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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›OHIO @ M-OH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OHIO
MIAMI (OH)
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
TUE 19:00 ET|YAGER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
110FPI
OHIOMACOHIO
1-1
7
53
12
63%
46
20
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
112FPI
M-OHMACMIAMI (OH)
1-1
38
10
31
14%
15
24
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OHIO30CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
13
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE13p
13
TEMPO46p
46
M-OH35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
30
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE30p
30
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OHIORECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
OHIO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIOMIAMI (OH)2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Parker NavarroQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Davion WeatherspoonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick MarinaroOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordon JonesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE84%Chase HendricksPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRodney Harris IIWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason WilliamsPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB74%Adonis Williams Jr.S · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ThomesonPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTank PearsonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Sieh BanguraRB · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL38%Anas LuqmanPORTAL · UCONN · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPius OdjugoDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Cameron HollobaughLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakel WilliamsLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLevi Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLCJ Dawson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBSandro Malicevic · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISTrumain Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · LIU POST4 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEPreston Bowman · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYRiley Palmeter · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGERiley Palmeter · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKJ Sejour · PORTAL ★3 · CHATTANOOGAKindall Brown · SIGNEE ★3James Brewer III · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJames Kelly · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTyler Gillison · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEAustin Adkins · SIGNEE ★3Nate Hunt-Heller · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.028 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
9.74 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.561 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666—9052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858355054 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE3131571922CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL333313017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL38383767177 OF 17 GRADED
LB40402588115 OF 11 GRADED
DB30302961218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#107 · 0/18 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
00
PASS RATE
3131
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OHIOJOHN HAUSERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOHIO OFFENSEM-OH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
66
RET
90
NATIONAL
74OF 136
RET
39
FULL DEFENSEMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
OHIO QUARTERBACKSn=510% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICK POULOSQBRET
504TH YR46—UNR-47
LEVI DAVISQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
MATT VEZZAQBTRUE FR
353RD YR8—UNR—
HYPE GRANDQBRET
351ST YR—40★3—
MATTHEW PAPASQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4272%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
5670%0%
SECONDARYDB
4450%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
13
PERF
33
RET
0
DL
99OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
38OF 138
LB RET
70
FRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
OHIO OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SANDRO MALICEVICOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—28★3—
CASSIUS HULBERTOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—2★3—
BRYCE PARSONOLRET
522ND YR—47★3—
BEN MALDONADOOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JARIAN SHELBYOLRET
484TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ YOUNGLBTRUE FR
753RD YR8322★3-22
BLAYNE MYRICKLBPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
624TH YR9728★3+22
DEVIN BELLDLRET
572ND YR5822★3+10
JAVON HAMMONDSDLRET
552ND YR—74★3—
MALCOLM MCCAINLBRET
503RD YR8030★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
41OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
50
DL
99OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
38OF 138
LB RET
70
FRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
OHIO RUNNING BACKSn=550% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DUNCAN BRUNERBRET
493RD YR7829★3-30
VICTOR ROSARBPORTAL · UCONN
464TH YR9638★3-22
IRVING BROWNRBRET
411ST YR534★3—
MIKE TAYLOR JR.RBRET
411ST YR558★3—
JAMES KELLYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554272%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455670%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
31
RET
19
DB
114OF 138
DB RET
50
SECONDARYMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE
OHIO PASS CATCHERSn=2281% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW METZGERTETRUE FR
512ND YR347★3—
AJ MILLERTERET
502ND YR120★3—
EIAN PUGHWRRET
444TH YR5472★3-46
DOM DORWARTWRRET
442ND YR6553★3-18
JAKE FURTNEYTEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
402ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DILLON TATUMDBPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
514TH YR8589★4-18
AMARIYUN KNIGHTENDBPORTAL · INDIANA
514TH YR8589★3-19
JACKSON PONSDBRET
502ND YR3534★3—
BEN MINICHDBPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
504TH YR4087★4—
JERMAINE AGEEDBRET
482ND YR339★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.0
39.3
— OFFENSE
55.6
48.4
— DEFENSE
38.4
30.3
SP+ OVERALL
-12.3
-6.6
FPI
-9.7
-10.7
ELO
1320
1252
TALENT
523
621
PRODUCTION
21
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−16
−21
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.07
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
OFF EFFICIENCY
71
20
DEF EFFICIENCY
55
68
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
41
32
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
39
72
FINISHING DRIVES
47
45
FIELD POSITION
36
14
TURNOVER MARGIN
64
52
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
PASS RATE
43.1%
48.6%
PACE
27.7s
32.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.4%
59.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
53.5%
64.9%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
55.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
10.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OHIO, ORANGE = M-OH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE