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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›NEV @ NIU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NEVADA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
105FPI
NEVMWCNEVADA
1-2
15
15
33
36%
22
43
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
129FPI
NIUMWCNORTHERN ILLINOIS
0-3
9
3
26
44%
30
39
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NEV33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
67
PROE
11
TEMPO
22
EXPLOSIVE67p
67
PROE11p
11
TEMPO22p
22
NIU17CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
17
PROE
3
TEMPO
30
EXPLOSIVE17p
17
PROE3p
3
TEMPO30p
30
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEVADANORTHERN ILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE86%Jett CarpenterPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJace HenryTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus BellonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB84%Stone CombsPORTAL · RICE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNakian JacksonPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin HarnetiauxPORTAL · RICE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB76%Murvin Kenion IIIDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ OdumsCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdward RhamboDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB58%Caleb RamseurRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Thomas WitteDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan MaldonadoPORTAL · OLE MISS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNelson RopatiDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Andrew MadrigalOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh GrabowskiOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrenton ScottOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB31%Chubba PurdyQB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEDonnie Cheers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEIsaiah Williams · SIGNEE ★3Amari Nash · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBPoasa Utu · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECJ Mooring · SIGNEE ★3Jaxon Cannida · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJaylen Webb · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEJoey Thomas III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBBronwyn Rios · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMatt Perez · SIGNEE ★3Sam Davidson IV · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Nonu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLEthan Newman · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISTerrence Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Colton Hogge · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBDeven Vigue · SIGNEE ★3Reeve Slone · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEVADA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.816 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.222 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB33335510041 OF 4 GRADED
RB5050419775 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3737311322CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL404047016CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL40402283189 OF 18 GRADED
LB38383742104 OF 10 GRADED
DB484833382110 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%18
RECRUITING CLASS#98 · 0/24 BC27
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUROB HARLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEVJEFF CHOATE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
PACE
77
PASS RATE
2626
EXPLOSIVENESS
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEV OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
33
RET
100
NATIONAL
122OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEV QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE DUNCANQBPORTAL · UCLA
523RD YR—82★3+1 2025
AJ BIANCOQBRET
444TH YR—36★3-26 2025
CARTER JONESQBRET
412ND YR5855★3+3
REEVE SLONEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—36★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2561%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
417%0%
SECONDARYDB
4928%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
108OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
40
RET
0
DL
132OF 138
DL RET
61
LB
95OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEV OFFENSIVE LINEn=16100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SNOOP LEOTA-AMAAMAOLRET
504TH YR—17★3+39 2025
JACK FOSTEROLRET
504TH YR—45★3-9 2025
ZACH COCHNAUEROLRET
464TH YR—78★3-9 2025
ETHAN NEWMANOLPORTAL · MEMPHIS
463RD YR—45★3+43 2025
HENRY SELLARDSOLRET
432ND YR—27★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS61% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARI WASHINGTONDTRET
521ST YR3332★3—
MONTREL CANIONDTRET
521ST YR2713★2—
MATTHEW SCARLETTDTTRUE FR
523RD YR9—UNR—
JORDAN BELLAMYDTRET
511ST YR1934★3—
KOLE SNEEDDETRUE FR
503RD YR9—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
50
RET
97
DL
132OF 138
DL RET
61
LB
95OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEV RUNNING BACKSn=73% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER JACKSONRBRET
521ST YR2464★3+33
DOMINIC KELLEYRBRET
482ND YR4442★3+23
KY WOODSRBRET
474TH YR4322★3-4
HERSCHEL TURNERRBRET
463RD YR7845★3-9
JANERIOUS JACKSONRBTRUE FR
383RD YR128★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552561%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45417%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEVADA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
37
RET
13
DB
82OF 138
DB RET
28
SECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE
NEV PASS CATCHERSn=2287% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ ASIASITERET
501ST YR854★3—
MARSHAUN BROWNWRRET
463RD YR7032★3-4
GARY GIVENS IIIWRTRUE FR
413RD YR68—UNR+25
GERICK ROBINSONWRRET
404TH YR—21★3—
DONNIE CHEERSWRPORTAL · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
373RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM72% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIK ARMSTRONGSRET
504TH YR3313★2—
AVERY JONESDBPORTAL · LAFAYETTE
504TH YR1228★3—
AARON WARRENDBTRUE FR
504TH YR9—UNR—
ANDRUW ELLISSRET
501ST YR952★3—
LIAM LINDOCBTRUE FR
504TH YR1145★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.3
43.5
— OFFENSE
42.1
42.6
— DEFENSE
44.6
44.5
SP+ OVERALL
-7.6
-16.9
FPI
-8.4
-17.0
ELO
1441
1240
TALENT
550
537
PRODUCTION
22
11
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−7
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
OFF EFFICIENCY
12
4
DEF EFFICIENCY
37
20
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
51
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
82
FINISHING DRIVES
2
18
FIELD POSITION
27
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
3
44
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
PASS RATE
39.8%
57.3%
PACE
29.8s
29.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.7%
53.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
56.1%
78.1%
PLAYS / GAME
60.3
61.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.1%
8.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEV, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE