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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›TULN @ RICE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TULANE
RICE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
71FPI
TULNAACTULANE
1-1
50
31
36
21%
4
38
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
124FPI
RICEAACRICE
1-1
28
4
40
39%
28
45
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TULN46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
94
PROE
40
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE94p
94
PROE40p
40
TEMPO4p
4
RICE14CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
13
PROE
1
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE13p
13
PROE1p
1
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TULNRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
TULANE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULANERICE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jake RetzlaffQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrendan SullivanQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE79%Johnny PascuzziTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustyn ReidTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShazz PrestonPORTAL · INDIANA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Jack HollifieldOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShadre HurstOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick GrahamOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB71%Javin GordonPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArnold Barnes IIIPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZuberi MobleyPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL54%Santana HopperPORTAL · COLORADO · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan NormanPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre'von McAlpineDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Sam HowardLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarvey Dyson IIIPORTAL · NC STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMo WestmorelandLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB35%Javion WhitePORTAL · HOUSTON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBailey DespanieS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WadsworthDB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrace Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEGabe Daniels · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEGary Hadley Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Keyshaun Coleman · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLGavin Marks · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERTylan George · SIGNEE ★4Aiden Martin · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBJaylin Lucas · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEDJ Dugar Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJake Randle · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJordyn Crites · SIGNEE ★4AJ Westfield · SIGNEE ★3Cayden Dees · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBChan Lumpkin · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Brasher · SIGNEE ★3Zach Dresch · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJustin Agu · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEKajuan Banks · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAOrion Saunders · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULANE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.347 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.69 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.985 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515147072 OF 7 GRADED
RB4747603383 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595951302510 OF 25 GRADED
OL53535043209 OF 20 GRADED
DL45455865209 OF 20 GRADED
LB50503584104 OF 10 GRADED
DB434340662111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%35
RECRUITING CLASS#64 · 2/20 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
88
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TULNWILL HALLFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HAVOC
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTULN OFFENSERICE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
51
RET
0
NATIONAL
110OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSERICE DEFENSE
TULN QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONQBPORTAL · HOUSTON
674TH YR7254★3+6
KADIN SEMONZAQBRET
433RD YR8245★3-1
TRACE JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—50★3—
JAY BEAMONQBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
CADE SCOTTQBRET
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5447%0%
SECONDARYDB
3325%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
53
RET
43
DL
117OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
42OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
TULN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2057% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRESHAM PERRYOLRET
491ST YR—47★3—
GAVIN MARKSOLPORTAL · MERCER
492ND YR—45★3—
JAXON DUCREOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
DOMINIC STEWARDOLRET
492ND YR—63★3—
REESE BAKEROLRET
482ND YR—60★3-34 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE COMBSLBTRUE FR
524TH YR898★2+8
ROBERT ROOKSDLRET
501ST YR2929★3—
AQUANTIS CLEMMONSDLRET
493RD YR69—UNR-28
AJ BROWNDEPORTAL · UAB
494TH YR8144★3—
JO CHAVEZDERET
483RD YR66—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
47
RET
33
DL
117OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
42OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
TULN RUNNING BACKSn=867% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHNNIE DANIELSRBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
614TH YR71—★3+3
MAURICE TURNERRBRET
494TH YR8245★3-19
JAYLIN LUCASRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
484TH YR7778★3+6
DJ DUGARRBTRUE FR
371ST YR—64★3—
JAMAURI MCCLURERBRET
552ND YR—60★3+31 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455447%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
59
RET
30
DB
134OF 138
DB RET
25
SECONDARYRICE DEFENSE
TULN PASS CATCHERSn=2570% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY BROWN-STEPHENSWRRET
544TH YR8584★3-2
TY THOMPSONTERET
514TH YR—45★3—
BREDELL RICHARDSONWRPORTAL · UCF
512ND YR328★3—
GARRETT MMAHATWRRET
504TH YR36—UNR—
ZYCARL LEWIS JR.WRRET
502ND YR5882★3+23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM75% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMIR BENJAMINCBPORTAL · UCLA
522ND YR3745★3—
KYREN CONDOLLCBPORTAL · DUKE
522ND YR2628★3—
BAILEY FLETCHERSRET
522ND YR4241★3—
JERRICK HARPERCBRET
454TH YR——UNR-39 2025
AHRAN OGBORSRET
452ND YR3252★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.4
57.7
— OFFENSE
37.5
64.5
— DEFENSE
33.2
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
-6.0
-15.1
FPI
-0.8
-14.7
ELO
1528
1147
TALENT
665
590
PRODUCTION
37
13
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
−4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
OFF EFFICIENCY
69
6
DEF EFFICIENCY
19
52
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
79
0
FINISHING DRIVES
49
28
FIELD POSITION
1
90
TURNOVER MARGIN
83
26
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
PASS RATE
51.5%
19.2%
PACE
35.0s
30.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.4%
88.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.2%
35.1%
PLAYS / GAME
51.5
60.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TULN, ORANGE = RICE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE