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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›FRES @ TXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FRESNO STATE
TEXAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 16:00 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
72FPI
FRESPACFRESNO STATE
1-1
37
17
64
38%
4
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
102FPI
TXSTPACTEXAS STATE
0-2
41
75
14
76%
79
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FRES36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
76
PROE
28
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE76p
76
PROE28p
28
TEMPO4p
4
TXST38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
14
PROE
20
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE14p
14
PROE20p
20
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFRESNO STATETEXAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%E.J. WarnerQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarson ConklinPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB57%Al'zillion HamiltonDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakari EmbryDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCamryn BrachaDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Richie Anderson IIIPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake TarwaterTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamron BeachemTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB50%Jadon PearsonLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim ThomasPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Jacob SpomerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulian PolendoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL35%Finn ClaypoolDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKorey ForemanDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius GandyDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB21%Elijah GilliamRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnathan ArceneauxRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKhristian Martin · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDDeagan Rose · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Chambers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBCroix Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAIsaiah Lucero · SIGNEE ★3Truly Bell III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEXavier Owens · SIGNEE ★3Franklin Lockard · SIGNEE ★3Bryce McDaniel · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaydon Sutko · SIGNEE ★3Zephaniah Sesay · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLOscar Weigel · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGOAlex Rivera · SIGNEE ★3Efren Siuloa · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMaverick Noonan · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAJake Plummer · SIGNEE ★3Solomon Baker · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBTariq Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLJhadis Luckey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FRESNO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.271 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.653 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.775 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB343445051 OF 5 GRADED
RB48483286105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE35352350269 OF 26 GRADED
OL46464440186 OF 18 GRADED
DL494932751911 OF 19 GRADED
LB494932100106 OF 10 GRADED
DB565643822314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%8
RECRUITING CLASS#70 · 0/22 BC48
CLASS RANK TREND+16 · 3 CYCLES82
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 13 IN / 10 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
9393
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FRESMATT ENTZ2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
3737
PASS RATE
3030
EXPLOSIVENESS
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFRES OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
34
RET
0
NATIONAL
104OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE
FRES QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KHRISTIAN MARTINQBPORTAL · MARYLAND
482ND YR2345★3—
JAYDEN MANDALQBRET
463RD YR3046★3—
DEAGAN ROSEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
JONATHAN CRAFTQBRET
351ST YR—39★3—
JACOB CHAMBERSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—59★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4854%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
4071%10%
SECONDARYDB
4865%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
46
RET
40
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
54
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
FRES OFFENSIVE LINEn=1860% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GINO QUINONESOLRET
564TH YR—48★3+43 2024
PAT BARNETTOLTRUE FR
524TH YR—9★3—
BRAYLAN HENDERSONOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
BEN BAKEROLRET
502ND YR——UNR—
JONAH LEAUPEPETELEOLRET
491ST YR—44★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREYLIN PAYNELBRET
614TH YR9345★3-4
JAVANTE MACKEYLBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
583RD YR8945★3-35
TAE WOODYDLPORTAL · UL MONROE
554TH YR5328★3—
JAYLEN HARRISDLTRUE FR
524TH YR2—UNR—
TJ BURKHALTERLBRET
521ST YR1671★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
93OF 138
TAL
32
PERF
48
RET
86
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
54
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
FRES RUNNING BACKSn=1014% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAYSHON LUKERBRET
754TH YR8028★3+19
TARIQ THOMASRBPORTAL · BUCKNELL
493RD YR145★3—
JULIUS GILLICKRBRET
471ST YR1462★3—
BRYSON DONELSONRBRET
433RD YR8724★3-24
ANDREW CHAVEZRBTRUE FR
333RD YR1—UNR—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554854%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454071%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFRESNO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
132OF 138
TAL
23
PERF
35
RET
50
DB
89OF 138
DB RET
65
SECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE
FRES PASS CATCHERSn=2650% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HAROLD DUVALLWRRET
522ND YR2978★3—
JOSIAH FREEMANWRRET
514TH YR——★3+15 2025
GAVIN CORREIATERET
502ND YR—2★2—
JAYON FARRARWRRET
494TH YR47—UNR-16
EZEKIEL AVITWRRET
453RD YR6417★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM35% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREZ MOOREDBRET
584TH YR7017★3-5
JAYDEN BRADLEYDBRET
521ST YR1652★3—
JAYDEN LAWTONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR251★3—
CRAIG ROYAL JR.DBRET
484TH YR59—UNR+33
RYAN NOLANDBRET
474TH YR9445★2+32
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
31.0
45.1
— OFFENSE
29.0
54.2
— DEFENSE
33.0
36.0
SP+ OVERALL
-0.8
-6.5
FPI
-0.9
-8.3
ELO
1591
1438
TALENT
610
625
PRODUCTION
47
45
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.01
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
23
79
DEF EFFICIENCY
78
56
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
87
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
83
26
FINISHING DRIVES
19
73
FIELD POSITION
3
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
65
37
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
PASS RATE
45.6%
40.1%
PACE
35.0s
25.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.4%
68.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.0%
72.4%
PLAYS / GAME
51.5
71.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
11.7%
5.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FRES, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE