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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›FLA @ UK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA
KENTUCKY
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KROGER FIELDCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
16FPI
FLASECFLORIDA
3-0
93
67
83
69%
64
72
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
36FPI
UKSECKENTUCKY
2-1
84
65
76
19%
12
89
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FLA71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
56
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE56p
56
TEMPO64p
64
UK28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
36
PROE
36
TEMPO
12
EXPLOSIVE36p
36
PROE36p
36
TEMPO12p
12
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FLARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.4
FLORIDA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UKRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.4
KENTUCKY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDAKENTUCKY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%DJ LagwayPORTAL · BAYLOR · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE73%Hayden HansenPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ. Michael SturdivantWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTony LivingstonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL58%Austin BarberDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake SlaughterDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamieon George Jr.OL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Tyreak SappEDGE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge Gumbs Jr.DRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichai BoireauPORTAL · OLE MISS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB46%Jordan CastellPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin MooreDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSharif DensonPORTAL · OLE MISS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB17%Ja'Kobi JacksonPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKD DanielsPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB2%Grayson HowardPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAaron Philo · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHWill Griffin · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEEric Singleton Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNMicah Mays Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTLuke Harpring · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTJ Shanahan Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETyler Chukuyem · SIGNEE ★4G'Nivre Carr · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLEmmanuel Oyebadejo · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEKJ Ford · SIGNEE ★4JaReylan McCoy · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBCJ Bronaugh · SIGNEE ★4Dylan Purter · SIGNEE ★4Kaiden Hall · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBLondon Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAEvan Pryor · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIINTACT
LBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.986 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.244 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
63.295 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5757902352 OF 5 GRADED
RB8080888386 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626287552212 OF 22 GRADED
OL717180462010 OF 20 GRADED
DL60608288158 OF 15 GRADED
LB59599198158 OF 15 GRADED
DB646479612314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO63%96
RECRUITING CLASS#17 · 13/19 BC88
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 27 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UKWILL STEINFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FLAJON SUMRALLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
4545
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFLA OFFENSEUK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
57
RET
23
NATIONAL
38OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSEKENTUCKY DEFENSE
FLA QUARTERBACKSn=577% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AARON PHILOQBPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
553RD YR5189★3+36
TRAMELL JONES JR.QBRET
482ND YR3891★4-11
AARON WILLIAMSQBRET
473RD YR—93★4—
AIDAN WARNERQBRET
444TH YR—30★3-54 2024
WILL GRIFFINQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS47% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6765%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
6362%38%
SECONDARYDB
5743%32%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
71
RET
46
DL
14OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
20OF 138
LB RET
62
FRONT-7KENTUCKY DEFENSE
FLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2054% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE LOVETTOLRET
614TH YR—77★3+5 2025
KNIJEAH HARRISOLRET
504TH YR—84★3+12 2025
TJ SHANAHAN JR.OLPORTAL · PENN STATE
504TH YR—78★3-4 2025
HARRISON MOOREOLPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
503RD YR—78★3-19 2025
TJ DICE JR.OLRET
502ND YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK FRONT-7n=23 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAVION GADSONDLRET
904TH YR—79★3+27 2025
ALEX AFARI JR.LBRET
634TH YR——★4+15 2025
MI'QUISE HUMPHREY-GRACEDLRET
614TH YR7397★4+8
AHMAD BREAUXDTPORTAL · LSU
563RD YR7645★3-36
ELIJAH BARNESLBPORTAL · TEXAS
522ND YR3292★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
80
RET
83
DL
14OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
20OF 138
LB RET
62
FRONT-7KENTUCKY DEFENSE
FLA RUNNING BACKSn=817% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADAN BAUGHRBRET
733RD YR9887★4+9
EVAN PRYORRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
534TH YR—78★3+29 2025
DUKE CLARKRBRET
522ND YR3689★4+28
BYRON LOUISRBRET
522ND YR1693★4—
LONDON MONTGOMERYRBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
514TH YR8889★3-6
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 23 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556765%20%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456362%38%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
62
RET
55
DB
44OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYKENTUCKY DEFENSE
FLA PASS CATCHERSn=2245% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LACOTA DIPPRETEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
664TH YR—78★3+17 2025
DALLAS WILSONWRRET
572ND YR4499★4+15
LUKE HARPRINGTEPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
543RD YR4985★3+33
MICAH JONESTERET
522ND YR—78★3—
AMIR JACKSONTERET
523RD YR3585★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UK SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY BRYANTDBRET
884TH YR9659★3+24
AARON GATESDBPORTAL · FLORIDA
734TH YR—64★3+18 2025
JORDAN CASTELLDBPORTAL · FLORIDA
574TH YR10078★3+13
KEVIS THOMASDBRET
544TH YR—64★3-36 2025
ISAIAH MCMILLIANDBTRUE FR
521ST YR—81★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.5
49.9
— OFFENSE
62.7
67.6
— DEFENSE
42.5
32.3
SP+ OVERALL
19.4
6.2
FPI
16.4
8.4
ELO
1668
1506
TALENT
891
787
PRODUCTION
86
66
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.63
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UK
OFF EFFICIENCY
55
57
DEF EFFICIENCY
33
29
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
7
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
51
61
FINISHING DRIVES
71
45
FIELD POSITION
78
39
TURNOVER MARGIN
33
32
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UK
PASS RATE
40.6%
45.9%
PACE
26.7s
31.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.9%
58.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.1%
58.1%
PLAYS / GAME
67.3
57.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
8.9%
2.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FLA, ORANGE = UK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE