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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›SC @ ARK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH CAROLINA
ARKANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
21FPI
SCSECSOUTH CAROLINA
2-0
90
36
79
69%
61
91
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
77FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-1
74
99
36
14%
96
99
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
48
PROE
47
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE48p
48
PROE47p
47
TEMPO61p
61
ARK61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
63
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE63p
63
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SCRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
SOUTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH CAROLINAARKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB71%Rahsul FaisonRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOscar Adaway IIIRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL64%Trovon BaughOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBoaz StanleyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTree BabaladeOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Bryan Thomas Jr.LB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesmond UmeozuluPORTAL · ALABAMA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJatius GeerLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL53%Nick BarrettDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonkell GoodwineDL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavonte MilesDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%DQ SmithPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalon KilgoreDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon CisseDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%Vandrevius JacobsPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan DingleTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian Rowe Jr.PORTAL · UCLA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Air NolandPORTAL · MEMPHIS · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBChristian Clark · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJabree Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEREFILLED
OLJacarrius Peak · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEEmmanuel Poku · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINASeth Smith · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ARIZONA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKeenan Britt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTomiwa Durojaiye · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISCaleb Herring · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEKelby Collins · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJ'Zavien Currence · SIGNEE ★4Kosci Barnes · SIGNEE ★4KJ Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TENitro Tuggle · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUECaden Ramsey · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBLandon Duckworth · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.868 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.659 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.264 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666859463 OF 6 GRADED
RB6464697275 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE656580602015 OF 20 GRADED
OL505065302111 OF 21 GRADED
DL606085321716 OF 17 GRADED
LB4848788896 OF 9 GRADED
DB636379662321 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE90th90
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%90
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 10/18 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SCSHANE BEAMER6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSC OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
66
RET
94
NATIONAL
77OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE
SC QUARTERBACKSn=66% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANORRIS SELLERSQBRET
713RD YR8991★4+17
CUTTER WOODSQBRET
501ST YR2578★3—
LUCIAN ANDERSON IIIQBPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
473RD YR4245★3-19
LANDON DUCKWORTHQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—95★4—
BRANDON CUNNINGHAMQBRET
471ST YR—85★4—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5540%11%
SECONDARYDB
5415%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
75OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
50
RET
30
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
SC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2170% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMMANUEL KOJO POKUOLTRUE FR
684TH YR—85★3—
JACARRIUS PEAKOLPORTAL · NC STATE
684TH YR—99★4+8 2025
HANK PURVISOLPORTAL · PURDUE
583RD YR—45★3+29 2025
SETH SMITHOLPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
504TH YR—78★3—
DARIUS GRAYOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—99★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN BOGLELBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
554TH YR5478★3—
STEVEN SOLES JR.DLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
543RD YR5464★3+53
PHOENIX JACKSONLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
534TH YR8378★3-9
CARLON JONESDLPORTAL · USC
523RD YR3664★3—
DAVID OKEDLRET
524TH YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
69
PERF
64
RET
73
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
SC RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ISAIAH AUGUSTAVERBRET
563RD YR7445★3+17
JAWARN HOWELLRBRET
533RD YR4764★3+31
JABREE COLEMANRBPORTAL · PENN STATE
491ST YR1164★3—
CHRISTIAN CLARKRBPORTAL · TEXAS
492ND YR5285★3-34
MATT FULLERRBRET
462ND YR6284★4-46
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455540%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
65
RET
60
DB
58OF 138
DB RET
15
SECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE
SC PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NYCK HARBORWRRET
564TH YR9799★5+5
MIKE TYLERTERET
512ND YR1382★3—
LEX CYRUSWRRET
511ST YR—87★4—
SEQUEL PATTERSONWRTRUE FR
491ST YR—90★4—
DONOVAN MURPHWRRET
482ND YR5894★4+26
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM85% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LA'KHI ROLANDDBPORTAL · MARYLAND
603RD YR—64★3+8 2025
MIGUEL MITCHELLDBRET
594TH YR9464★3+21
JOKER JOHNSONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR—92★4—
CHRISTIAN HARRISONDBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
484TH YR9264★3-6
BRYLAN GREENSTRUE FR
484TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.0
48.6
— OFFENSE
65.0
49.4
— DEFENSE
43.0
47.9
SP+ OVERALL
16.9
1.5
FPI
14.7
-1.7
ELO
1763
1490
TALENT
863
745
PRODUCTION
83
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.53
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
OFF EFFICIENCY
16
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
48
9
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
80
83
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
83
34
FINISHING DRIVES
5
79
FIELD POSITION
94
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
63
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
PASS RATE
44.4%
56.7%
PACE
26.7s
22.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.6%
55.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.5%
75.4%
PLAYS / GAME
67.5
78.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.9%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SC, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE