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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›KSU @ TCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
KANSAS STATE
TCU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AMON G. CARTER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
30FPI
KSUB12KANSAS STATE
2-0
66
69
54
71%
77
63
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
1-1
72
84
64
22%
65
93
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
KSU58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
35
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE35p
35
TEMPO77p
77
TCU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
43
PROE
81
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE43p
43
PROE81p
81
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
KSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
KANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSAS STATETCU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL79%Cody StufflebeanDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamian IlalioDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChiddi ObiazorPORTAL · INDIANA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL77%Sam HechtDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew LeingangOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaylor PoitierOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Desmond PurnellLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin RomainePORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%VJ PayneDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQua MossPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunner MaldonadoS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE34%Jayce BrownPORTAL · LSU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill SwansonTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden LoftinPORTAL · UCLA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB33%Dylan EdwardsPORTAL · KANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVon RicePORTAL · HAWAI'I · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntonio MartinPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLWendell Gregory · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATEElijah Hill · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEKamari Burns · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKeegan Collins · SIGNEE ★3Oliver Miller · SIGNEE ★3Bennett Fraser · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBMekhi Mason · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHDJ Ackerson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKaleb Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISJosiah Vilmael · SIGNEE ★3Nick McClellan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJoshua Manning · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIBrandon White · PORTAL ★3 · HAWAI'IIzaiah Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJay Harris · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.836 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.156 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.625 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB55559310043 OF 4 GRADED
RB3939713964 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE4444594720CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL414158021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL57577429199 OF 19 GRADED
LB66666563119 OF 11 GRADED
DB595964572310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%63
RECRUITING CLASS#50 · 0/18 BC63
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KSUCOLLIN KLEINFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKSU OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
55
RET
100
NATIONAL
42OF 136
RET
37
FULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE
KSU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AVERY JOHNSONQBRET
654TH YR9196★4-18
BLAKE BARNETTQBRET
523RD YR—81★3—
JACOB KNUTHQBRET
414TH YR1068★3—
DILLON DUFFQBRET
352ND YR—64★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
4664%0%
SECONDARYDB
5389%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
75OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
KSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GEORGE FITZPATRICKOLRET
524TH YR—64★3—
MICHAEL CAPRIAOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JOHN PASTOREOLRET
514TH YR—53★3-23 2025
TANNER MORLEYOLPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
504TH YR—45★3+41 2025
TYLER JOHNSONOLPORTAL · AUBURN
494TH YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PAUL OYEWALEEDGERET
534TH YR9078★3-22
MICHAEL TEASON JR.LBRET
524TH YR3264★3—
MICHAEL SHORTLBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
514TH YR5564★3—
KELTEN MICKELLDTRET
504TH YR26—UNR—
JOHN SCHOBELEDGERET
492ND YR3176★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
119OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
39
RET
39
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
75OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
KSU RUNNING BACKSn=661% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MONTERRIO ELSTON JR.RBRET
522ND YR560★3—
JOE JACKSONRBRET
504TH YR8681★3+5
RODNEY FIELDS JR.RBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
503RD YR7764★3+23
JAY HARRISRBTRUE FR
484TH YR4985★3-35
TANNER WESTRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454664%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
44
RET
47
DB
59OF 138
DB RET
89
SECONDARYTCU DEFENSE
KSU PASS CATCHERSn=2053% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GARRETT OAKLEYTERET
624TH YR9140★3+17
JARON TIBBSWRRET
494TH YR9545★3-3
IZAIAH WILLIAMSWRPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
493RD YR3864★3-5
WILL ANCIAUXTERET
484TH YR5455★3-6
JOSH MANNINGWRTRUE FR
464TH YR8878★3-32
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEL JOHNSONSRET
704TH YR9984★4+6
KYLIN JACKSONSRET
584TH YR5964★3+27
JULIUS SIMMSSRET
532ND YR4965★3—
DEVYN HIDROGOSRET
523RD YR2775★3—
RYAN YAITESSRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.9
42.2
— OFFENSE
56.4
42.3
— DEFENSE
59.4
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
13.9
11.3
FPI
10.9
6.3
ELO
1684
1598
TALENT
719
731
PRODUCTION
76
77
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−11
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
33
68
DEF EFFICIENCY
67
63
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
96
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
35
FINISHING DRIVES
75
69
FIELD POSITION
32
35
TURNOVER MARGIN
89
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
PASS RATE
41.8%
49.3%
PACE
25.5s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.7%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.1%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
70.5
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.4%
4.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KSU, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE