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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›SJSU @ AF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAN JOSÉ STATE
AIR FORCE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:00 ET|FALCON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
120FPI
SJSUMWCSAN JOSÉ STATE
2-2
20
53
16
4%
75
48
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
93FPI
AFMWCAIR FORCE
1-1
1
76
0
57%
85
40
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SJSU72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
43
PROE
97
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE43p
43
PROE97p
97
TEMPO75p
75
AF29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
1
PROE
1
TEMPO
85
EXPLOSIVE1p
1
PROE1p
1
TEMPO85p
85
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN JOSÉ STATEAIR FORCE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB98%Isiah RevisDB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen ThomasPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BainerCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB97%Walker EgetPORTAL · DUKE · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier WardQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE95%Danny ScuderoPORTAL · COLORADO · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeland SmithPORTAL · UCLA · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyri ShoelsPORTAL · UTAH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB83%Noah McNeal-FranklinLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan PollardLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaniela LatuLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB81%Steve Chavez-SotoPORTAL · UTAH · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar RadcliffeRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFloyd Chalk IVPORTAL · SOUTHERN UTAH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL58%Peseti LapuahoOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione NomaniOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy LikioOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Vili TaufatofuaDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJireh MoePORTAL · UTAH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBIsaiah Buxton · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEBrian Dukes Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CAL POLYAgenhart Ellis IV · PORTAL ★3 · CAL LUTHERAN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDaniel Rolovich · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEAnthony Ivey · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATECarson Clark · SIGNEE ★3Devin Olmande · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBSkylar Tiatia · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBCourshawn Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrian Tapu · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAIkinasio Tupou · PORTAL ★3 · BYULavaka Taukeiaho · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJayland McGlothen · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEBronx Letuligasenoa · SIGNEE ★3Joseph Terry · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN JOSÉ STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.89 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.439 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
15.48 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959—051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050529473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE434354282011 OF 20 GRADED
OL46463187189 OF 18 GRADED
DL38383763149 OF 14 GRADED
LB36363983157 OF 15 GRADED
DB40406011710 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%26
RECRUITING CLASS#129 · 0/16 BC4
CLASS RANK TREND-25 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AFTROY CALHOUN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
3232
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
PACE
4848
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HAVOC
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSJSU OFFENSEAF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
—
PERF
59
RET
0
NATIONAL
136OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEAIR FORCE DEFENSE
SJSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE WEAVERQBPORTAL · HAWAI'I
514TH YR58—★3-14
ROBERT MCDANIELQBRET
451ST YR—45★3—
DANIEL ROLOVICHQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—58★3—
CJ LEEQBRET
352ND YR—25★3—
HUDSON WYATTQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
2896%0%
SECONDARYDB
3042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
92OF 138
TAL
31
PERF
46
RET
87
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
SJSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1813% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSEPH HARBERTOLRET
464TH YR83—UNR-14
SIMEON AFALAVAOLRET
534TH YR34—UNR—
SIMEON AFALAVAOLRET
534TH YR34—UNR—
LAVAKA TAUKEIAHOOLPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
524TH YR1545★3—
DANIEL MOLENIOLRET
484TH YR60—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAKE FLETCHERLBRET
594TH YR8931★3+13
CHAZ BARNETTDLRET
523RD YR15—UNR—
GRADY FORSYTHEDERET
523RD YR18—UNR—
JAYDEN OQUENDODLRET
504TH YR391★2—
VINNIE CANOSALBRET
483RD YR—20★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
50
RET
94
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
SJSU RUNNING BACKSn=76% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VILIAMI TEURBRET
503RD YR3618★3-30
JABARI BATESRBRET
464TH YR7455★3-16
TYLER JACKLICHRBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
453RD YR209★3—
ISAIAH CARLSONRBTRUE FR
443RD YR1477★3—
SIR AUTRYRBRET
471ST YR—29★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS10% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452896%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
43
RET
28
DB
137OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYAIR FORCE DEFENSE
SJSU PASS CATCHERSn=2072% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARSON CLARKWRTRUE FR
541ST YR2566★3-15
KAMAEHU KOPA-KAAWALAUOLETERET
523RD YR826★3—
JASE NIXWRRET
521ST YR847★3—
JERRY MCCLUREWRPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
513RD YR3788★3-35
MALACHI RILEYWRRET
493RD YR5028★3-37
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROGER JONES JR.DBRET
613RD YR82—UNR+8
MAX MUSTELLDBRET
572ND YR—24★3—
EHIMEN OYAMENDANDBRET
502ND YR27—UNR—
KOREY JOHNSONDBRET
483RD YR72—UNR-22
JORDAN ELIE-STUARTDBRET
452ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.0
58.9
— OFFENSE
45.5
63.4
— DEFENSE
40.4
54.3
SP+ OVERALL
-12.5
-0.1
FPI
-13.2
-5.9
ELO
1393
1423
TALENT
569
272
PRODUCTION
12
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
−39
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
OFF EFFICIENCY
58
90
DEF EFFICIENCY
39
2
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
55
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
8
FINISHING DRIVES
6
82
FIELD POSITION
88
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
7
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
PASS RATE
54.0%
15.4%
PACE
26.1s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.3%
88.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
62.1%
27.3%
PLAYS / GAME
69.0
71.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
6.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SJSU, ORANGE = AF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE