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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›SAC @ CMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SACRAMENTO STATE
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
WED 00:00 ET|KELLY/SHORTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
138FPI
SACMACSACRAMENTO STATE
1-2
18
0
0
0%
46
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
134FPI
CMUMACCENTRAL MICHIGAN
1-1
9
11
24
54%
7
3
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SAC34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
TEMPO46p
46
CMU23CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
4
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE4p
4
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CMURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSACRAMENTO STATECENTRAL MICHIGAN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jamar MaloneQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%Damian Henderson IIPORTAL · COLORADO · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Bear TenneyTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Jose SotoOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Jayland McGlothenPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Josh CashiolaPORTAL · UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Koa AkuiPORTAL · RICE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCarson Conklin · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEJaylen Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEINTACT
RBCincere Rhaney · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEDavion Godley · PORTAL ★3 · WEBER STATEINTACT
WR/TEMatthew Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEEllijah Washington · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEKamarie Smith · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLGarrison Blank · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAINTACT
DLNick Dimitris · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MJamel Howard Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINDevyn Blake · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBJiah Walls · SIGNEE ★3Leki Holani · SIGNEE ★3Iosefa Lealofi · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBNoah King · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAmari Wallace · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIQualyn McQueen · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKA-KEARNEYINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SACRAMENTO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB444445053 OF 5 GRADED
RB626294595 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE58583535229 OF 22 GRADED
OL6464140209 OF 20 GRADED
DL444438281813 OF 18 GRADED
LB333317651511 OF 15 GRADED
DB444438132117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%29
RECRUITING CLASS#125 · 0/20 BC7
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUS——
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CMUMATT DRINKALL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
PACE
88
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HAVOC
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SACALONZO CARTERFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSAC OFFENSECMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
44
RET
0
NATIONAL
76OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSECENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE
SAC QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON SHARMANQBTRUE FR
503RD YR29—UNR+33
CARSON CONKLINQBPORTAL · FRESNO STATE
433RD YR5445★3-33
JAYLEN PATTERSONQBPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
411ST YR—17★3—
BRIAN SALAZARQBTRUE FR
312ND YR2—UNR—
LIAM MEEKERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4458%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
428%0%
SECONDARYDB
4628%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
14
PERF
64
RET
0
DL
91OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
8
FRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE
SAC OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHONTRAIL KEYOLTRUE FR
524TH YR3436★3—
BRANDON SOUSAOLRET
514TH YR419★2—
BRYSON SUMMERSOLRET
474TH YR459★3—
JEREMIAH STALLWORTHOLRET
442ND YR3934★3—
VAE SOIFUAOLPORTAL · WEBER STATE
434TH YR419★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS62% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JJ DOUGLASDLRET
492ND YR5327★3+44
QUAVION BIRDDLRET
472ND YR5312★2—
KORVER DEMMADLRET
453RD YR71—UNR-4
NATHAN VANTIMMERENDLRET
443RD YR3424★3—
XAVIER WHITELBRET
423RD YR5216★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
62
RET
45
DL
91OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
92OF 138
LB RET
8
FRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE
SAC RUNNING BACKSn=955% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH ENERBTRUE FR
521ST YR26—UNR+27
DANIEL SWINNEYRBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
CINCERE RHANEYRBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
512ND YR2445★3+24
JAMAR CURTISRBRET
514TH YR302★3-33
ELIAS BROWNRBRET
474TH YR11—UNR—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS64% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554458%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45428%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESACRAMENTO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
40OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
58
RET
35
DB
103OF 138
DB RET
28
SECONDARYCENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE
SAC PASS CATCHERSn=2265% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH HUDDLETERET
522ND YR1834★3—
ONTERRIO SMITH JR.WRRET
493RD YR3238★3-54
RAIDEN BROWNWRPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
492ND YR34—★3—
KENYON SHABAZZWRTRUE FR
483RD YR13—UNR—
JORDAN WILLIAMSTERET
484TH YR5628★3+31
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM72% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAION JACKSONDBRET
623RD YR9322★3-6
JUSTIN TAYLORDBPORTAL · WYOMING
503RD YR5728★3+62
DARRELL BRYANT JR.DBPORTAL · NORTHERN COLORADO
444TH YR199★3—
MATTHEW MCKENZIEDBTRUE FR
403RD YR1147★3—
DONAVAN PHILORDDBPORTAL · CAMPBELL
402ND YR1462★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SAC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.9
39.6
— OFFENSE
55.4
43.9
— DEFENSE
40.3
35.3
SP+ OVERALL
-21.7
-16.9
FPI
-24.9
-18.6
ELO
1324
1253
TALENT
561
540
PRODUCTION
5
14
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+42
−11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SAC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
PASS RATE
54.9%
36.4%
PACE
27.7s
33.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.9%
73.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
82.3%
55.3%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
53.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.1%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SAC, ORANGE = CMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE