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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›HOU @ WVU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
HOUSTON
WEST VIRGINIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MILAN PUSKAR STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#22AP
33FPI
HOUB12HOUSTON
2-0
59
44
87
81%
58
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
61FPI
WVUB12WEST VIRGINIA
2-0
65
21
61
14%
61
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
HOU39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
42
PROE
17
TEMPO
58
EXPLOSIVE42p
42
PROE17p
17
TEMPO58p
58
WVU38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
44
PROE
10
TEMPO
61
EXPLOSIVE44p
44
PROE10p
10
TEMPO61p
61
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WVURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.1
WEST VIRGINIA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHOUSTONWEST VIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB82%Dean ConnorsRB · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStacy SneedRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJMarion BurnetteRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL63%Dalton MerrymanOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemetrius HunterOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew WykoffOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%Eddie Walls IIIDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarlos Allen Jr.DL · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Latrell McCutchin Sr.DB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWrook BrownDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZelmar VedderDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB36%Jalen GarnerLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey Platt Jr.PORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE34%Tanner KoziolDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB6%Zeon Chriss-GremillionPORTAL · TULANE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBMakhi Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONJohn Hebert · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLAnthony Boswell · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOShadre Hurst · PORTAL ★3 · TULANERhett Gray · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAshton Porter · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONEjiroghene Egodogbare · PORTAL ★3 · YALEDe'Marion Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJavion White · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEJames Henderson III · SIGNEE ★3Javen Holmes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBryson Castile · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETrent Walker · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEMuizz Tounkara · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJeremiah Bushnell · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBKeisean Henderson · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.475 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.562 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.873 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262959762 OF 6 GRADED
RB515171773 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE5757724922CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL676760017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL50506162166 OF 16 GRADED
LB40406069156 OF 15 GRADED
DB57575865257 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE59th59
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%49
RECRUITING CLASS#38 · 4/19 BC72
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 18 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WVURICH RODRIGUEZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
33
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HOUWILLIE FRITZ3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
1313
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHOU OFFENSEWVU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
62
RET
97
NATIONAL
43OF 136
RET
8
FULL DEFENSEWEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
HOU QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNER WEIGMANQBRET
574TH YR9195★40 2025
KEISEAN HENDERSONQBTRUE FR
501ST YR2100★5—
LUKE CARNEYQBPORTAL · SYRACUSE
492ND YR—28★3—
JAKE SOCKQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
RYAN SMITHQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS78% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5724%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
6353%0%
SECONDARYDB
4812%15%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
22OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
67
RET
0
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
24
LB
18OF 138
LB RET
53
FRONT-7WEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
HOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY BOSWELLOLPORTAL · TOLEDO
773RD YR7785★3+40 2025
DREW TERRILLOLPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
724TH YR—45★3-2 2025
SHADRE HURSTOLPORTAL · TULANE
694TH YR—78★3+41 2025
MCKENZIE AGNELLOOLRET
654TH YR—45★3+46 2025
LARRY CRAWFORDOLRET
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS64% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER STOLSKYLBPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
554TH YR8245★3-14
NATE GABRIELDLRET
533RD YR6860★3-34
ZEKE DURHAM-CAMPBELLDLTRUE FR
494TH YR8817★3+42
DAVID AFOGHOEDGEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
483RD YR7145★3+34
BEN CUTTERLBRET
474TH YR9153★3+16
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
51
RET
7
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
24
LB
18OF 138
LB RET
53
FRONT-7WEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
HOU RUNNING BACKSn=793% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAKHI HUGHESRBPORTAL · OREGON
554TH YR10085★3+6
DJ BUTLERRBRET
503RD YR6062★3-1
RE'SHAUN SANFORD IIRBRET
483RD YR6551★3+28
JOHN HEBERTRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—92★4—
ZANE SMITHRBRET
372ND YR—11★2—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555724%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456353%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHOUSTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
57
RET
49
DB
91OF 138
DB RET
12
SECONDARYWEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE
HOU PASS CATCHERSn=2251% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARE THOMASWRRET
764TH YR10064★3+26
PATRICK OVERMYERTEPORTAL · UTSA
694TH YR7945★3+32
TRENT WALKERWRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
614TH YR9978★3+23
TYSON TURNERWRPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
483RD YR—45★3—
JAQUISE MARTINWRRET
462ND YR—66★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM88% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW POWDRELLSPORTAL · UNLV
674TH YR8345★3-23
JAIRE RAWLISONCBTRUE FR
622ND YR—39★3-23 2025
KAMARI WILSONSPORTAL · MEMPHIS
564TH YR9545★3+5
CHAMS DIAGNECBPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
564TH YR6928★3-27
KEYSHAWN ROBINSONCBRET
523RD YR3665★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.4
52.5
— OFFENSE
54.5
48.3
— DEFENSE
44.2
56.7
SP+ OVERALL
11.6
3.0
FPI
9.2
1.1
ELO
1521
1365
TALENT
696
708
PRODUCTION
73
48
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−20
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.11
0.18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
OFF EFFICIENCY
42
13
DEF EFFICIENCY
54
64
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
43
39
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
95
6
FINISHING DRIVES
40
21
FIELD POSITION
24
66
TURNOVER MARGIN
79
49
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
PASS RATE
37.3%
20.0%
PACE
26.9s
26.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
65.7%
87.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
48.3%
45.2%
PLAYS / GAME
67.0
67.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.2%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HOU, ORANGE = WVU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE