EMU0
BALL @ MASS0
JMU @ USM0
UTSA @ FAU0
VT @ SMU0
USF @ ECU0
NEB @ ILL0
UNM @ NEV0
TCU @ ARIZ0
WVU @ TTU0
OU @ FLA0
HAW @ UTEP0
UCF @ KU0
IOWA @ NU0
ODU @ CCU0
USA @ UL0
UCLA @ MINN0
UK @ TENN0
DUKE @ NCSU0
CLEM @ SYR0
MSU @ MICH0
TEX @ MIZ0
MRSH @ GASO0
LOU @ GT0
OKST @ KSU0
ALA @ LSU0
CLT @ UAB0
LT @ TROY0
PSU @ WASH0
UGA @ MISS0
NIU @ SJSU0
ORE @ OSU0
ISU @ BAY0
TLSA @ TULN0
COLO @ ASU0
VAN @ MSST0
RICE @ UNT0
MD @ PUR0
TA&M @ SC0
GAST @ APP0
CIN @ HOU0
BYU @ UTAH0
FSU @ BC0
ARK @ AUB0
RUTG @ WIS0
UNC @ CONN0
DEL @ KENN0
ULM @ ARST0
WKU @ MTSU0
TEM @ NAVY0
MOST @ FIU0
LIB @ NMSU0
BOIS @ CSU0
SHSU @ JXST0
AF @ ARMY0
MIA @ ND0
FRES @ USU0
WYO @ UNLV0
TXST @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WYOMING
UNLV
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:30 ET|ALLEGIANT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP52|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
133FPI
WYOMWCWYOMING
1-2
8
4
77
23%
5
36
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
93FPI
UNLVMWCUNLV
1-2
60
81
21
15%
77
39
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WYO18CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
6
PROE
42
TEMPO
5
EXPLOSIVE6p
6
PROE42p
42
TEMPO5p
5
UNLV50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
44
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE44p
44
TEMPO77p
77
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WYORECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
WYOMING won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNLVRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWYOMINGUNLV2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Kaden AndersonPORTAL · TARLETON STATE · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB82%Brayden JohnsonLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan EllerLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEnock SibomanaLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL78%Tyce WestlandDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen FlorentineNT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLucas SamsulaPORTAL · UTAH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE72%John Michael GyllenborgTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan SvobodaTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen SargentWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB64%Sam ScottRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerron KellmanPORTAL · LIBERTY · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax WhiteRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB61%Tyrese BossPORTAL · ARIZONA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew JohnsonS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDainsus MillerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Jack WalshC · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden BarnettG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWes KingOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTyler Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · WILLIAM & MARYTaylor Hasselbeck · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLJa'Quan Redfern · PORTAL ★3 · MURRAY STATEDante Bruley · SIGNEE ★3Mason Wright · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEJustin Popovich · PORTAL ★3 · LOCK HAVENJustin Popovich · PORTAL ★3 · LOCK HAVEN UNIVERSITYColin Ford · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBMarkell Holman · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN ILLINOISDiore Hubbard · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAREFILLED
DBTravis Franklin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEDa'Marion Brownlee · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATETherman Williams · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJeremiah Katt · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ARIZONAChandler Donaway · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MJonathan Pearcy · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WYOMING
CARRIED COMPOSITE
27.519 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
26.025 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.619 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB424266051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3939416484 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE323231692210 OF 22 GRADED
OL39393077206 OF 20 GRADED
DL333320512211 OF 22 GRADED
LB3434299895 OF 9 GRADED
DB48484572209 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE8th8
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%9
RECRUITING CLASS#114 · 0/22 BC15
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 3 CYCLES26
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 19 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNLVDAN MULLEN2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
4141
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WYOJAY SAWVEL3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
PACE
4747
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HAVOC
1010
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWYO OFFENSEUNLV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWYOMING OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
42
RET
0
NATIONAL
126OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEUNLV DEFENSE
WYO QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER HUGHESQBPORTAL · WILLIAM & MARY
494TH YR2717★3—
LANDON SIMSQBRET
523RD YR——UNR—
MASON DRUBEQBRET
451ST YR—66★3-46 2025
TAYLOR HASSELBECKQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—47★3—
TYLER FRANKLINQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4156%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3450%15%
SECONDARYDB
4781%17%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWYOMING OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
39
RET
77
DL
104OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
117OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE
WYO OFFENSIVE LINEn=2023% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GIOVANNI PANOZZOOLRET
492ND YR721★3—
NATHAN GEIGEROLRET
603RD YR——UNR—
QUINN GROVESTEEN-MATCHEYOTRET
513RD YR—14★2—
JASON MACIEJCZAKOLPORTAL · NEBRASKA
503RD YR—41★3—
JOSIAH PETAIAOLRET
493RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIAH LOGODLRET
541ST YR3922★3—
KAL-EL TOGAFAUDLRET
521ST YR3340★3—
POE PURCELLDLTRUE FR
521ST YR3155★3—
KENJI SCANLANDERET
522ND YR3122★3—
HERB GRAYDLPORTAL · TENNESSEE
522ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWYOMING OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
39
RET
64
DL
104OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
117OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE
WYO RUNNING BACKSn=836% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAMUEL HARRISRBRET
592ND YR6846★3+15
NICO HAMILTONRBRET
492ND YR1134★3—
JADEN LAWRENCERBRET
491ST YR525★3—
MARKELL HOLMANRBPORTAL · WESTERN ILLINOIS
434TH YR145★3—
NIKOS VARELASRBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554156%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453450%15%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWYOMING OFFENSE
NATIONAL
134OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
32
RET
69
DB
99OF 138
DB RET
81
SECONDARYUNLV DEFENSE
WYO PASS CATCHERSn=2231% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAKE WILSONTERET
512ND YR843★3—
ISAAC SCHOENFELDTERET
474TH YR2911★2—
CHARLIE COENENWRRET
474TH YR35—UNR—
TYLER SIDDONSTEPORTAL · CENTRAL ARKANSAS
464TH YR—31★3—
KYLE FRENDTTERET
452ND YR2937★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM19% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AVERY HELMDBTRUE FR
564TH YR8892★4-22
TRE FULTONDBRET
512ND YR6845★3+46
TONY-LOUIS NKUBADBTRUE FR
502ND YR3881★3—
MUMU BIN-WAHADDBRET
494TH YR9045★3-13
QUANDARIUS KEYESDBRET
494TH YR68—UNR+14
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.1
47.0
— OFFENSE
43.6
49.6
— DEFENSE
42.5
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
-13.7
-2.7
FPI
-19.6
-5.9
ELO
1268
1480
TALENT
528
696
PRODUCTION
25
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−21
−14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.01
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
OFF EFFICIENCY
14
83
DEF EFFICIENCY
82
24
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
18
90
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
66
21
FINISHING DRIVES
4
81
FIELD POSITION
98
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
80
58
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
PASS RATE
44.5%
47.1%
PACE
32.9s
26.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.6%
58.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
44.7%
58.0%
PLAYS / GAME
54.7
69.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WYO, ORANGE = UNLV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE