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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›MEM @ USF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MEMPHIS
SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 20:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
69FPI
MEMAACMEMPHIS
2-1
52
70
30
6%
18
44
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
67FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
2-0
63
84
48
13%
15
31
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MEM56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
60
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE60p
60
TEMPO18p
18
USF24CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
50
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE50p
50
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MEMRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
MEMPHIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMEMPHISSOUTH FLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Brendon LewisQB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ HillPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB100%Greg Desrosiers Jr.RB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSutton SmithPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrank PeasantRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB98%Everett Roussaw Jr.LB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BrumfieldLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMarco WardPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB95%Drue WattsDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamari WilsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris BracyPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE89%Cortez Braham Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamari HawkinsPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RossPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL89%William Whitlow Jr.DL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BellDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPooda WalkerDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL61%Malachi BrelandOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris AdamsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis BurkeDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMarcus Stokes · PORTAL ★3 · WEST FLORIDAAir Noland · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAREFILLED
RBDallan Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJordan Thompson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBElijah Fernandez · SIGNEE ★3Kadan Spratling · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBIan Foster · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSEllis Ellis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYDilan Williamson · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY ST PAUL3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETychaun Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSJaylin Taylor · SIGNEE ★3Zechariah Jenkins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLJabari Ishmael · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSEric Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEMarshall Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLCarde Smith · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADORichard Thigpen · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Alford · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MEMPHIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
10.82 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.415 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
5.81 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575764051 OF 5 GRADED
RB474743063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE42423614199 OF 19 GRADED
OL3333309167 OF 16 GRADED
DL555557142010 OF 20 GRADED
LB5656550145 OF 14 GRADED
DB44444920227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE52nd52
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%48
RECRUITING CLASS#72 · 0/21 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 51 IN / 47 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MEMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
PACE
6363
PASS RATE
3232
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMEM OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
57
RET
0
NATIONAL
44OF 136
RET
12
FULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
MEM QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS STOKESQBPORTAL · WEST FLORIDA
513RD YR3764★3+37
AIR NOLANDQBPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
382ND YR664★3—
DENZEL GARDNERQBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
351ST YR—45★3—
GAVIN OWENSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
GRANT TROUTMANQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5456%13%
SECONDARYDB
5237%13%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
33
RET
9
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
47OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
MEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1691% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SKYLER GRANTOLPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
604TH YR8745★3+19
PHILLIP GRAYOLPORTAL · RICHMOND
514TH YR3911★2—
BRIAN GRANTOLPORTAL · TENNESSEE
494TH YR—17★3—
KOBY KEENUMOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
493RD YR—77★3—
MAARTEN WOUDSMAOLTRUE FR
484TH YR8945★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN JENKINSDTRET
623RD YR5365★3—
ASANI REDWOODDTPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
564TH YR9154★3-12
MICHAEL WILLIAMS IIDERET
554TH YR9082★3+20
GAVIN LEACHLBRET
522ND YR2632★3—
ASHTON MOSLEYLBRET
522ND YR4249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
47OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
MEM RUNNING BACKSn=6100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLIN CARTERRBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
602ND YR5637★3+23
MANNY COVEYRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
523RD YR5645★3+27
DALLAN HAYDENRBPORTAL · COLORADO
474TH YR9364★3-32
ERIC PERRYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
JORDAN THOMPSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455456%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
42
RET
14
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
MEM PASS CATCHERSn=1986% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYCHAUN CHAPMANWRPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
554TH YR7664★3+28
STONKA BURNSIDEWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
522ND YR3928★3—
JEMYRI DAVISWRPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
513RD YR2745★3—
JERMANE HAYESWRPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
492ND YR2659★3—
BRADY KLUSEWRRET
483RD YR7244★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AYDEN JACKSONDBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
614TH YR96—UNR+30
TEDDY FOSTERCBPORTAL · FLORIDA
523RD YR3564★3—
ISRAEL BOYCESPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
503RD YR6545★3+20
HERLIN PERRY JR.CBRET
501ST YR2552★3—
JAIR MURPHYCBRET
493RD YR33—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.5
40.5
— OFFENSE
57.4
38.4
— DEFENSE
49.5
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
0.4
-1.1
FPI
-0.2
0.3
ELO
1526
1676
TALENT
670
704
PRODUCTION
52
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
OFF EFFICIENCY
72
84
DEF EFFICIENCY
56
80
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
76
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
32
20
FINISHING DRIVES
84
94
FIELD POSITION
44
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
82
93
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
PASS RATE
39.5%
44.1%
PACE
31.4s
32.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.7%
62.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.3%
56.8%
PLAYS / GAME
57.3
55.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MEM, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE