SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›UNT @ UTSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTH TEXAS
UTSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ALAMODOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
79FPI
UNTAACNORTH TEXAS
1-2
31
93
9
3%
87
20
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
76FPI
UTSAAACUTSA
2-1
48
61
28
67%
17
26
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNT82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
84
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE84p
84
TEMPO87p
87
UTSA32CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
2
PROE
76
TEMPO
17
EXPLOSIVE2p
2
PROE76p
76
TEMPO17p
17
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNTRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.8
NORTH TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH TEXASUTSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Caleb HawkinsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakenzie McGill IIPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKiefer SibleyPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB99%Drew MestemakerPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB99%Trey FieldsLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan WesloskiPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane WhitterLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL94%Braydon NelsonOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabe BlairOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnny Dickson IIIOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE94%Tre Williams IIITE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWyatt YoungPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLandon SidesWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB94%Will Jones IIS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid FisherCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Veawn ArmsteadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL83%Ethan DayPORTAL · UTAH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard Outland Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBriceon HayesDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJahiem White · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIABrendon Haygood · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURINick Osho · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA STATEREFILLED
QBTayven Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · UCFREFILLED
LBChantz Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEZakye Barker · PORTAL ★3 · SMUPARTIAL
OLHenry Fenuku · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIChandler Strong · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNKC Ekwu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDrew Clemens · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHTJ Chukwurah · PORTAL ★3 · BLACK HILLS STATELathon Latiolais · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBPeyton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · EMPORIA STATE UNIVERSITYPeyton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · EMPORIA STATEJa'Bree Bickham · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLChristian Lorenzo · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS STATEWesley Hudson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL OKLAHOMAUdoka Ezeani · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
7.41 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
4.51 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
8.63 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676761042 OF 4 GRADED
RB747459063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626230162111 OF 21 GRADED
OL53533740187 OF 18 GRADED
DL353542162113 OF 21 GRADED
LB3636321394 OF 9 GRADED
DB474741232211 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%62
RECRUITING CLASS#137 · 0/10 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-67 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 49 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
9696
PASS RATE
6565
EXPLOSIVENESS
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HAVOC
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNTNEAL BROWNFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
PACE
8484
PASS RATE
1919
EXPLOSIVENESS
7373
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNT OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
67
RET
0
NATIONAL
61OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE
UNT QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAYVEN JACKSONQBPORTAL · UCF
484TH YR8164★3-4
CHASTON DITTAQBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
452ND YR3017★3+36
CHRIS JIMERSON JR.QBRET
412ND YR665★3—
ZIONDRE WILLIAMSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4440%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
4176%5%
SECONDARYDB
4647%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
65OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
53
RET
40
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
94OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
UNT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1860% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEON JOHNSONOLRET
504TH YR48—UNR—
CHANDLER STRONGOLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
604TH YR—45★3+30 2025
JOHNNY WILLIAMS IVOLPORTAL · MISSOURI
544TH YR—74★3+0 2025
AMARION BERRYOLRET
523RD YR—29★3—
HENRY FENUKUOLPORTAL · MISSOURI
502ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAI LEONARDDLRET
554TH YR8059★3-19
JUSIAH SAMPLETONDLTRUE FR
524TH YR—28★3—
KING JUSTICEDLRET
521ST YR—31★3—
JAMEIAN BUXTONDLRET
514TH YR7665★3-41
JAMES WALLEY JR.LBRET
513RD YR5450★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
74
RET
0
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
94OF 138
LB RET
76
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
UNT RUNNING BACKSn=6100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAHIEM WHITERBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
714TH YR9564★3+26
BRENDON HAYGOODRBPORTAL · MISSOURI
502ND YR2264★3-38
NICK OSHORBPORTAL · INDIANA STATE
504TH YR1428★3—
ADARION NETTLESRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—42★3—
COLIN PAGERBPORTAL · TEXAS
484TH YR——UNR+8 2024
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554440%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454176%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
62
RET
16
DB
105OF 138
DB RET
47
SECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE
UNT PASS CATCHERSn=2184% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CORRI MILLINERWRPORTAL · UAB
624TH YR7817★3+31
TJ CHUKWURAHWRPORTAL · BLACK HILLS STATE
524TH YR—28★3—
BREC LONGTEPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
514TH YR255★3—
GRAYSON O'BARAWRPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
494TH YR—2★3—
JOSIAH MARTINWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
483RD YR4376★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM53% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM UPSHAW JR.SRET
523RD YR4269★3—
XAVIER WALTONSTRUE FR
504TH YR—17★3—
JOEL ROGERSSPORTAL · LSU
502ND YR2264★3—
ASAAD CHAPMANCBTRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
NATE ROBINSON JR.STRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.9
53.5
— OFFENSE
53.6
64.8
— DEFENSE
28.3
42.1
SP+ OVERALL
-8.1
2.1
FPI
-2.3
-1.7
ELO
1646
1506
TALENT
602
656
PRODUCTION
23
49
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+16
−7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.15
0.15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
99
65
DEF EFFICIENCY
44
78
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
78
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
60
6
FINISHING DRIVES
93
75
FIELD POSITION
2
11
TURNOVER MARGIN
91
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
PASS RATE
52.8%
53.7%
PACE
25.0s
30.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
53.5%
53.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.3%
69.1%
PLAYS / GAME
72.0
59.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.0%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNT, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE