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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›CLEM @ DUKE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CLEMSON
DUKE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 19:30 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP39|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
42FPI
CLEMACCCLEMSON
2-1
89
58
78
41%
28
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
35FPI
DUKEACCDUKE
3-0
50
86
15
17%
59
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CLEM44CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
18
PROE
87
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE18p
18
PROE87p
87
TEMPO28p
28
DUKE70CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
68
PROE
82
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE68p
68
PROE82p
82
TEMPO59p
59
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CLEMRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.3
CLEMSON won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
DUKE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCLEMSONDUKE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB83%Cade KlubnikDRAFTED · 83% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB73%Adam RandallDRAFTED · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL64%Peter WoodsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. ParkerDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMonte CapehartDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Blake MillerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan LinthicumC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan LeighOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Ricardo JonesPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvieon TerrellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil BarnesPORTAL · GEORGIA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Wade WoodazDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Antonio WilliamsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh SappTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTait Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Brock Bradley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChris Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SMUREFILLED
DLLondon Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOMarkus Strong · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMADevarrick Woods · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChance Barclay · SIGNEE ★4Leo Delaney · SIGNEE ★4Grant Wise · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBDonovan Starr · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNElliot Washington II · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEPolo Anderson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Reilly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TENaeem Burroughs · SIGNEE ★4Gordon Sellars III · SIGNEE ★4Connor Salmin · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CLEMSON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.781 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.486 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.365 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171916162 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353897274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE62629398268 OF 26 GRADED
OL61618980216 OF 21 GRADED
DL575788562212 OF 22 GRADED
LB585879100125 OF 12 GRADED
DB565672562011 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO52%89
RECRUITING CLASS#20 · 10/22 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 11 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMANNY DIAZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
8383
EXPLOSIVENESS
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLEM OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
91
PERF
71
RET
61
NATIONAL
93OF 136
RET
51
FULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE
CLEM QUARTERBACKSn=639% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTOPHER VIZZINAQBRET
504TH YR5297★4-23
TAIT REYNOLDSQBTRUE FR
481ST YR1882★3—
CHRIS DENSONQBRET
522ND YR—79★3—
TRENT PEARMANQBRET
384TH YR——UNR—
BROCK BRADLEYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—55★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6690%24%
LINEBACKERSLB
53100%9%
SECONDARYDB
4834%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
61
RET
80
DL
17OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
51OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE
CLEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EASTON WAREOLRET
522ND YR—86★4—
ELYJAH THURMONOLRET
523RD YR—92★4—
CHAPMAN PENDERGRASSOLRET
514TH YR——UNR—
HARRIS SEWELLOLRET
504TH YR—94★4+5 2025
MASON WADEOLRET
503RD YR—76★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE MERGOTTLBRET
573RD YR8653★3-5
TYSHON REEDDERET
553RD YR5760★3+3
PRESTON WATSONDTRET
543RD YR7473★3-19
KOBE SMITHDERET
542ND YR4374★3—
NICK MORRIS JR.LBRET
514TH YR7863★3-8
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
61OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
53
RET
72
DL
17OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
51OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE
CLEM RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JOHNSON JR.RBPORTAL · SMU
584TH YR6078★3+33
JARVIS GREENRBRET
514TH YR3167★3-19
DAVID EZIOMUMERBRET
473RD YR4088★4+31
GIDEON DAVIDSONRBRET
472ND YR5497★4+5
JAY HAYNESRBRET
584TH YR—64★3+33 2024
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556690%24%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4553100%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECLEMSON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
32OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
62
RET
98
DB
96OF 138
DB RET
34
SECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE
CLEM PASS CATCHERSn=262% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYANT WESCO JR.WRRET
743RD YR9198★4+25
T.J. MOOREWRRET
653RD YR9799★4+4
OLSEN PATT-HENRYTERET
544TH YR6585★4+2
GORDON SELLARS IIIWRTRUE FR
481ST YR—94★4—
CHRISTIAN BENTANCURTERET
473RD YR—97★4-29
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM66% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN FLOWERSCBPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
784TH YR6278★3-29
DASHAWN STONESRET
593RD YR9560★3-4
EVAN SMITHCBPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
524TH YR6264★3-33
LEON GRIFFIN IIISRET
503RD YR—51★3—
KALEB LANIERCBRET
481ST YR—66★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.7
57.9
— OFFENSE
39.1
61.6
— DEFENSE
32.3
54.1
SP+ OVERALL
8.1
6.9
FPI
6.1
9.1
ELO
1560
1656
TALENT
863
668
PRODUCTION
84
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+13
−15
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.52
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
OFF EFFICIENCY
53
78
DEF EFFICIENCY
86
31
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
81
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
14
16
FINISHING DRIVES
68
83
FIELD POSITION
30
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
40
87
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
PASS RATE
51.6%
36.0%
PACE
29.4s
27.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.9%
69.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
47.6%
PLAYS / GAME
61.3
66.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.2%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLEM, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE