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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›MIZ @ UGA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MISSOURI
GEORGIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SANFORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#23AP
26FPI
MIZSECMISSOURI
2-0
87
82
99
42%
84
84
0.0
—
—
HOME
#2AP
4FPI
UGASECGEORGIA
2-0
100
73
92
69%
21
70
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MIZ53CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
51
PROE
23
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE51p
51
PROE23p
23
TEMPO84p
84
UGA46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
86
PROE
32
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE86p
86
PROE32p
32
TEMPO21p
21
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MIZRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
MISSOURI won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.0
GEORGIA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSOURIGEORGIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB81%Marvin Burks Jr.PORTAL · WISCONSIN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONToriano Pride Jr.DRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaylan CarnellS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB76%Beau PribulaPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Josiah TrotterDRAFTED · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil JacobsLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTriston NewsonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL54%Zion YoungDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris McClellanDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamon Wilson IIPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE50%Kevin Coleman Jr.DRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh ManningPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis JohnsonPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Keagen TrostDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor TollisonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB9%Marquise DavisPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBElijah Dotson · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANSione Laulea · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONChris Graves Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBAustin Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSGavin Sidwar · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBRobert Woodyard Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJJ Bush · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLKamauryn Morgan · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORTajh Overton · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TECayden Lee · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJabari Brady · SIGNEE ★3Devyon Hill-Lomax · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLLuke Work · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDJ Jones · SIGNEE ★4Braylon Ellison · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSOURI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.557 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.489 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.622 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3939943953 OF 5 GRADED
RB7272575686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE535380602011 OF 20 GRADED
OL666668391910 OF 19 GRADED
DL787871532117 OF 21 GRADED
LB74748478117 OF 11 GRADED
DB616183422116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE87th87
BLUE-CHIP RATIO36%85
RECRUITING CLASS#34 · 4/23 BC75
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 3 CYCLES22
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 30 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UGAKIRBY SMART11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
PACE
8080
PASS RATE
5252
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HAVOC
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIZELI DRINKWITZ7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
2323
EXPLOSIVENESS
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIZ OFFENSEUGA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
114OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
39
RET
39
NATIONAL
22OF 136
RET
62
FULL DEFENSEGEORGIA DEFENSE
MIZ QUARTERBACKSn=561% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTIN SIMMONSQBPORTAL · OLE MISS
484TH YR4898★4+33
NICK EVERSQBPORTAL · UCONN
434TH YR6145★3-54
MATT ZOLLERSQBRET
412ND YR4596★4-50
GAVIN SIDWARQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
BRETT BROWNQBRET
324TH YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4872%69%
LINEBACKERSLB
5467%76%
SECONDARYDB
6336%81%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
66
RET
39
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
43OF 138
LB RET
67
FRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE
MIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1961% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAYDEN GREENOLRET
724TH YR—100★4+9 2025
DOMINICK GIUDICEOLRET
684TH YR—78★3+43 2025
JOSH ATKINSOLPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
604TH YR—78★3-31 2025
CURTIS PEAGLEROLRET
584TH YR—45★3+19 2025
JACK LANGEOLRET
522ND YR—95★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH GRIFFINDLRET
772ND YR—100★5-13 2025
JORDAN HALLDLRET
604TH YR6599★5-26
CHRIS COLELBRET
593RD YR7499★5+6 2025
JOSH HORTONDTRET
564TH YR5378★3+13
LONDON SEYMOURDLRET
522ND YR962★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 138
TAL
57
PERF
72
RET
56
DL
79OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
43OF 138
LB RET
67
FRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE
MIZ RUNNING BACKSn=844% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMAL ROBERTSRBRET
784TH YR8178★3+25
PRESTON HATFIELDRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3—
ANTHONY FAVROWRBRET
504TH YR1—UNR—
XAI'SHAUN EDWARDSRBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
503RD YR—28★3—
MALAE FONOTIRBPORTAL · MONTANA
493RD YR—28★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554872%69%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455467%76%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSOURI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
51OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
53
RET
60
DB
17OF 138
DB RET
36
SECONDARYGEORGIA DEFENSE
MIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAYDEN LEEWRPORTAL · OLE MISS
584TH YR9892★4+23
SHAUN TERRY IIWRRET
522ND YR389★4—
DONOVAN OLUGBODEWRRET
522ND YR—96★4+21
DAMARION FOWLKESWRRET
512ND YR182★3—
BRETT NORFLEETTERET
504TH YR9191★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KJ BOLDENDBRET
723RD YR95100★5+54
KYRON JONESDBRET
584TH YR5499★5+12
ZION BRANCHSRET
544TH YR7778★3-1
JA'MARLEY RIDDLESPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
533RD YR—78★3+8 2025
BRAYLON CONLEYDBPORTAL · USC
513RD YR5264★3-37
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.4
57.5
— OFFENSE
45.6
69.4
— DEFENSE
43.3
45.5
SP+ OVERALL
15.1
29.3
FPI
12.3
26.6
ELO
1691
1948
TALENT
808
1004
PRODUCTION
87
98
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.36
0.77
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
OFF EFFICIENCY
75
87
DEF EFFICIENCY
95
73
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
44
10
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
89
FINISHING DRIVES
68
97
FIELD POSITION
74
46
TURNOVER MARGIN
36
67
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
PASS RATE
43.8%
50.0%
PACE
25.0s
31.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.7%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.2%
50.0%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
58.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIZ, ORANGE = UGA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE