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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›TEX @ LSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEXAS
LSU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#4AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
2-0
99
62
81
72%
84
77
0.0
—
—
HOME
#8AP
9FPI
LSUSECLSU
2-0
95
44
93
21%
99
72
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TEX74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
63
PROE
74
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE63p
63
PROE74p
74
TEMPO84p
84
LSU85CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
90
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE90p
90
TEMPO99p
99
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
LSU won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXASLSU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB89%Anthony Hill Jr.DRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey MooreDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLiona LefauPORTAL · COLORADO · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB89%Quintrevion WisnerPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BaxterPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian ClarkPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE59%Jack EndriesDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker LivingstonePORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre Moore Jr.PORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%Michael TaaffeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik MuhammadDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon GuilbeauDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL34%DJ CampbellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor StrohOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick BrooksOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL19%Cole BrevardDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis ShawDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Matthew CaldwellQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRasheem Biles · PORTAL ★4 · PITTSBURGHTyler Atkinson · SIGNEE ★5Rocky Cummings · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBHollywood Smothers · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATERaleek Brown · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONA STATEDerrek Cooper · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TECam Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · AUBURNSterling Berkhalter · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTKohen Brown · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBBo Mascoe · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSJohn Meredith III · SIGNEE ★5Samari Matthews · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLMelvin Siani · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTJohn Turntine III · SIGNEE ★4Nicolas Robertson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLIan Geffrard · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASRichard Wesley · SIGNEE ★5Jamarion Carlton · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBDia Bell · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.280 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.361 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.581 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666610010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454971686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE707089722111 OF 21 GRADED
OL616184541912 OF 19 GRADED
DL626294831916 OF 19 GRADED
LB73738326118 OF 11 GRADED
DB646494822110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO61%94
RECRUITING CLASS#7 · 17/26 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
9797
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5656
EXPLOSIVENESS
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HAVOC
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEX OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
66
RET
100
NATIONAL
11OF 136
RET
46
FULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE
TEX QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ARCH MANNINGQBRET
813RD YR82100★5+17 2025
KARLE LACEY JR.QBRET
471ST YR—94★4—
DIA BELLQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—99★5—
MJ MORRISQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
464TH YR—45★3-27 2025
LUKE DUNHAMQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6525%79%
LINEBACKERSLB
6671%82%
SECONDARYDB
7274%45%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
61
RET
54
DL
19OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
16OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7LSU DEFENSE
TEX OFFENSIVE LINEn=1946% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVOR GOOSBYOLRET
883RD YR—85★4+14 2025
MELVIN SIANIOLPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
874TH YR9298★4+1
BRANDON BAKEROLRET
833RD YR—99★5+20 2025
LAURENCE SEYMORE IIIOLPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
644TH YR—78★3+43 2025
PARIS PATTERSONOLPORTAL · SMU
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WHIT WEEKSLBRET
704TH YR9694★4+32
STEPHIYLAN GREENDTPORTAL · CLEMSON
553RD YR7795★4-30
DYLAN CARPENTERDERET
553RD YR5080★3—
TJ DOTTERYLBPORTAL · OLE MISS
544TH YR9895★4+27
DAVHON KEYSLBRET
543RD YR8686★4-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
54
RET
16
DL
19OF 138
DL RET
25
LB
16OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7LSU DEFENSE
TEX RUNNING BACKSn=884% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RALEEK BROWNRBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
724TH YR9097★4+18
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRBPORTAL · NC STATE
713RD YR9399★4+22
MICHAEL TERRY IIIRBRET
511ST YR1198★4—
JAMES SIMONRBRET
491ST YR4293★4-35
RYAN NIBLETTRBRET
493RD YR3098★4-9
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556525%79%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456671%82%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
70
RET
72
DB
4OF 138
DB RET
74
SECONDARYLSU DEFENSE
TEX PASS CATCHERSn=2128% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMMETT MOSLEY VWRRET
613RD YR8985★3+25
RYAN WINGOWRRET
553RD YR9599★4+17
CAM COLEMANWRPORTAL · AUBURN
553RD YR97100★5-7
SPENCER SHANNONTERET
533RD YR2174★3—
EMAREE WINSTONTERET
522ND YR1480★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DASHAWN SPEARSSRET
703RD YR7096★4+47
DJ PICKETTCBRET
692ND YR73100★5+17
PJ WOODLANDCBRET
553RD YR8583★3-16
TY BENEFIELDSPORTAL · BOISE STATE
534TH YR10099★4+5
JHASE THOMASSRET
501ST YR287★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.6
60.6
— OFFENSE
54.6
64.9
— DEFENSE
38.6
56.2
SP+ OVERALL
25.0
24.1
FPI
30.1
22.6
ELO
1916
1794
TALENT
985
932
PRODUCTION
96
93
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
+3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.61
0.70
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
31
25
DEF EFFICIENCY
69
75
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
91
45
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
50
FINISHING DRIVES
28
13
FIELD POSITION
15
38
TURNOVER MARGIN
73
92
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
PASS RATE
49.3%
44.0%
PACE
25.0s
20.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.6%
61.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.9%
58.3%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
87.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.8%
4.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEX, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE