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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›SYR @ NCSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SYRACUSE
NC STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CARTER-FINLEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
60FPI
SYRACCSYRACUSE
1-1
75
50
75
35%
98
69
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
58FPI
NCSUACCNC STATE
1-1
77
89
43
60%
28
61
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SYR71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
78
PROE
38
TEMPO
98
EXPLOSIVE78p
78
PROE38p
38
TEMPO98p
98
NCSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
73
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE73p
73
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SYRRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.8
SYRACUSE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSYRACUSENC STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Will NixonRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYasin WillisPORTAL · KANSAS · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HartPORTAL · UCONN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL81%David ReeseDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Jobity Jr.DL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion Wilson Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Dan VillariTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell Gill Jr.PORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohntay Cook IIPORTAL · OLE MISS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Da'Metrius WeatherspoonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ FergusonOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin CollinsOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB48%Rickie CollinsPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB35%Duce ChestnutDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin GrantDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBerry Buxton IIIDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Anwar SparrowLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Heard Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJu'Juan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · LSUShavane Anderson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDillan Fontus · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDKamron Wilson · SIGNEE ★4Jarius Rodgers · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMatt Outten · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEMichael Smith · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINACalvin Russell III · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLOluwafunto Akinshilo · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJaveion Cooper · SIGNEE ★3Joseph White · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBZaid Lott · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBTedarius Hughes · SIGNEE ★4Chase Geter · SIGNEE ★3Terrance Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBGemaus Sackie · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SYRACUSE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.566 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.147 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.775 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4848818673 OF 7 GRADED
RB4848637264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE5151612021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL4747471423CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL48486541157 OF 15 GRADED
LB53535954129 OF 12 GRADED
DB62626388229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE75th75
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 4/26 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SYRFRAN BROWN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
9090
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSYR OFFENSENCSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
89OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
48
RET
86
NATIONAL
53OF 136
RET
24
FULL DEFENSENC STATE DEFENSE
SYR QUARTERBACKSn=714% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARI ODOMQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
533RD YR6764★3+34
STEVE ANGELIQBRET
504TH YR6485★3+25
MALACHI NELSONQBPORTAL · UTEP
433RD YR6145★3-48 2025
JOSEPH FILARDIQBRET
422ND YR——UNR-53 2025
DANNY LAUTERQBPORTAL · GEORGETOWN
373RD YR—28★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4770%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4648%8%
SECONDARYDB
5067%22%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
47
RET
14
DL
82OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE
SYR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2386% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVION MACKOLRET
503RD YR—36★3-29 2025
NAQUIL BETRANDOLRET
553RD YR—64★3+2 2025
JOE CRUZOLRET
524TH YR—32★3+36 2025
JAYDEN MANNOLRET
521ST YR—66★3—
BYRON WASHINGTONOLRET
512ND YR—63★3-14 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZANE WILLIAMSLBRET
523RD YR—44★3—
COLBY CRONKDTRET
502ND YR1678★3—
HARVEY DYSON IIILBTRUE FR
484TH YR8964★3-7
KE'VON CARTERLBRET
482ND YR4366★3—
ISAIAH SHIRLEYDTRET
474TH YR7776★3-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
48
RET
72
DL
82OF 138
DL RET
70
LB
76OF 138
LB RET
48
FRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE
SYR RUNNING BACKSn=628% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLIK HILLRBRET
522ND YR3762★3+12
SHAVANE ANDERSON JR.RBTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3+37
MALACHI COLEMANRBRET
491ST YR2167★3-55
DAVION KERRRBRET
492ND YR1446★3—
JU'JUAN JOHNSONRBPORTAL · LSU
443RD YR—78★3-44 2025
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554770%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454648%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
51
RET
20
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
67
SECONDARYNC STATE DEFENSE
SYR PASS CATCHERSn=2180% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSWRRET
564TH YR——★3+27 2025
COLE WEAVERWRPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
553RD YR8664★3+6
DAVID CLEMENTTERET
514TH YR2650★3—
DAUNTE BACHEYIETERET
502ND YR2465★3—
NOAH MEYERSTEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
483RD YR8145★3+8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ASAAD BROWN JR.CBRET
733RD YR8181★3+22
KING MACKSPORTAL · PENN STATE
544TH YR8278★3+32
BRIAN NELSON IICBRET
514TH YR9785★3-30
TY WHITEDBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
483RD YR3545★3—
BRODY BARNHARDTSRET
483RD YR5473★3-21
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.7
42.3
— OFFENSE
53.1
47.4
— DEFENSE
48.3
37.2
SP+ OVERALL
1.7
8.0
FPI
1.2
2.4
ELO
1287
1509
TALENT
746
757
PRODUCTION
45
69
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
+6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
19
51
DEF EFFICIENCY
13
65
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
20
94
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
24
8
FINISHING DRIVES
25
96
FIELD POSITION
81
77
TURNOVER MARGIN
12
23
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
PASS RATE
55.6%
46.7%
PACE
22.2s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.3%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
72.7%
69.7%
PLAYS / GAME
81.0
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.9%
4.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SYR, ORANGE = NCSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE