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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›BC @ ND›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BOSTON COLLEGE
NOTRE DAME
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP47|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
91FPI
BCACCBOSTON COLLEGE
2-1
49
59
35
16%
31
79
0.0
—
—
HOME
#3AP
4FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
3-0
96
87
88
51%
41
67
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
92
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE92p
92
TEMPO31p
31
ND36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
47
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE47p
47
TEMPO41p
41
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGENOTRE DAME2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Dylan LonerganPORTAL · RUTGERS · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson JamesQB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaker ReisigQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB92%Turbo RichardPORTAL · INDIANA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan McDonaldRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB81%Owen McGowanLB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce SteelePORTAL · TROY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason Hewlett Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Logan TaylorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin ClineOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEryx DaughertyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Jeremiah FranklinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLewis BondDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReed HarrisPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Sedarius McConnellDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdwin KolengePORTAL · VANDERBILT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuintayvious HutchinsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB24%Omar ThorntonPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrayson Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASFemi Babalola · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSedric Addison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKris Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIASteve Klein · SIGNEE ★3Mekhi Volcy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrevon Humphrey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALKristian Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMarcelino Antunes Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEReed Swanson · PORTAL ★3 · COLGATELandon Wright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEKelvin Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKJ Sampson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEMason Leak · SIGNEE ★4Demeterius Thompson · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBChandler Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEJordan Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★3DJ Biggins · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.465 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.831 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.986 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363645061 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949485782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE515159662411 OF 24 GRADED
OL47475952198 OF 19 GRADED
DL393957452312 OF 23 GRADED
LB24243020114 OF 11 GRADED
DB494959942513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 1/24 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
6565
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
121OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
36
RET
0
NATIONAL
5OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE
BC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON MCKENZIEQBPORTAL · SAGINAW VALLEY STATE
493RD YR3945★3-39
GRAYSON WILSONQBPORTAL · ARKANSAS
371ST YR—64★3—
FEMI BABALOLAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—73★3—
ANTHONY COELLNERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
ENZO ARJONAQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7059%50%
LINEBACKERSLB
62100%55%
SECONDARYDB
6376%61%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
47
RET
52
DL
12OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1948% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUDAH PRUITTOLRET
492ND YR—60★3—
OWEN SNIVELYOLPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
574TH YR—45★3-11 2025
MICHAEL CROUNSEOLRET
563RD YR—56★3+33 2025
KRISTIAN PHILLIPSOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
554TH YR—64★3+44 2025
JANI NORWOODOLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
502ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BOUBACAR TRAOREDLRET
863RD YR7892★4+35
FRANCIS BREWUDLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
793RD YR8299★4+10
JASON ONYEDLRET
664TH YR7874★3+19
ELIJAH HUGHESDLRET
554TH YR—28★3-2 2025
BRYCE YOUNGDLRET
543RD YR8197★4+30
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
83OF 138
TAL
48
PERF
49
RET
57
DL
12OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
BC RUNNING BACKSn=843% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN DICKENSRBPORTAL · LIBERTY
713RD YR9145★3+14
BO MACCORMACK IIIRBRET
482ND YR3550★3-42
MEKHI DODDRBRET
471ST YR—65★3—
NOLAN RAYRBPORTAL · MARYLAND
443RD YR—45★3-22 2025
ANTHONY FERRUCCIRBRET
503RD YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557059%50%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4562100%55%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
66OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
51
RET
66
DB
16OF 138
DB RET
76
SECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE
BC PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NEDRICK BOLDIN JR.WRRET
511ST YR—62★3—
BRADY CLOUGHTERET
512ND YR3—UNR—
ZEKE MOORETERET
504TH YR6432★3-42
REED SWANSONWRPORTAL · COLGATE
493RD YR—78★3—
JACKSON WADEWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
483RD YR1645★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADON SHULERSRET
843RD YR9888★4+17
BRAUNTAE JOHNSONSRET
822ND YR7792★4+55
LEONARD MOORECBRET
643RD YR9686★4+3
LUKE TALICHSRET
584TH YR6071★3+39
DJ MCKINNEYCBPORTAL · COLORADO
574TH YR—95★4-9 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
37.3
50.5
— OFFENSE
44.6
47.5
— DEFENSE
30.0
53.5
SP+ OVERALL
-3.3
29.0
FPI
-5.8
26.8
ELO
1379
2061
TALENT
660
953
PRODUCTION
41
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+17
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.69
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
OFF EFFICIENCY
56
83
DEF EFFICIENCY
34
90
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
100
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
9
54
FINISHING DRIVES
17
87
FIELD POSITION
81
7
TURNOVER MARGIN
18
98
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
PASS RATE
46.0%
45.6%
PACE
28.9s
28.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.1%
57.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.7%
55.8%
PLAYS / GAME
62.3
63.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE