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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›ARK @ TEX›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARKANSAS
TEXAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP25|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
77FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-1
74
99
36
14%
96
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#4AP
2FPI
TEXSECTEXAS
2-0
99
62
81
72%
84
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARK61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
63
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE63p
63
TEMPO96p
96
TEX74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
63
PROE
74
TEMPO
84
EXPLOSIVE63p
63
PROE74p
74
TEMPO84p
84
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSASTEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB88%Julian NealDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKani WalkerDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WoodenDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION11 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB86%Taylen GreenDRAFTED · 86% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB76%Mike Washington Jr.DRAFTED · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Xavian Sorey Jr.LB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephen Dix Jr.LB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustus BoonePORTAL · WISCONSIN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Cameron BallDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIan GeffrardPORTAL · TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhillip LeeDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%O'Mega BlakeWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaylen SharpeWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRohan JonesTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL56%Corey Robinson IIOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFernando CarmonaDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE'Marion HarrisOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJahiem Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · TULANEBraydon Lee · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDJalon Copeland · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBAJ Hill · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISHank Hendrix · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBTJ Hodges · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBKhmori House · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAPhoenix Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORBen Bogle · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLHunter Osborne · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIADanny Beale III · SIGNEE ★4Anthony Kennedy Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEChris Marshall · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEDequane Prevo · SIGNEE ★3Jude Hall · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBryant Williams · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISIANATerence Roberson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OUACHITA BAPTISTTucker Young · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.125 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.969 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
21.012 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52528510051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6060733583 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595971362411 OF 24 GRADED
OL66667260225 OF 22 GRADED
DL575774412012 OF 20 GRADED
LB5555704096 OF 9 GRADED
DB54547015249 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE74th74
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%76
RECRUITING CLASS#46 · 3/20 BC66
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 41 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
5656
EXPLOSIVENESS
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HAVOC
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARK OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
52
RET
100
NATIONAL
27OF 136
RET
55
FULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE
ARK QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KJ JACKSONQBRET
523RD YR4285★4+17
AJ HILLQBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
492ND YR—78★3-12 2025
HANK HENDRIXQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—84★4—
BRAEDEN FULLERQBPORTAL · ANGELO STATE
374TH YR—17★3—
CADE TROTTERQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6283%68%
LINEBACKERSLB
7326%27%
SECONDARYDB
6482%71%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
66
RET
60
DL
30OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
10OF 138
LB RET
26
FRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE
ARK OFFENSIVE LINEn=2240% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOBE BRANHAMOLRET
683RD YR—67★3+22 2025
BRYANT WILLIAMSOLPORTAL · LOUISIANA
674TH YR—98★4-2 2025
CADEN KITLEROLRET
554TH YR—64★3+22 2025
KASH COURTNEYOLRET
512ND YR—66★3—
MALACHI BRELANDOLPORTAL · MEMPHIS
504TH YR—64★3+9 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RASHEEM BILESLBPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
924TH YR9598★4+16
COLIN SIMMONSEDGERET
863RD YR93100★5+43
ALEX JANUARYDLRET
683RD YR6983★3-22
HERO KANUDLRET
604TH YR8289★3-1
IAN GEFFRARDDLPORTAL · ARKANSAS
584TH YR8197★4-34
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
60
RET
35
DL
30OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
10OF 138
LB RET
26
FRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE
ARK RUNNING BACKSn=865% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SUTTON SMITHRBPORTAL · MEMPHIS
614TH YR8564★3+7
BRAYLEN RUSSELLRBRET
603RD YR7088★4+5
JASPER PARKERRBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
512ND YR3864★3-5
CAM SETTLESRBRET
502ND YR—66★3—
TJ HODGESRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556283%68%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457326%27%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
59
RET
36
DB
12OF 138
DB RET
82
SECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE
ARK PASS CATCHERSn=2464% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN PLATTTERET
583RD YR6892★4+20
JAMARI HAWKINSWRPORTAL · MEMPHIS
574TH YR—64★3+1 2025
DONOVAN FAUPELWRPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
534TH YR9345★3-3
JELANI WATKINSWRPORTAL · LSU
503RD YR1764★3—
CHRIS MARSHALLWRPORTAL · BOISE STATE
504TH YR8978★3-16
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BO MASCOEDBPORTAL · RUTGERS
884TH YR9495★4+6
JELANI MCDONALDDBRET
714TH YR9597★4+15
WARREN ROBERSONDBRET
523RD YR5391★4+43
DEREK WILLIAMS JR.DBRET
503RD YR8164★3+16
KADE PHILLIPSDBRET
492ND YR5699★5+11
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.6
46.6
— OFFENSE
49.4
54.6
— DEFENSE
47.9
38.6
SP+ OVERALL
1.5
25.0
FPI
-1.7
30.1
ELO
1490
1916
TALENT
745
985
PRODUCTION
68
96
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+11
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.26
0.61
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
OFF EFFICIENCY
92
31
DEF EFFICIENCY
9
69
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
83
91
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
34
81
FINISHING DRIVES
79
28
FIELD POSITION
85
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
4
73
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
PASS RATE
56.7%
49.3%
PACE
22.9s
25.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.2%
59.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.4%
68.9%
PLAYS / GAME
78.5
72.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.8%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARK, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE