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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›WASH @ MSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WASHINGTON
MICHIGAN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
47FPI
WASHB1GWASHINGTON
3-0
83
91
76
54%
54
99
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
56FPI
MSUB1GMICHIGAN STATE
2-1
56
64
49
21%
51
65
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WASH43CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
23
PROE
53
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE23p
23
PROE53p
53
TEMPO54p
54
MSU47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
68
TEMPO
51
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE68p
68
TEMPO51p
51
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONMICHIGAN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Jonah ColemanDRAFTED · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam MohammedPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL63%Ta'ita'i UiagaleleiDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach DurfeeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnterio ThompsonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Ephesians PrysockDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakell EsteenS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTacario DavisDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Denzel BostonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaiden Vines-BrightPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuentin MooreTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB32%Deven BryantPORTAL · USC · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL28%Carver WillisDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaki FinauOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB4%Kai HortonQB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJayden Limar · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONBrian Bonner Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Ansu Sanoe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDerek Colman-Brusa · SIGNEE ★4JD Hill · SIGNEE ★4Tufanua Ionatana Umu-Cais · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBEmmanuel Karnley · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIARahsjon Duncan · SIGNEE ★4Gavin Day · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Moss · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEJordan Clay · SIGNEE ★4Trez Davis · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRamzak Fruean · SIGNEE ★4Ezaya Tokio · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLKolt Dieterich · PORTAL ★4 · SAM HOUSTONKodi Greene · SIGNEE ★5Dominic Harris · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBDerek Zammit · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.284 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.590 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.264 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB757510010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB74746824103 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE5252744620CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL606084017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL484875281910 OF 19 GRADED
LB47476710074 OF 7 GRADED
DB68688562166 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE83rd83
BLUE-CHIP RATIO30%81
RECRUITING CLASS#13 · 11/27 BC91
CLASS RANK TREND+34 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 14 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
4848
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
75
RET
100
NATIONAL
72OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
WASH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.QBRET
833RD YR83100★4+30
ELIJAH BROWNQBPORTAL · STANFORD
442ND YR—45★3-26 2025
DEREK ZAMMITQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—83★3—
DASH BEIERLYQBRET
351ST YR—82★3—
TRESTON MCMILLANQBRET
351ST YR—78★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4475%22%
SECONDARYDB
6020%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
60
RET
0
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
84OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
WASH OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DREW AZZOPARDIOLRET
754TH YR—95★4-8 2025
JOHN MILLSOLRET
732ND YR—84★4+37 2025
LANDEN HATCHETTOLRET
554TH YR—84★4+26 2025
CHAMP TAULEALEAOLRET
521ST YR—88★4—
KODI GREENEOLTRUE FR
501ST YR—99★5—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS44% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DION CRAWFORDLBPORTAL · BUFFALO
644TH YR—45★3-8 2025
JORDAN HALLLBRET
624TH YR9794★4-1
KENNY SOARES JR.EDGEPORTAL · NC STATE
614TH YR9564★3+49
BEN ROBERTSDLRET
544TH YR6528★3-36
ANELU LAFAELEEDGERET
532ND YR3885★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
74
RET
24
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
84OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
WASH RUNNING BACKSn=1076% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN LIMARRBPORTAL · OREGON
524TH YR6378★3+31
QUAID CARRRBRET
501ST YR1163★3—
BRIAN BONNER JR.RBTRUE FR
471ST YR—97★4—
TREY COOLEYRBPORTAL · TROY
454TH YR7445★3+7
ANSU SANOERBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454475%22%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
52
RET
46
DB
27OF 138
DB RET
20
SECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
WASH PASS CATCHERSn=2054% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEZMEN ROEBUCKWRRET
562ND YR7866★3+7
KADE ELDRIDGETERET
553RD YR—64★3-43 2025
CHRIS LAWSONWRRET
522ND YR3487★4-45
BARON NAONETERET
512ND YR1678★3—
RASHID WILLIAMSWRRET
503RD YR5188★4+7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHARLES BRANTLEYCBPORTAL · MIAMI
664TH YR9678★3-15
KHALIL MAJEEDSRET
534TH YR56—UNR+13
DEVIN VAUGHTSPORTAL · MAINE
523RD YR1628★3—
TYRAN CHAPPELLCBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
522ND YR928★3—
TRE BELLCBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
504TH YR7978★3-4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
56.3
46.4
— OFFENSE
62.1
47.1
— DEFENSE
50.5
45.6
SP+ OVERALL
11.1
3.5
FPI
5.8
4.3
ELO
1752
1537
TALENT
778
685
PRODUCTION
88
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.30
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
93
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
79
19
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
65
80
FINISHING DRIVES
92
35
FIELD POSITION
55
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
61
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
PASS RATE
57.9%
43.4%
PACE
27.4s
27.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.1%
64.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.0%
66.0%
PLAYS / GAME
65.7
65.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE