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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›ALA @ VAN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ALABAMA
VANDERBILT
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|FIRSTBANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#10AP
7FPI
ALASECALABAMA
3-0
98
77
85
26%
77
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
43FPI
VANSECVANDERBILT
3-0
70
100
44
35%
28
98
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ALA71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
40
PROE
94
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE40p
40
PROE94p
94
TEMPO77p
77
VAN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
41
PROE
80
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE41p
41
PROE80p
80
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERALABAMAVANDERBILT2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%Ty SimpsonDRAFTED · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL85%Kadyn ProctorDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker BrailsfordDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWilkin FormbyOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL73%LT OvertonDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames SmithPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim Keenan IIIDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB64%Deontae LawsonLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin JeffersonDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNikhai Hill-GreenLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%Josh CuevasDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGermie BernardDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah HortonPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Jam MillerDRAFTED · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard YoungPORTAL · COLORADO · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB19%Domani JacksonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaShawn JonesDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJett Thomalla · SIGNEE ★4Tayden-Evan Kaawa · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLNick Brooks · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASTy Haywood · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANJared Graham · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLDevan Thompkins · PORTAL ★4 · USCTerrance Green · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONDesmond Umeozulu · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBXavier Griffin · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
WR/TENoah Rogers · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATECederian Morgan · SIGNEE ★4Mack Sutter · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBEJ Crowell · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
DBJorden Edmonds · SIGNEE ★5Jireh Edwards · SIGNEE ★5Zyan Gibson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.461 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.027 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.280 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676710010062 OF 6 GRADED
RB49498847105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE686886842711 OF 27 GRADED
OL757589572111 OF 21 GRADED
DL64648746158 OF 15 GRADED
LB656587601711 OF 17 GRADED
DB686893902111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE98th98
BLUE-CHIP RATIO63%95
RECRUITING CLASS#2 · 15/26 BC99
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 17 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VANCLARK LEA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
1010
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ALAKALEN DEBOER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESALA OFFENSEVAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
67
RET
100
NATIONAL
66OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSEVANDERBILT DEFENSE
ALA QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEELON RUSSELLQBRET
522ND YR41100★5—
AUSTIN MACKQBRET
494TH YR3797★4+31
JETT THOMALLAQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—98★4—
JOHN GAZZANIGAQBRET
372ND YR—44★3—
TAYDEN-EVAN KAAWAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—80★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5860%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
58100%9%
SECONDARYDB
5875%30%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
75
RET
57
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
60
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE
ALA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2143% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RACIN DELGATTYOLPORTAL · CAL POLY
524TH YR—78★3—
MICHAEL CARROLLOLRET
902ND YR—99★5+32 2025
JAYVIN JAMESOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
604TH YR—85★3-14 2025
JACKSON LLOYDOLRET
522ND YR—98★4—
KADEN STRAYHORNOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN
522ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLON STONEDLRET
754TH YR—85★3-4 2025
TALAN CARTERDLPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
672ND YR—45★3-14 2025
GLENN SEABROOKS IIIDLRET
563RD YR7750★3-40
BRYAN LONGWELLLBRET
544TH YR9650★3+23
MILES CAPERSEDGERET
514TH YR9539★3+38
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
49
RET
47
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
60
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE
ALA RUNNING BACKSn=1053% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EJ CROWELLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR18100★5—
DANIEL HILLRBRET
503RD YR6594★4-21
KHALIFA KEITHRBPORTAL · APP STATE
504TH YR4545★3-15
TRAE'SHAWN BROWNRBTRUE FR
491ST YR1879★3—
KEVIN RILEYRBRET
453RD YR5797★4+35
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555860%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4558100%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEALABAMA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
86
PERF
68
RET
84
DB
33OF 138
DB RET
75
SECONDARYVANDERBILT DEFENSE
ALA PASS CATCHERSn=2716% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LOTZEIR BROOKSWRRET
572ND YR6793★4+13
RYAN COLEMAN-WILLIAMSWRRET
553RD YR96100★5+9
MARSHALL PRITCHETTTERET
552ND YR—90★4—
DANNY LEWISTERET
524TH YR3477★3—
CEDERIAN MORGANWRTRUE FR
511ST YR—99★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ HEARDSRET
873RD YR9645★3+41
MARTEL HIGHTCBRET
514TH YR9786★4-39
CAYDEN DANIELSCBRET
502ND YR3670★3—
CARSON LAWRENCESRET
492ND YR—88★4—
MASON LEWISSTRUE FR
481ST YR—79★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.1
47.7
— OFFENSE
58.7
56.3
— DEFENSE
47.6
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
21.2
10.1
FPI
22.5
6.1
ELO
1863
1742
TALENT
974
727
PRODUCTION
91
79
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
−17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.63
0.21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
OFF EFFICIENCY
60
97
DEF EFFICIENCY
84
47
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
65
97
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
52
23
FINISHING DRIVES
78
100
FIELD POSITION
30
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
97
45
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
PASS RATE
42.8%
50.0%
PACE
26.0s
29.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.7%
56.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.4%
65.4%
PLAYS / GAME
69.3
61.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.4%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ALA, ORANGE = VAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE