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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›CAL @ UVA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CALIFORNIA
VIRGINIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
75FPI
CALACCCALIFORNIA
1-1
77
43
66
58%
87
51
0.0
—
—
HOME
#25AP
25FPI
UVAACCVIRGINIA
2-0
62
50
73
10%
46
71
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CAL85CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
71
PROE
96
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE71p
71
PROE96p
96
TEMPO87p
87
UVA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
67
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE67p
67
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.6
VIRGINIA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCALIFORNIAVIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Kendrick RaphaelPORTAL · SMU · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLJ Johnson Jr.RB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon High Jr.PORTAL · UTSA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL75%TJ Bush Jr.PORTAL · MINNESOTA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAidan KeanaainaDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. BollersDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Luke FerrelliPORTAL · OLE MISS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade UluavePORTAL · BYU · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris VictorLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%Jacob De JesusWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrond GrizzellWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeffrey JohnsonTE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Hezekiah MassesDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrent AustinDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDru Polidore Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL50%Jordan Spasojevic-MokoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeon BellOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden MillerOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Devin BrownPORTAL · WEBER STATE · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAdam Mohammed · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONVictor Santino · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJericho Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONJustin Beadles · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLESolomon Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJD McKinley · SIGNEE ★3Jaxon Pyatt · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEChase Hendricks · PORTAL ★4 · OHIOIan Strong · PORTAL ★4 · RUTGERSDorian Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · NEW MEXICO4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKingston Lopa · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONRicky Fletcher · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSDaniel Harris · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLKahlee Tafai · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTADaniel McMorris · SIGNEE ★4Kamo'i Huihui-White · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNainoa Lopes · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CALIFORNIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.659 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.680 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.038 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959928862 OF 6 GRADED
RB525290174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE56567639217 OF 21 GRADED
OL52526072207 OF 20 GRADED
DL31317525156 OF 15 GRADED
LB35356033168 OF 16 GRADED
DB525270351910 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO25%75
RECRUITING CLASS#56 · 2/18 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 32 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
6969
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HAVOC
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCAL OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
59
RET
88
NATIONAL
21OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE
CAL QUARTERBACKSn=612% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARON-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEQBRET
572ND YR8298★4-3
JACKSON BROUSSEAUQBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
463RD YR6445★3-8
EJ CAMINONGQBRET
472ND YR—45★3—
ALONZO ESPARZAQBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
NAINOA LOPESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6249%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
4594%0%
SECONDARYDB
5231%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
73OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
52
RET
72
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
CAL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2028% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BASTIAN SWINNEYOLRET
544TH YR—75★3+33 2025
KAHLEE TAFAIOLPORTAL · MINNESOTA
543RD YR—78★3-32 2025
TYSON RUFFINSOLRET
523RD YR—28★3+31 2025
JIMOTHY LEWIS JR.OLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
472ND YR—64★3—
SIOAPE VATIKANIOLRET
474TH YR—75★3-2 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FISHER CAMACDERET
854TH YR9364★3+11
KAM ROBINSONLBRET
704TH YR—83★3-3 2025
JASON HAMMONDDTRET
664TH YR7956★3-8
ANTHONY BRITTONDTRET
614TH YR8248★3-12
NNANNA ANYANWUDEPORTAL · UTSA
614TH YR5978★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
52
RET
1
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
CAL RUNNING BACKSn=799% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADAM MOHAMMEDRBPORTAL · WASHINGTON
593RD YR8097★4-3
ANTHONY LEAGUERBRET
491ST YR2680★3-59
ASHTEN EMORYRBPORTAL · UTEP
492ND YR7245★3-22
CARTER VARGASRBPORTAL · UC DAVIS
472ND YR1164★3—
VICTOR SANTINORBTRUE FR
351ST YR—83★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556249%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454594%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECALIFORNIA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
56
RET
39
DB
63OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE
CAL PASS CATCHERSn=2161% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHASE HENDRICKSWRPORTAL · OHIO
774TH YR9998★4+17
IAN STRONGWRPORTAL · RUTGERS
694TH YR9897★4+20
MASON MINITERET
613RD YR7045★3+12 2025
TAIMANE PURCELLTETRUE FR
501ST YR—88★4—
JORDAN KINGWRRET
494TH YR68—UNR-11
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLEN JONESSPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
774TH YR7964★3-3
JACOBIE HENDERSONCBPORTAL · RUTGERS
674TH YR9964★3-18
JALEN MCNAIRSPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9745★3+20
OMILLIO AGARDCBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
583RD YR6164★3-32
CHRISTIAN ELLISSPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
564TH YR9964★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.2
43.1
— OFFENSE
53.7
48.2
— DEFENSE
34.8
38.0
SP+ OVERALL
-0.6
12.7
FPI
-1.5
12.6
ELO
1350
1652
TALENT
752
700
PRODUCTION
57
74
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−18
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.25
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
OFF EFFICIENCY
35
41
DEF EFFICIENCY
43
87
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
53
67
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
78
69
FINISHING DRIVES
54
51
FIELD POSITION
89
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
35
90
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
PASS RATE
55.9%
28.5%
PACE
24.8s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.2%
73.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
79.6%
37.0%
PLAYS / GAME
72.5
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CAL, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE