SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›NCSU @ FSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NC STATE
FLORIDA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
61FPI
NCSUACCNC STATE
1-2
77
89
43
60%
48
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
39FPI
FSUACCFLORIDA STATE
1-2
85
96
58
40%
48
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NCSU61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
73
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE73p
73
TEMPO48p
48
FSU56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
99
PROE
21
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE99p
99
PROE21p
21
TEMPO48p
48
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.0
FLORIDA STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATEFLORIDA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB90%Caden FordhamLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCian SloneLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTra ThomasLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Justin JolyDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah RogersWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell AndersonWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Sabastian HarshDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Soares Jr.PORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon ClevelandDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Hollywood SmothersPORTAL · TEXAS · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL54%Jalen GrantOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacarrius PeakOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Carter Jr.G · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB28%Devon MarshallCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamel JohnsonCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Lex ThomasPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBPopo Aguirre · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIRaul Aguirre Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIZiggy Moore · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEHunter Provience · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEJoshisa Trader · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIAmiri Acker · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamaad Lewis · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Satchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDylan McCoy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrody Smith · SIGNEE ★3Tre Aiken · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKing Mack · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEOndre Evans · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJordyn Best · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.843 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.443 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.749 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB64648510052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6262745994 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE555564412611 OF 26 GRADED
OL66666766239 OF 23 GRADED
DL47476970106 OF 10 GRADED
LB46466748248 OF 24 GRADED
DB50507567239 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%78
RECRUITING CLASS#49 · 2/26 BC64
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-6 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
3939
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
64
RET
100
NATIONAL
48OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ BAILEYQBRET
603RD YR9085★4+23
WILL WILSONQBRET
522ND YR1879★3—
TAD HUDSONQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
424TH YR—45★3-40 2025
HUDSON WILHARMQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARKER THOMPSONQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5666%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5739%14%
SECONDARYDB
5857%25%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
66
RET
66
DL
48OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
36OF 138
LB RET
39
FRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2334% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATRON EVANSOLPORTAL · MARSHALL
374TH YR—64★3—
JOSIAH VICTOROLRET
—2ND YR—55★3—
OMARIAN ABRAHAMOLRET
—2ND YR—59★3—
TEAGUE ANDERSENOLRET
654TH YR9728★3-13
JIMARION MCCRIMONOLPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
594TH YR9164★3+5
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JONESLBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
763RD YR9164★3-51
MANDRELL DESIRDLRET
712ND YR65100★4+35
DEANTE MCCRAYDLRET
604TH YR9678★3-6
DANIEL LYONSDLRET
564TH YR9082★3+5
DEAMONTAE DIGGSDLRET
524TH YR7292★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
62
RET
59
DL
48OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
36OF 138
LB RET
39
FRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=941% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN SCOTTRBRET
603RD YR6881★3+2
DARIUS JOHNSONRBRET
494TH YR99★2—
DAVION GAUSERBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
483RD YR7364★3-14
JONATHAN PAYLORRBRET
473RD YR—96★4—
DEANDRE DESINORRBRET
472ND YR182★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555666%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455739%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
55
RET
41
DB
32OF 138
DB RET
57
SECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2659% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VICTOR SNOWWRPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9864★3+16
DAVION DOZIERWRPORTAL · APP STATE
574TH YR7545★3+31
VANDER PLOOGTEPORTAL · OREGON
522ND YR1364★3—
PRESTON DOUGLASTERET
512ND YR2765★3—
HUNTER PROVIENCETEPORTAL · MONTANA STATE
494TH YR1389★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MA'KHI JONESDBPORTAL · DUKE
682ND YR6378★3+25
ASHLYND BARKERDBRET
584TH YR8598★4+32
MAX REDMONDBRET
521ST YR2470★3—
ANTONIO CROMARTIE JR.DBRET
521ST YR2838★3—
CJ RICHARD JR.DBPORTAL · ILLINOIS STATE
502ND YR3678★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.3
48.1
— OFFENSE
47.4
57.7
— DEFENSE
37.2
38.6
SP+ OVERALL
8.0
7.7
FPI
2.0
7.8
ELO
1510
1553
TALENT
757
800
PRODUCTION
69
75
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+6
+16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.35
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
51
88
DEF EFFICIENCY
65
59
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
89
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
76
FINISHING DRIVES
96
63
FIELD POSITION
77
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
23
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
PASS RATE
47.7%
43.1%
PACE
27.7s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.0%
67.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
74.6%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
65.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE