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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›WAKE @ SMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WAKE FOREST
SMU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
52FPI
WAKEACCWAKE FOREST
2-0
55
24
98
14%
54
52
0.0
—
—
HOME
#17AP
24FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-0
78
76
71
57%
28
67
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WAKE59CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
75
PROE
49
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE75p
75
PROE49p
49
TEMPO54p
54
SMU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
93
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE93p
93
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WAKERECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
WAKE FOREST won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWAKE FORESTSMU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Robby AshfordQB · 80% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshawn PurdiePORTAL · LIBERTY · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL75%George SellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin SianiOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin KylanyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE72%Eni FalayiTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling BerkhalterPORTAL · TEXAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah Mays Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Demond ClaiborneDRAFTED · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaMario ClementsRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Nick AndersenDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaron PruntyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLardarius Webb Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB48%Dylan HazenLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy BryantLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL36%Jayden LovingDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNuer GatkuothDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMateen IbirogbaPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGio Lopez · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAGrant Lawless · SIGNEE ★4Gannon Jones · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLLangston Hogg · SIGNEE ★3Fletcher Turk · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Durbin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEWondame Davis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPLandon Morris · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIADominick Barry · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKyndall McCaleb · SIGNEE ★4Deuce Lawrence · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrian Blades ll · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALAJ Marks · SIGNEE ★3Mahamadou Siby · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMonroe Partin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLSefa Sackey · SIGNEE ★3Lucas Smalls-Allen · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Harrington · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WAKE FOREST
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.769 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.236 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.386 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161631052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151685084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626256442513 OF 25 GRADED
OL72725442219 OF 21 GRADED
DL686850881912 OF 19 GRADED
LB53535462106 OF 10 GRADED
DB585855672310 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%47
RECRUITING CLASS#39 · 3/31 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 24 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WAKEJAKE DICKERT2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
PACE
5050
PASS RATE
8787
EXPLOSIVENESS
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWAKE OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
43OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
61
RET
10
NATIONAL
16OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE
WAKE QUARTERBACKSn=590% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GIO LOPEZQBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
553RD YR8864★3+23
STEELE PIZZELLAQBRET
411ST YR1055★3—
GRANT LAWLESSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
GANNON JONESQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—64★3—
BILLY JOHNSONQBRET
323RD YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
6069%10%
SECONDARYDB
5043%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
72
RET
42
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
WAKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2158% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLINTON RICHARDOLRET
732ND YR—81★3+49 2025
RYAN BERGEROLPORTAL · OREGON STATE
683RD YR7264★3+41 2025
TOLU OLAJIDEOLPORTAL · NEW HAMPSHIRE
524TH YR4145★3—
JOHN OHNEGIANOLPORTAL · BUCKNELL
524TH YR1945★3—
JACK HINESOLRET
502ND YR5480★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALCOLM ALCORN-CROWDERDLPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
544TH YR6264★3+28
TREY WILSONDERET
514TH YR—78★3+21 2025
KEVIN ALLENDLRET
503RD YR—61★3-33 2025
BRANDON MIYAZONOLBRET
504TH YR—44★3-47 2025
XAVIER WRIGHTLBRET
492ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
71OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
51
RET
50
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
15
LB
29OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7SMU DEFENSE
WAKE RUNNING BACKSn=850% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TY CLARK IIIRBRET
653RD YR6361★3+0
DEUCE LAWRENCERBTRUE FR
501ST YR2778★3+29
JAMAR SEARCYRBRET
501ST YR1854★3—
KD DANIELSRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
482ND YR4664★3-13
KALIL TOWNESRBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554415%5%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456069%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWAKE FOREST OFFENSE
NATIONAL
26OF 138
TAL
56
PERF
62
RET
44
DB
79OF 138
DB RET
43
SECONDARYSMU DEFENSE
WAKE PASS CATCHERSn=2556% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LANDON MORRISTEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
574TH YR6278★3+38
CARLOS HERNANDEZWRRET
554TH YR9578★3+20
KAMREAN JOHNSONTERET
554TH YR5864★3+14
MATTHEW LUSARDITERET
524TH YR——UNR—
KAM SHANKSWRPORTAL · ARKANSAS
503RD YR8845★3+7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JARVIS LEESPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
864TH YR—45★3-1 2025
JAYVON THOMASCBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
544TH YR—64★3-37 2025
LA'MODRICK SPENCERSRET
534TH YR—54★3—
MARCELLUS BARNES JR.CBRET
523RD YR—89★3-2 2025
JAVION HOLIDAYCBRET
502ND YR—75★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
50.6
61.2
— OFFENSE 2025
59.5
64.2
— DEFENSE 2025
41.7
58.1
SP+ OVERALL
3.4
15.3
FPI
4.1
13.8
ELO
1508
1734
TALENT
681
765
PRODUCTION
59
82
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−9
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
15
61
DEF EFFICIENCY
93
67
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
98
93
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
63
67
FINISHING DRIVES
21
85
FIELD POSITION
22
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
8
75
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
PASS RATE
48.1%
55.8%
PACE
27.1s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.6%
52.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.4%
80.7%
PLAYS / GAME
66.5
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WAKE, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE