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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›DUKE @ MIA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
DUKE
MIAMI
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|HARD ROCK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
35FPI
DUKEACCDUKE
3-0
50
86
15
17%
59
57
0.0
—
—
HOME
#5AP
6FPI
MIAACCMIAMI
3-0
92
79
91
37%
75
54
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
DUKE70CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
68
PROE
82
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE68p
68
PROE82p
82
TEMPO59p
59
MIA72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
75
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE75p
75
TEMPO75p
75
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
DUKERECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+15.3
DUKE won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIARECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+40.7
MIAMI won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERDUKEMIAMI2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Darian MensahPORTAL · MIAMI · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE68%Cooper BarkatePORTAL · MIAMI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSahmir HagansWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQue'Sean BrownPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL64%Wesley WilliamsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron HallDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVincent Anthony Jr.DE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Justin PickettOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBruno FinaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian Parker IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB48%Chandler RiversDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WeaverS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMa'Khi JonesPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Jaiden FrancoisLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre FreemanLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB47%Anderson CastleRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaquez MooreRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBWalker Eget · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEAri Patu · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMATerry Walker III · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJaven Nicholas · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEJared Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · PENNSYLVANIAJonah Burton · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLObinna Umeh · SIGNEE ★4Chadwicke Cannon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Ayden Cain · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBraden Miller · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIASean Stover · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDylan Flowers · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYChe Ojarikre · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDEvan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBColsen Gatten · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBWilhelm Daal II · PORTAL ★3 · YALECJ Givers · SIGNEE ★3Jayvian Tanelus · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · DUKE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.969 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.971 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.361 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595965062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656727872 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5151632020CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL565658017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL666669901710 OF 17 GRADED
LB535369100115 OF 11 GRADED
DB48486434187 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%40
RECRUITING CLASS#71 · 2/15 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 19 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
PACE
8080
PASS RATE
6969
EXPLOSIVENESS
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HAVOC
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
DUKEMANNY DIAZ3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
PACE
5959
PASS RATE
5050
EXPLOSIVENESS
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESDUKE OFFENSEMIA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
59
RET
0
NATIONAL
13OF 136
RET
76
FULL DEFENSEMIAMI DEFENSE
DUKE QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WALKER EGETQBPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
624TH YR9064★3+4
DAN MAHANQBRET
401ST YR175★3—
ARI PATUQBPORTAL · NORTH ALABAMA
504TH YR—45★3-37 2023
BLAINE HIPAQBPORTAL · PRINCETON
374TH YR—45★3—
TERRY WALKER IIIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—81★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8172%67%
LINEBACKERSLB
62100%20%
SECONDARYDB
7270%50%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
56
RET
0
DL
3OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
23OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE
DUKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NICK DEL GRANDEOLPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
824TH YR—45★3-25 2025
GEMYEL ALLENOLRET
522ND YR—73★3—
MATT CRAYCRAFTOLRET
504TH YR—56★3+36 2025
CALEB DORRISOLRET
503RD YR—45★3—
JORDAN LARSENOLRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS17% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARQUISE LIGHTFOOTDLRET
803RD YR6799★5+42
AHMAD MOTEN SR.DLRET
784TH YR9279★3+3
KEONA DAVISDLPORTAL · NEBRASKA
683RD YR7798★4-7
JUSTIN SCOTTDLRET
613RD YR83100★5-24
ARMONDO BLOUNTDLRET
583RD YR7599★5+2
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
50OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
56
RET
78
DL
3OF 138
DL RET
72
LB
23OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE
DUKE RUNNING BACKSn=722% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATE SHEPPARDRBRET
752ND YR9185★4+16
CJ CAMPBELL JR.RBPORTAL · RUTGERS
634TH YR8928★3+28
JAYVIAN TANELUSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—69★3—
WILHELM DAAL IIRBPORTAL · YALE
374TH YR—64★3—
CJ GIVERSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—82★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558172%67%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4562100%20%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEDUKE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
51
RET
20
DB
2OF 138
DB RET
70
SECONDARYMIAMI DEFENSE
DUKE PASS CATCHERSn=2080% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH HASLEYTERET
804TH YR8855★3+12
JAVEN NICHOLASWRPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
654TH YR8678★3+20
TONY BOGGSTERET
523RD YR—56★3—
JONAH BURTONWRPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
504TH YR5664★3+14
NATE KURISKYTEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
484TH YR8345★3-1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIA SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OMAR THORNTONDBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
763RD YR9297★4+25
ISAIAH TAYLORDBRET
654TH YR7745★3+27
JJ DUNNIGANDBTRUE FR
521ST YR3396★4—
ETHAN O'CONNORDBRET
503RD YR9797★4+1
CAMDIN PORTISDBTRUE FR
501ST YR1791★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.9
51.4
— OFFENSE
61.6
67.3
— DEFENSE
54.1
35.4
SP+ OVERALL
6.9
25.6
FPI
9.1
23.9
ELO
1656
1895
TALENT
668
886
PRODUCTION
65
98
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−15
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.55
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
OFF EFFICIENCY
24
97
DEF EFFICIENCY
50
76
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
68
65
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
95
81
FINISHING DRIVES
38
79
FIELD POSITION
32
64
TURNOVER MARGIN
50
35
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
PASS RATE
36.0%
46.9%
PACE
27.0s
26.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
69.3%
59.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
47.6%
68.1%
PLAYS / GAME
66.7
69.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
8.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = DUKE, ORANGE = MIA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE