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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›VAN @ FLA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
VANDERBILT
FLORIDA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
43FPI
VANSECVANDERBILT
3-0
70
100
44
35%
28
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
16FPI
FLASECFLORIDA
3-0
93
67
83
69%
64
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
VAN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
41
PROE
80
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE41p
41
PROE80p
80
TEMPO28p
28
FLA71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
93
PROE
56
TEMPO
64
EXPLOSIVE93p
93
PROE56p
56
TEMPO64p
64
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FLARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.4
FLORIDA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTFLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Diego PaviaQB · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL76%Isaia GlassOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase MitchellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce HendersonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Khordae SydnorDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZaylin WoodDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua SinghDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE56%Eli StowersDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre RichardsonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichie HoskinsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Randon FontenettePORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlen SewellS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolbey TaylorCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Langston PattersonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrince KollieLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB10%AJ NewberryPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJared Curtis · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
OLBeau Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEMicah DeBose · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAMitchell Smith · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLBrian Allen · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAJace McCallum · SIGNEE ★3Daryl Campbell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJa'Cory Thomas · PORTAL ★4 · OLD DOMINIONJayvontay Conner · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINATilden Riley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRicardo Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONCollin Flanigan · SIGNEE ★4Bradley Brown · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDaniel Vollmer Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBEvan Hampton · SIGNEE ★4Izayah Lee · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.974 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.256 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.878 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7878856752 OF 5 GRADED
RB56565410084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE75756448229 OF 22 GRADED
OL54546363188 OF 18 GRADED
DL585862602412 OF 24 GRADED
LB585855100115 OF 11 GRADED
DB585874752315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#33 · 5/23 BC76
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FLAJON SUMRALLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
4545
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
1010
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSEFLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
78
RET
67
NATIONAL
34OF 136
RET
41
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA DEFENSE
VAN QUARTERBACKSn=533% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAZE BERLOWITZQBRET
514TH YR3578★3+20
JARED CURTISQBTRUE FR
501ST YR—100★5—
WHIT MUSCHAMPQBRET
413RD YR—69★3—
JACK ELLIOTTQBRET
352ND YR—67★3—
DREW COWARTQBTRUE FR
322ND YR—6★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6088%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
5998%33%
SECONDARYDB
6461%48%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
56OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
54
RET
63
DL
34OF 138
DL RET
88
LB
32OF 138
LB RET
98
FRONT-7FLORIDA DEFENSE
VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1837% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LYNDON COOPEROLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
514TH YR—64★3+34 2025
ORION IRVINGOLRET
504TH YR—45★3-2 2025
GUNNER GIVENSOLRET
494TH YR—28★3—
CADE MCCONNELLOLRET
494TH YR—73★3-2 2025
MITCHELL SMITHOLTRUE FR
491ST YR—88★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRENDAN BETTDLRET
854TH YR7564★3-29
JERAMIAH MCCLOUDDLRET
692ND YR5089★4—
KAMRAN JAMESDLRET
694TH YR8698★4-13
JAMARI LYONSDLRET
644TH YR7186★4-45
MYLES GRAHAMLBRET
613RD YR8598★4-33
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
56
RET
100
DL
34OF 138
DL RET
88
LB
32OF 138
LB RET
98
FRONT-7FLORIDA DEFENSE
VAN RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEDRICK ALEXANDERRBRET
684TH YR9775★3-14
MAKHILYN YOUNGRBRET
604TH YR5810★3+35 2025
JAMEZELL LASSITERRBRET
523RD YR21—UNR+37
EVAN HAMPTONRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—84★4—
GABE FISHERFBRET
544TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556088%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455998%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
75
RET
48
DB
12OF 138
DB RET
61
SECONDARYFLORIDA DEFENSE
VAN PASS CATCHERSn=2252% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'CORY THOMASWRPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
693RD YR7392★4+33
JUNIOR SHERRILLWRRET
664TH YR9856★3+15
JAYVONTAY CONNERTEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
653RD YR5589★3+52
MAURICE VENEYTEPORTAL · MOREHOUSE
523RD YR—28★3—
WALTER TAYLORTETRUE FR
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE THORNTONSRET
654TH YR9885★4+1
J'VARI FLOWERSCBRET
542ND YR6096★4-38
ALFONZO ALLEN JR.SRET
504TH YR6682★3+42
DJ COLEMANSPORTAL · BAYLOR
494TH YR9264★3+16
BEN HANKS IIICBRET
482ND YR4898★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.7
52.5
— OFFENSE
56.3
62.7
— DEFENSE
39.0
42.5
SP+ OVERALL
10.1
19.4
FPI
6.1
16.4
ELO
1742
1668
TALENT
727
891
PRODUCTION
79
86
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
OFF EFFICIENCY
97
55
DEF EFFICIENCY
47
33
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
3
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
23
51
FINISHING DRIVES
100
71
FIELD POSITION
41
78
TURNOVER MARGIN
45
33
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
PASS RATE
50.0%
40.6%
PACE
29.4s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.1%
66.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.4%
61.1%
PLAYS / GAME
61.3
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
8.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = FLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE