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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›MICH @ ORE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MICHIGAN
OREGON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
22FPI
MICHB1GMICHIGAN
2-0
93
81
69
69%
2
92
0.0
—
—
HOME
#6AP
13FPI
OREB1GOREGON
1-1
99
90
94
75%
35
63
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MICH31CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
21
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE21p
21
TEMPO2p
2
ORE65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
62
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE62p
62
TEMPO35p
35
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MICHRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.9
MICHIGAN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGANOREGON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB83%Jimmy RolderDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONErnest HausmannLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaishawn BarhamDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL58%Rayshaun BennyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick MooreDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ GuyEDGE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE54%Donaven McCulleyWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlin KleinDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax BredesonDRAFTED · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%TJ MetcalfPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandyn HillmanPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden ManghamPORTAL · PURDUE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%Justice HaynesPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL33%Greg CrippenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni El-HadiOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Jadyn DavisPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAden Reeder · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJohn Henry Daley · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHCarter Meadows · SIGNEE ★5Titan Davis · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJJ Buchanan · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHTravis Johnson · SIGNEE ★4Mason Bonner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSmith Snowden · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHSalesi Moa · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHJamarion Vincent · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTaylor Tatum · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMASavion Hiter · SIGNEE ★5Jonathan Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLMalakai Lee · SIGNEE ★4Marky Walbridge · SIGNEE ★4Ace Hamilton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBTommy Carr · SIGNEE ★4Brady Smigiel · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.667 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.583 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.548 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB656510010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB7070947283 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE717192682210 OF 22 GRADED
OL67678498198 OF 19 GRADED
DL52528575199 OF 19 GRADED
LB61616917145 OF 14 GRADED
DB64647956218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%89
RECRUITING CLASS#12 · 13/24 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 16 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MICHKYLE WHITTINGHAMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
PACE
6060
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMICH OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
65
RET
100
NATIONAL
14OF 136
RET
33
FULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE
MICH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE UNDERWOODQBRET
612ND YR73100★5-12 2025
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIQBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
474TH YR—45★3-4 2025
BRADY SMIGIELQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
TOMMY CARRQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—89★4—
CHASE HERBSTREITQBRET
352ND YR—34★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
54100%37%
SECONDARYDB
6864%36%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
67
RET
99
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
44OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
MICH OFFENSIVE LINEn=192% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
NATHAN EFOBIOLRET
674TH YR—87★4+23 2025
JAKE GUARNERAOLRET
613RD YR—97★4+21 2025
ANDREW SPRAGUEOLRET
543RD YR—95★4+1 2025
ANDREW BABALOLAOLRET
502ND YR—99★5—
BLAKE FRAZIEROLRET
503RD YR—93★4-45 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS3% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR ALEXANDERDLRET
864TH YR9897★40
TEITUM TUIOTILBRET
774TH YR9881★3+5
D'ANTRE ROBINSONDLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
753RD YR7498★4-22
A'MAURI WASHINGTONDLRET
674TH YR9191★4-16
AYDIN BRELANDDLRET
542ND YR4098★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
70
RET
72
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
44OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
MICH RUNNING BACKSn=828% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN MARSHALLRBRET
893RD YR8497★4+15
BRYSON KUZDZALRBRET
514TH YR—6★2-9 2025
SAVION HITERRBTRUE FR
481ST YR14100★5—
MICAH KA'APANARBRET
523RD YR—81★3-49 2025
TOMAS O'MEARARBRET
523RD YR——UNR+35 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4554100%37%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
11OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
71
RET
68
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE
MICH PASS CATCHERSn=2232% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW MARSHWRRET
712ND YR7295★4+24
JALEN HOFFMANTERET
584TH YR17—UNR—
JJ BUCHANANWRPORTAL · UTAH
562ND YR7399★4+32
KENDRICK BELLWRRET
424TH YR—70★3-55 2025
HOGAN HANSENTERET
603RD YR—88★4-4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON FINNEY JR.DBRET
862ND YR8198★4-11
KOI PERICHDBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
773RD YR95100★4+16
NA'EEM OFFORDDBRET
552ND YR55100★5-19
PEYTON WOODYARDDBRET
533RD YR5489★3-33
DAVON BENJAMINDBTRUE FR
521ST YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.8
57.3
— OFFENSE
47.2
62.9
— DEFENSE
44.3
51.6
SP+ OVERALL
13.8
22.9
FPI
14.4
17.1
ELO
1702
1811
TALENT
890
984
PRODUCTION
90
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.53
0.62
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
OFF EFFICIENCY
76
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
49
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
6
86
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
58
FINISHING DRIVES
56
90
FIELD POSITION
18
18
TURNOVER MARGIN
73
88
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MICH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
PASS RATE
41.2%
59.7%
PACE
35.3s
29.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
66.7%
49.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.6%
76.7%
PLAYS / GAME
51.0
62.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MICH, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE