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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›UTAH @ TCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTAH
TCU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AMON G. CARTER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#20AP
19FPI
UTAHB12UTAH
2-0
58
95
53
68%
58
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
41FPI
TCUB12TCU
1-1
72
84
64
22%
65
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UTAH54CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
77
PROE
26
TEMPO
58
EXPLOSIVE77p
77
PROE26p
26
TEMPO58p
58
TCU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
43
PROE
81
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE43p
43
PROE81p
81
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UTAHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.4
UTAH won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAHTCU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL79%Tanoa TogiaiOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaren KumpOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb LomuDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Dallen BentleyDRAFTED · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan DavisWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ BuchananPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL69%Jonah Lea'eaPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAliki VimahiDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan FanoDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Tao JohnsonPORTAL · UCLA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake CottonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSmith SnowdenPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Lander BartonLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLevani DamuniLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB31%NaQuari RogersRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Isaac WilsonPORTAL · COLORADO · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLIsaiah Kema · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEKelvin Obot · SIGNEE ★5Mataalii Benjamin · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEBraden Pegan · PORTAL ★4 · UTAH STATEKyri Shoels · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEPARTIAL
DLEthan Day · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASLucas Samsula · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGJireh Moe · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJames Chenault · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAJames Chenault Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAAisa Galea'i · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBPreston Pitts · SIGNEE ★3LaGary Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBSteve Chavez-Soto · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATELaMarcus Bell · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBKane Archer · SIGNEE ★3Michael Johnson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.747 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.448 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.756 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB80807610052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464886585 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE666666392214 OF 22 GRADED
OL797971601910 OF 19 GRADED
DL545473671812 OF 18 GRADED
LB59596797106 OF 10 GRADED
DB545471572514 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%55
RECRUITING CLASS#27 · 3/16 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+32 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 17 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTAHMORGAN SCALLEYFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTAH OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
76
PERF
80
RET
100
NATIONAL
42OF 136
RET
37
FULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE
UTAH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEVON DAMPIERQBRET
844TH YR9178★3-4
BYRD FICKLINQBRET
582ND YR3470★3+33
BRANDON ROSEQBPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
444TH YR5378★3-41
KANE ARCHERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—75★3—
MICHAEL JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
4664%0%
SECONDARYDB
5389%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
71
PERF
79
RET
60
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
75OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
UTAH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1940% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CEDRIC JEFFERSONOLPORTAL · MONTANA STATE
493RD YR—45★3—
ALEX HARRISONOLRET
554TH YR—65★3—
ROGER ALDERMANOLRET
544TH YR—80★3—
KEITH OLSONOLRET
544TH YR—60★3—
ISAIAH KEMAOLPORTAL · OHIO STATE
521ST YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PAUL OYEWALEEDGERET
534TH YR9078★3-22
MICHAEL TEASON JR.LBRET
524TH YR3264★3—
MICHAEL SHORTLBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
514TH YR5564★3—
KELTEN MICKELLDTRET
504TH YR26—UNR—
JOHN SCHOBELEDGERET
492ND YR3176★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
64
RET
65
DL
100OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
75OF 138
LB RET
64
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
UTAH RUNNING BACKSn=835% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WAYSHAWN PARKERRBRET
823RD YR9495★4+21
STEVE CHAVEZ-SOTORBPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
622ND YR6085★3+3
DANIEL BRAYRBRET
612ND YR4669★3+28
LAMARCUS BELLRBTRUE FR
521ST YR—82★3—
MATEAKI HELURBRET
442ND YR—67★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554174%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454664%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
66
RET
39
DB
59OF 138
DB RET
89
SECONDARYTCU DEFENSE
UTAH PASS CATCHERSn=2261% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRADEN PEGANWRPORTAL · UTAH STATE
784TH YR8997★4+21
KYRI SHOELSWRPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
574TH YR—64★3+9 2025
HUNTER ANDREWSTERET
533RD YR2780★3-42
LARRY SIMMONSWRRET
534TH YR8885★3+27
NOAH BENNEETEPORTAL · WEBER STATE
524TH YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMEL JOHNSONSRET
704TH YR9984★4+6
KYLIN JACKSONSRET
584TH YR5964★3+27
JULIUS SIMMSSRET
532ND YR4965★3—
DEVYN HIDROGOSRET
523RD YR2775★3—
RYAN YAITESSRET
494TH YR—45★3+4 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
48.5
42.2
— OFFENSE
60.8
42.3
— DEFENSE
36.3
42.2
SP+ OVERALL
14.8
11.3
FPI
15.1
6.3
ELO
1874
1598
TALENT
696
731
PRODUCTION
79
77
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
+5
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.12
0.22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
96
68
DEF EFFICIENCY
77
63
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
35
FINISHING DRIVES
95
69
FIELD POSITION
57
35
TURNOVER MARGIN
66
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
PASS RATE
40.3%
49.3%
PACE
26.9s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.5%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
44.0%
62.2%
PLAYS / GAME
67.0
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
9.7%
4.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTAH, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE