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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›UNLV @ UNM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UNLV
NEW MEXICO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP41|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
87FPI
UNLVMWCUNLV
1-2
60
81
21
15%
71
17
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
55FPI
UNMMWCNEW MEXICO
2-0
19
41
39
58%
68
35
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNLV51CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
37
PROE
44
TEMPO
71
EXPLOSIVE37p
37
PROE44p
44
TEMPO71p
71
UNM40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
34
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE34p
34
TEMPO68p
68
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNLVRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNMRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
NEW MEXICO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUNLVNEW MEXICO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Anthony ColandreaPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE75%Nick ElksnisTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden BradleyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaejon ReynoldsWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Marsel McDuffieLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChief BordersLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan SpellmanLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Jaheem JosephS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew PowdrellPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAamaris BrownDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL62%Reid WilliamsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlani MakiheleOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik McGowanOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Tunmise AdeleyePORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen LeeDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOse EgbaseDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB33%Keyvone LeeRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJackson Arnold · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNDerek Garcia · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETaz Reddicks · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEKeyan Burnett · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJesse Harden · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBJordan Njoku · SIGNEE ★3Ronnell Hewitt Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKyron Chambers · PORTAL ★3 · SMULandyn Cleveland · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATETylen Mathews · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLGriffin Scroggs · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEMalik White · SIGNEE ★3Eli Sanchez · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLHerb Gray · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEAveon Williams · SIGNEE ★3Prin Fox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSkylar Lendsey-Vann · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UNLV
CARRIED COMPOSITE
27.119 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
16.813 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.631 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB585864041 OF 4 GRADED
RB64644310063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE434351612112 OF 21 GRADED
OL47474253218 OF 21 GRADED
DL41414556177 OF 17 GRADED
LB34343650135 OF 13 GRADED
DB47476581188 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE60th60
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%61
RECRUITING CLASS#63 · 0/28 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNMJASON ECK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
PACE
2222
PASS RATE
3333
EXPLOSIVENESS
5555
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9595
HAVOC
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNLVDAN MULLEN2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
4141
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNLV OFFENSEUNM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
58
RET
0
NATIONAL
67OF 136
RET
19
FULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UNLV QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEX ORJIQBRET
484TH YR4145★3-44
JACKSON ARNOLDQBPORTAL · AUBURN
474TH YR8664★3-4 2025
SEBASTIAN CIRCOQBRET
351ST YR—37★3—
DEREK GARCIAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—68★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6683%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5787%0%
SECONDARYDB
5182%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
83OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
47
RET
53
DL
18OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
36OF 138
LB RET
87
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UNLV OFFENSIVE LINEn=2147% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRIFFIN SCROGGSOLPORTAL · APP STATE
554TH YR—45★3+39 2025
ED HAYNESOLRET
522ND YR—46★3—
BJ TOLOOLTRUE FR
493RD YR9036★3+42
JOE METZGEROLPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
494TH YR259★3—
COLTON THOMASSONOLPORTAL · BAYLOR
483RD YR4885★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAXTON ECKLBRET
814TH YR8445★3+12
DARREN AGUDERET
714TH YR9217★3+10
MERCURY SWAIMLBRET
504TH YR66—UNR-32
ELIJAH BRODYDERET
493RD YR43—UNR—
XAVIER SLAYTONDTRET
494TH YR5545★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
64
RET
100
DL
18OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
36OF 138
LB RET
87
FRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UNLV RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAI'DEN THOMASRBRET
664TH YR99—UNR+19
JAYLON GLOVERRBRET
494TH YR9645★3-20
DARRIEN JONESRBRET
383RD YR917★3—
KAMRAN WILLIAMSRBRET
381ST YR—83★3—
SKYLAR VANNRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556683%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455787%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
43
RET
61
DB
69OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYNEW MEXICO DEFENSE
UNLV PASS CATCHERSn=2139% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAESHAUN LYONSWRRET
563RD YR5545★3+24
KAYDEN MCGEEWRRET
502ND YR3652★3—
TAZ REDDICKSWRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
503RD YR8578★3+1
KEYAN BURNETTTEPORTAL · ARIZONA
504TH YR7864★3-30
PEYTON ZACHARYWRTRUE FR
481ST YR1548★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FRANKIE EDWARDS IIICBRET
593RD YR7228★3-22
TAVIAN COMBSSRET
524TH YR939★2+17
KEVIN LONGSTREETSTRUE FR
524TH YR412★3—
AUSTIN BRAWLEYSRET
504TH YR97—UNR+9
CJ MCBEANSRET
482ND YR7262★3+54
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.0
46.1
— OFFENSE
49.6
48.9
— DEFENSE
44.3
43.3
SP+ OVERALL
-2.7
5.0
FPI
-5.1
2.7
ELO
1480
1564
TALENT
696
568
PRODUCTION
61
51
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−14
−38
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
OFF EFFICIENCY
83
44
DEF EFFICIENCY
24
64
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
90
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
21
57
FINISHING DRIVES
81
57
FIELD POSITION
69
63
TURNOVER MARGIN
58
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
PASS RATE
47.1%
33.6%
PACE
26.0s
26.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.3%
68.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.0%
41.9%
PLAYS / GAME
69.3
68.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.4%
5.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNLV, ORANGE = UNM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE