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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›FAU @ TLSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
TULSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|CHAPMAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
115FPI
FAUAACFLORIDA ATLANTIC
1-1
29
49
18
68%
97
42
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
79FPI
TLSAAACTULSA
2-0
39
16
37
41%
46
28
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FAU77CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
35
PROE
99
TEMPO
97
EXPLOSIVE35p
35
PROE99p
99
TEMPO97p
97
TLSA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
65
PROE
29
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE65p
65
PROE29p
29
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FAURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICTULSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB62%Gemari SandsRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier TerrellPORTAL · NORTHERN IOWA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL57%Scarlee JeanOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex AtcavageOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaughtry RichardsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Jayshon PlattWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsaad WaseemPORTAL · PURDUE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael KirchTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB44%Chris Keys Jr.S · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerez ReidDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillion WilliamsS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL35%Bryce LangstonDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Brantley Jr.PORTAL · MERCER · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Tyler StolskyPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB9%Zach GibsonQB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBBrady Tillman III · PORTAL ★3 · EDWARD WATERSLeonard Farrow · PORTAL ★3 · FAIRMONT STATEREFILLED
OLBenjamin Galloway · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHAlejandro Schmitt · SIGNEE ★3Aedyn Buchanan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TERJ Garcia II · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENMarcus Vinson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOJahmari Powell-Wonson · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJK Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEBo Simpson-Nealy · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAAmar Reynolds · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKenyon Garner · PORTAL ★3 · LIVINGSTONEJonathan Bax · PORTAL ★3 · TCUREFILLED
LBJoseph Sipp Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASREFILLED
QBDrew Devillier · PORTAL ★3 · RICEJeremiah Daoud · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.086 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.158 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.292 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB57571710051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151366174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE48483450218 OF 21 GRADED
OL55553760215 OF 21 GRADED
DL43435979127 OF 12 GRADED
LB32323650104 OF 10 GRADED
DB515145543315 OF 33 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE29th29
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%26
RECRUITING CLASS#130 · 0/11 BC3
CLASS RANK TREND-51 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
PACE
100100
PASS RATE
3838
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAUZACH KITTLEY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
100100
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
100100
EXPLOSIVENESS
9898
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HAVOC
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSETLSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
57
RET
100
NATIONAL
91OF 136
RET
38
FULL DEFENSETULSA DEFENSE
FAU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN VELTKAMPQBRET
504TH YR9717★3+29
DREW DEVILLIERQBPORTAL · RICE
483RD YR—55★3-49 2025
JORDAN MAGWOODQBRET
512ND YR—42★3—
JEREMIAH DAOUDQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—48★3—
MICHAEL VALENTINOQBRET
313RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4534%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3781%9%
SECONDARYDB
4168%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
55
RET
60
DL
89OF 138
DL RET
34
LB
108OF 138
LB RET
81
FRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE
FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2140% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VINCENT FIACABLEOLRET
644TH YR—60★3+42 2025
BEN GALLOWAYOLTRUE FR
524TH YR—68★3—
AIDEN JONESOLPORTAL · VMI
503RD YR—9★2—
JA'KAVION NONAROLRET
494TH YR—17★3-29 2025
BRADEN CUNNINGHAMOLRET
493RD YR—33★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KYRAN DUHONDLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
573RD YR7885★3-17
AQUAVIOUS DUNBARDLRET
522ND YR3157★3—
TYLER RICHDLRET
513RD YR46—UNR—
THOMAS DAVISDLPORTAL · APP STATE
504TH YR8964★3+44
JAYLEN GEORGEDLTRUE FR
504TH YR3828★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
51
RET
61
DL
89OF 138
DL RET
34
LB
108OF 138
LB RET
81
FRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE
FAU RUNNING BACKSn=739% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KADEN SHIELDS-DUTTONRBRET
613RD YR6454★3+13
LEONARD FARROWRBPORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE
524TH YR2217★3+17
BRADY TILLMAN IIIRBPORTAL · EDWARD WATERS
484TH YR528★3—
ETHAN ERVINRBRET
462ND YR3744★3-50
JOSHUA HARRIOTTRBRET
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554534%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453781%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
48
RET
50
DB
120OF 138
DB RET
68
SECONDARYTULSA DEFENSE
FAU PASS CATCHERSn=2150% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EASTON MESSERWRRET
724TH YR10028★3+26
AJ JOHNSONTETRUE FR
564TH YR—19★3—
BRANDEN HOCHWRRET
532ND YR4553★3+19
KELBY VALSINWRTRUE FR
514TH YR4078★3-25
TUCKER HOLLOWAYWRTRUE FR
504TH YR—64★3+20 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH WILLIAMSSRET
743RD YR9164★3+26
TYSON WILLIAMSSTRUE FR
524TH YR18—UNR—
TY WILLIAMSDBRET
524TH YR399★3—
JD DREWCBRET
504TH YR10039★3-28
ZANE WOODHAMDBRET
504TH YR44—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.5
48.9
— OFFENSE
45.8
53.7
— DEFENSE
33.2
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
-8.0
-4.0
FPI
-10.8
-3.4
ELO
1226
1271
TALENT
593
623
PRODUCTION
34
34
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+8
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
28
31
DEF EFFICIENCY
28
38
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
95
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
30
68
FINISHING DRIVES
38
11
FIELD POSITION
25
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
0
27
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
PASS RATE
54.7%
46.9%
PACE
22.4s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.4%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
59.6%
47.9%
PLAYS / GAME
80.5
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = TLSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE