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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›ASU @ UCF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARIZONA STATE
UCF
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
58FPI
ASUB12ARIZONA STATE
2-1
68
61
86
16%
43
68
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
52FPI
UCFB12UCF
2-1
53
66
82
25%
7
50
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ASU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
37
TEMPO
43
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE37p
37
TEMPO43p
43
UCF55CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
70
TEMPO
7
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE70p
70
TEMPO7p
7
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
UCF won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONA STATEUCF2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Sam LeavittPORTAL · LSU · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff SimsQB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB79%Raleek BrownPORTAL · TEXAS · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKanye UdohPORTAL · LIBERTY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB78%Jordan CrookLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeyshaun ElliottDRAFTED · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL71%Max IheanachorDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle ScottOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh AtkinsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%Myles RowserDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeith Abney IIDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavan RobinsonPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Chamon MetayerTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik McClainWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordyn TysonDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL54%Elijah O'NealDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob Rich KongaikaDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin WodtlyDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCutter Boley · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJake Fette · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBCardae Mack · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBOwen Long · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADO STATEMason Marden · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTana Alo-Tupuola · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHLuke Baklenko · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMACortavious Tisaby · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBAshton Stamps · PORTAL ★3 · LSULyrik Rawls · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASAntoine Belgrave-Shorter · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEOmarion Miller · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOReed Harris · PORTAL ★4 · BOSTON COLLEGERaiden Vines-Bright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJalen Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEEmar'rion Winston · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORJulian Hugo · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.332 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.437 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.533 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB636382043 OF 4 GRADED
RB5454656177 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505080372013 OF 20 GRADED
OL494966662113 OF 21 GRADED
DL595960502015 OF 20 GRADED
LB67677041107 OF 10 GRADED
DB565668451914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE68th68
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%64
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 4/17 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 24 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCFSCOTT FROST2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
3535
PASS RATE
7777
EXPLOSIVENESS
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9696
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
6868
PASS RATE
5050
EXPLOSIVENESS
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESASU OFFENSEUCF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
82
PERF
63
RET
0
NATIONAL
37OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSEUCF DEFENSE
ASU QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAKE FETTEQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—96★4—
MIKEY KEENEQBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
494TH YR9445★3+32
CUTTER BOLEYQBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
473RD YR7289★3+4
CAMERON DYERQBRET
472ND YR—91★4—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5858%14%
LINEBACKERSLB
4838%17%
SECONDARYDB
5150%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
80OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
49
RET
66
DL
38OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7UCF DEFENSE
ASU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2134% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAKUA PULEOLRET
584TH YR——UNR+37 2025
TANA ALO-TUPUOLAOLPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
563RD YR—78★3-5 2025
CHAMP WESTBROOKSOLRET
523RD YR—60★3—
ROB LAPUAHOOLRET
522ND YR—58★3—
MAKI STEWARTOLRET
512ND YR—76★3+45 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEWIS CARTERLBRET
704TH YR8778★3+2
JAHLEEL CULBREATHLBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
564TH YR9645★3+15
HORACE LOCKETTDTRET
544TH YR—78★3-32 2025
AYMERIC KOUMBAEDGERET
523RD YR2964★3—
BRAD GURLEY JR.DTPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
54
RET
61
DL
38OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
71OF 138
LB RET
38
FRONT-7UCF DEFENSE
ASU RUNNING BACKSn=739% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYSON BROWNRBRET
564TH YR6760★3+27
DAVID AVITRBPORTAL · VILLANOVA
523RD YR—45★3—
JASON BROWN JR.RBRET
523RD YR3390★4+37
CARDAE MACKRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—89★4—
GRAYSON RIGDONRBRET
512ND YR559★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555858%14%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454838%17%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
50
RET
37
DB
71OF 138
DB RET
50
SECONDARYUCF DEFENSE
ASU PASS CATCHERSn=2063% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OMARION MILLERWRPORTAL · COLORADO
664TH YR89100★4+27
REED HARRISWRPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
584TH YR9899★4+35
JALEN MOSSWRRET
544TH YR9964★3+4
AJ IATERET
522ND YR2288★4—
JAMES GIGGEYTERET
523RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB FLAGGDBPORTAL · MISSOURI
574TH YR—45★3—
DJ BELLDBRET
564TH YR—64★3-30 2025
DEMARI HENDERSONDBRET
564TH YR9677★3-4
JAYDEN WILLIAMSDBRET
544TH YR9445★3-8
JAYDEN BELLAMYDBRET
544TH YR9878★3-14
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.5
55.8
— OFFENSE
61.1
60.6
— DEFENSE
45.9
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
7.8
5.6
FPI
3.8
4.9
ELO
1535
1481
TALENT
722
672
PRODUCTION
64
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
OFF EFFICIENCY
24
26
DEF EFFICIENCY
58
40
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
64
92
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
94
FINISHING DRIVES
24
23
FIELD POSITION
78
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
21
34
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
PASS RATE
47.9%
43.0%
PACE
28.1s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.6%
61.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.1%
53.1%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ASU, ORANGE = UCF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE